The Home Pantry Is Dying: Legacy Center-Store Food Sales Are Losing Relevance to Grocerant Fresh Food

 

The idea that the home pantry remains the heart of American eating habits is no longer defensible according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®. Across the U.S., traditional center-store grocery categories — the very foundation of pantry staples — are losing dollar velocity and unit volume, even as consumers continue to eat as much food as before, just from different sources.

This is more than anecdote. It is supported by measurable declines in center-store performance and consumer purchasing behavior — and by the commercial struggles of legacy pantry brands that once dominated grocery aisle real estate.

 

The Numbers Tell the Story: Center-Store Declines by the Percent

Recent industry data paint a consistent picture:

·       Overall center-store unit sales declined 5.3% in the 52 weeks ending June 2024 — and down 7% in unit volume year-over-year — even as retailers contend with price pressure and inflation-driven spending shifts.

·       A typical grocery shelf is now 7% less productive than it was in 2022 — underscoring that many legacy categories are under-performing relative to their space allocation.

·       While overall grocery dollar sales show modest growth, unit volume growth remains muted, reflecting consumers bought fewer items even as prices rose.

·       Historically reliable category volume growth has slowed dramatically: between 2021-2023 volume sales across food & beverage CPG markets declined around 6% even as value sales grew modestly via inflation.

Taken together, these trends reflect a consumer shift away from buying large quantities of pantry staples — in favor of smaller, fresher, more immediate, and often prepared food solutions.

 

Where Legacy Pantry Brands Are Struggling

Here are five globally recognized legacy center-store pantry brands whose core product lines are under pressure:

·       Hunt’s (Conagra Brands) — face suppressed demand for canned tomato and cooking categories as consumers favor fresh sauces, ready meals, and refrigerated culinary kits.

·       Heinz — traditional shelf-stable condiment and sauce units have softened as consumers shift to fresh sauces, refrigerated dressings, and premium meal components.

·       Del Monte Foods — its core canned fruit and vegetable business has suffered prolonged volume declines, contributing to financial stress and restructuring.

·       Campbell Soup Company — reported repeated declines in canned soup and shelf-stable meal platforms, driving increased innovation in fresh and refrigerated soups.

·       General Mills boxed meals and baking staples — a core pantry segment, have struggled with weak velocity compared with fresh refrigerated meal kits and grab-and-go offerings.

For many of these brands, legacy pantry stalwarts no longer deliver the growth or relevance they once did, strictly because consumer buying behavior has evolved rapidly around convenience, freshness, and immediacy.

 

The Consumer Has Replaced the Pantry — Not the Meal

Contrary to the simplistic narrative that consumers are eating less at home, what is happening is:

·       Household decision drivers have changed from bulk pantry planning to just-in-time meal fulfillment.

·       Consumers are reducing food waste risk by minimizing over-purchasing of shelf-stable items.

·       Older shopping models (big weekly shop, pantry stocking) are being replaced by frequent smaller trips, takeout, delivery, and grocerant solutions.

The modern consumer thinks in terms of today’s meals — not inventory for the shelf.

It's a Battle for 

SHARE OF STOMACH 

Five Reasons Grocery Shopping Takes Too Long (and Erodes Consumer Value)

Traditional grocery trips are increasingly perceived as inefficient, time-intensive experiences. Key friction points include:

1.       Large Store Footprints
Long aisles and sprawling categories add minutes to simple trips.

2.       SKU Proliferation
Deep SKUs slow decision-making — especially for busy shoppers who want fewer, not more, choices.

3.       Checkout Friction
Even self-checkout does not fully eliminate transition time compared with off-premise alternatives.

4.       Search and Navigation Costs
Finding specific center-store items takes effort many consumers want to avoid.

5.       Meal Assembly Burden Returned to Consumer
Buying ingredients still requires prep, planning, and cleanup — unlike ready-to-eat alternatives.

In contrast, drive-thru’s, grocerant prepared foods, and delivery services minimize time costs and cognitive load.

 

Three Channels Filling the Pantry Gap

As traditional pantry purchases weaken, consumers are sourcing meal solutions from channels built for speed, convenience, and immediacy.

1. Drive-Thru Restaurants

·       Deliver complete meals in minutes without shopping friction.

·       Serve as planned meal solutions rather than occasional treats.

·       Popular chains are increasingly offering meal bundles that consumers incorporate into weekly eating patterns.

2. Third-Party Delivery Platforms

·       Collapse discovery, choice, and fulfillment into one digital interaction.

·       Provide meals from restaurants that can serve as family meals, leftovers, and multi-occasion solutions.

·       The eGrocery segment is also growing robustly, with online grocery services up nearly 28% year-over-year in June 2025, signaling consumer preference for minimal effort grocery fulfillment.

3. Convenience Stores with Fresh Food Programs

·       Fresh prepared foods now generate significant share of retail food volume in top c-stores (Wawa, Sheetz, Casey’s).

·       Serve commuters and impulse buys with fresh, portion-relevant options.

·       Compete directly with traditional grocery for quick meal fulfillment.

 

Four Grocerant Guru® Insights: What Legacy Pantry Brands Must Do to Stay Relevant

1.       Reframe Around Meals — Not Storage
Products must solve a meal time need (taste, convenience, immediacy), not just fill shelf space.

2.       Invest in Ready-to-Eat/Refrigerated Platforms
Fresh and refrigerated offerings — including chef-crafted heat-and-serve options — outperform legacy shelf categories in relevance and growth potential.

3.       Collaborate with Grocerants and Foodservice Channels
Strategic partnerships can reposition brands closer to consumption occasions.

4.       Emphasize Portion and Occasion Relevance
Singles and small households are the fastest-growing demographic — legacy packaging must adapt.

 

Think About This: The Pantry Has Not Receded — It Has Transformed

The home pantry is not shrinking because people eat less. It is shrinking because consumers now think in terms of meals, occasions, and immediate convenience — not stockpiles of shelf goods.

Legacy pantry brands and traditional grocery must adapt or lose category relevance. The next era of food retail will be defined not by aisle length, but by prepared food velocity, convenience innovation, and consumer experience — the hallmarks of the grocerant movement.

Success Leaves Clues—Are You Ready to Find Yours?

One key insight that continues to drive success is this: "The consumer is dynamic, not static." This principle is the foundation of our work at Foodservice Solutions®, where Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, has been helping brands stay relevant in an ever-evolving market.

Want to strengthen your brand’s connection with today’s consumers? Let’s talk. Call 253-759-7869 for more information.

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