2026 Food Price Forecast: Relief or Rebound? CPI Data Reveal What Shoppers Will Face Across Grocery, Convenience, and Restaurant Sectors

 

As 2025 wraps up, labor statistics and industry forecasts point to continued food price inflation in 2026 — but at moderated levels compared with recent years. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that overall food prices rose about 2.6 percent over the last year, with food at home (grocery store purchases) up 1.9 percent and food away from home (restaurant meals) up 3.7–3.9 percent in late 2025.

USDA-linked forecasting models and macroeconomic estimates currently anticipate that food price inflation will continue into 2026 but slow relative to recent peaks, with baseline food CPI inflation likely around 2.3–3.3 percent for 2026.

Below is a sector-specific breakdown of three reasons prices might come down in 2026 and three reasons prices may not — followed by a short, current price forecast and implications for consumers.

 

Grocery Stores

Reasons Grocery Prices Might Come Down

1. Inflation Has Moderated Compared to Recent Years
Annual CPI growth for food at home has slowed to under 2 percent in late 2025, a material decrease from the double-digit surges seen earlier in the decade. Continued normalization in agricultural supply chains could further ease upward pressure.

2. Supply Chain Stabilization
As global supply chains continue to strengthen and freight/logistics bottlenecks ease, cost pass-through to retail may weaken, enabling retailers to keep list prices stable or offer targeted price promotions.

3. Private-Label and Data-Driven Pricing Strategies
Retailers are increasingly using private-label programs and data analytics to optimize stocks and reduce mark-ups on staples — an efficiency that may translate to localized price relief.

Reasons Grocery Prices May Not Come Down

1. Baseline Food Price Inflation Continues
Most forecasts still see grocery prices increasing in 2026. USDA-linked CPI projections put food-at-home inflation at roughly +2.3 percent for 2026 — indicating prices are still expected to rise year-over-year.

2. Input Cost Volatility (Protein, Dairy, Produce)
Commodities such as beef, eggs, and dairy have shown persistent supply variability. Elevated input costs often continue to be passed through to retail.

3. Tariff and Trade Pressures
Import tariffs and regulatory costs can raise baseline costs for fresh produce and specialty goods, reinforcing baseline price growth even if inflation eases overall.

Grocery Price Forecast (2026)

·       Food at Home CPI projected ~ +2.3 percent in 2026.

·       Meats & Poultry subcomponents likely higher than average CPI, given recent trends.

 

Convenience Stores

Reasons Convenience Store Prices Might Come Down

1. Competitive Value Pressure
Price-sensitive consumers are increasingly browsing across channels, encouraging convenience retailers to offer lower headline prices or promotional bundles to maintain volume.

2. Expanded Fresh & Ready-to-Eat Options
Retailers introducing fresh prepared foods and private-label snacks at competitive price points can help stabilize average price levels.

3. Loyalty and Bundling Mechanics
Rewards programs and bundled pricing help mitigate consumers’ effective cost even if sticker prices remain flat.

Reasons Convenience Store Prices May Not Come Down

1. Narrow Margins & High Operating Costs
Convenience retailers typically operate on thin margins with significant fixed costs (rent, labor). These retailers often pass inflation straight to customers.

2. Food-Away-From-Home Inflation Trends
CPI data show that food away from home — including many convenience prepared foods — continued to rise faster than grocery prices (near +3.7–3.9 percent in 2025).

3. Immediate Need Purchases Carry Inelastic Pricing
Consumers are willing to pay a premium for immediacy, reducing price elasticity and limiting downward price movement.

Convenience Store Price Forecast (2026)

·       Prepared food & beverage CPI expected to continue carrying premium inflation (similar to broader food-away-from-home trends), in the +3.0 to +4.0 percent range.

 

Restaurants

Reasons Restaurant Prices Might Come Down

1. Slowing Menu Price Inflation
Recent industry data show menu price inflation slowing compared to the strongest periods of post-pandemic hikes; competitive dynamics may intensify as traffic softens.

2. Consumer Traffic & Value Deals
Lower discretionary spending can force restaurants — particularly quick service and limited-service segments — to lean on value offerings and promotions.

3. Operational Efficiencies
Adoption of more efficient ordering tech, labor management tools, and smaller menus can reduce cost pressure and support more competitive pricing.

