I recently asked "What sector of the restaurant, grocery or convenience stores sector will see the greatest volatility from the rapid rise of commodity prices? Up or down any ideas for Q4 2009?" Chris Mitchell responded with great insight” Discretionary spending commodities will be impacted mostly. High end restaurants, high margin grocery products and c-stores in general. Q4 will see the beginning of the end of the recession if . . . food harvests this summer are average or better.The great depression was as bad as it was for an important reason. The great dust bowl destroyed crops and turned an economic recession into the depression and contributing to the extended length of time it covered. With a good harvest and without more serious difficulties in the recovery plan, Q4 will be the best Quarter in 2009. 2010 will return to normal to slow growth. That is my prediction. “I have to admit that I was raised in the Midwest and heard about and watched the crop report with interest. It does play a major role in our continued economic slump. My personal concern is gas prices, they will squeeze the consumer and sales of all other things will slip.
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