The
restaurant industry is unforgiving. Menu inflation, labor costs, shifting
consumer expectations, and delivery-first competitors have left many brands
scrambling according to Steven Johnson Grocerant
Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice
Solutions®. Three familiar names — MOD
Pizza, Outback Steakhouse, and Applebee’s — once rode strong growth
curves but now face the hard reality of sales declines, shrinking unit counts,
and customer drift.
Here’s
a look at what happened, backed by data, and what they’re doing to come back.
Growth to Shrinkage: The Hard Numbers
·
MOD Pizza
o 2023:
~553 units, $699M in U.S. sales.
o 2024:
sales down ~13%+, unit count slipping.
o Action:
Selling off corporate stores and moving to a franchise-first model to improve
unit economics.
·
Outback Steakhouse (Bloomin’ Brands)
o Parent
company portfolio: ~1,450 restaurants.
o Multiple
quarters of negative same-store sales in 2023–24.
o Action:
Closed ~41 underperforming locations, simplifying menus by 10–20% of items,
focusing back on steak & core offerings.
·
Applebee’s (Dine Brands)
o ~1,500–1,600
U.S. units, slowly declining.
o Q4
2024 comps down 4.7%, annual comps negative.
o Action:
Repossessed 47+ struggling franchise units, launching remodels (“Lookin’
Good”), testing dual-brand Applebee’s + IHOP sites, tightening promo strategy.
Where They Lost Their Way
1. Value
Confusion – Too many shifting promotions
diluted trust. Guests want clear everyday value, not promo fatigue.
2. Menu
Bloat – Outback admitted as much, cutting 10–20% of menu items
after operational complexity hurt execution.
3. Franchise
/ Corporate Inconsistency – MOD and Applebee’s both saw
performance gaps as corporate stores were sold or repossessed. Customers notice
uneven service more than executives think.
4. New
Competition – Fast casual pizza, delivery-first
brands, and grocerant options (ready-to-eat meals at retail) blurred category
boundaries.
The Comeback Plays
·
MOD Pizza
is refranchising, banking on local operators to sharpen execution. Success
depends on strict franchise standards.
·
Outback Steakhouse
is pruning weaker stores and doubling down on its hero items — steak, Bloomin’
Onion, Aussie hospitality — while streamlining ops.
·
Applebee’s
is leaning into remodels, sharper marketing, and a clearer value ladder to
reframe itself as a dependable neighborhood choice.
Each
strategy is about discipline: fewer, better items; tighter value messaging; and
renewed consistency.
Insights from the Grocerant Guru®
1. Focus
on Hero Items. Consumers remember three things per
daypart. Execute those flawlessly and consistently.
2. Stabilize
Value Architecture. Everyday value builds traffic; promos
should be occasional margin plays, not the norm.
3. Digitally
Driven Consistency. Loyalty apps, mobile ordering, and
pickup execution now shape guest loyalty more than TV ads.
4. Local
Tests, National Scale. Let franchisees experiment in
controlled pilots. If they work, scale fast but keep standards tight.
Think About This
MOD
Pizza, Outback, and Applebee’s show us the dangers of brand drift: unchecked
menu expansion, promo fatigue, and inconsistent execution. Their recovery will
hinge not on flashy campaigns but on operational discipline, value clarity,
and renewed consumer focus.
For
operators and marketers alike, the lesson is clear: know your core, execute it
relentlessly, and don’t chase every trend at the expense of brand trust.
Elevate Your Brand with Expert Insights
For
corporate presentations, regional chain strategies, educational forums, or
keynote speaking, Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, delivers
actionable insights that fuel success.
With
deep experience in restaurant operations, brand positioning, and strategic
consulting, Steven provides valuable takeaways that inspire and drive
results.
💡
Visit GrocerantGuru.com or FoodserviceSolutions.US
📞 Call 1-253-759-7869
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