Reasons Restaurant Prices May Not Come Down

1. Labor & Service Costs Remain Elevated
Restaurants face fixed wage and operating costs that are structurally higher than in prior decades — costs that are difficult to reduce without degrading service.

2. Restaurant CPI Exceeds Grocery CPI
Food away from home CPI has historically run above grocery store inflation; in late 2025 it was ~+3.9 percent, and similar momentum into 2026 is expected.

3. Value Perception Allows Premium Pricing
Consumers may pay a premium for convenience and experience, limiting the extent to which operators discount menus.

Restaurant Price Forecast (2026)

·       Food Away From Home CPI expected roughly +3.3 percent in 2026 under USDA-linked projections.

·       Full-service dining may see higher than average CPI growth compared with limited-service.

 

Grocerant Guru® Perspective: What Consumers Will Feel in 2026

Consumers will feel moderated increases, not broad price reductions. After a string of heightened food inflation, the trend for 2026 is toward slower price growth. Grocery store prices are expected to rise in the ~2–3 percent range, convenience store prepared foods in the ~3–4 percent range, and restaurant pricing near ~3+ percent — all below recent peaks but still upward.

Discontinuity in shopping behavior will accelerate.

1.       Shoppers will shift spending more toward value-oriented grocery retailers and away from higher premium restaurant meals when price differentials are significant.

2.       Convenience stores will compete more aggressively on prepared, value-oriented fare, and loyalty programs will become decisive in capturing repeat spend.

3.       Restaurants that innovate on bundled pricing, limited menus, and digital ordering will capture demand even amid tighter budgets — while full-service operators that resist value-oriented pricing risk traffic declines.

Who wins in 2026?

·       Grocery retailers with strong private-label portfolios and digital commerce/fulfillment will attract the broadest share of consumer food spend.

·       Convenience stores that sharpen fresh and affordable meal combos will retain high-frequency buyers.

·       Restaurants that lean into value-driven offerings and tech-enabled efficiencies may hold share, even while base menu prices continue to climb modestly.

In 2026, food price relief will not be dramatic; instead, shoppers will see slower increases across categories — a calibration toward historical norms rather than a return to pre-inflation price levels.

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With deep experience in restaurant operations, brand positioning, and strategic consulting, Steven provides valuable takeaways that inspire and drive results.

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International Restaurant Chains Invading North America, Why Global Food Brands Like Jollibee Are Winning While U.S. Chains Stall on Innovation

 

Why Global Food Brands Like Jollibee Are Winning While U.S. Chains Stall on Innovation

By the Grocerant Guru®

For the better part of the past decade, North America has quietly become the most attractive growth market in global foodservice. Slowing population growth, rising labor costs, and mature real estate have challenged domestic restaurant chains—but those same pressures have created a wide-open runway for international restaurant brands built on food discovery, menu differentiation, and operational discipline.

No brand illustrates this moment better than Jollibee, the Philippines-based fried chicken powerhouse that is rapidly moving from cult favorite to mainstream disruptor across the U.S. and Canada.

Jollibee: A Case Study in Global-to-Local Growth

Jollibee’s 2025 transition from a corporate-only U.S. model to a hybrid franchise strategy marks a pivotal inflection point. Since launching franchising in March, the brand has delivered precisely what experienced operators seek in a mature market:

·       Average Unit Volumes (AUVs) exceeding $4.5 million, far above the U.S. QSR chicken category average of roughly $2.1–$2.4 million

·       Proven consumer demand that extends beyond ethnic enclaves into mainstream suburban trade areas

·       A menu that blends comfort familiarity (fried chicken) with global flavor cues (sweet-style marinades, gravy-forward sides, rice-based plates)

The opening of Jollibee’s first U.S. franchise in Queens, followed by multi-unit agreements in Staten Island, Sacramento, and Dallas–Fort Worth, underscores a broader truth: operators are chasing brands with built-in discovery appeal, not incremental line extensions of tired domestic concepts.

Jollibee Is Not Alone: Four Other Global Chains Winning in North America

Jollibee’s momentum is part of a much larger pattern. Several international brands are successfully penetrating North America by exploiting the same innovation gap left by legacy U.S. chains:

1.       Nando’s (South Africa / UK)
Flame-grilled peri-peri chicken transformed a commodity protein into a flavor-led experience. Nando’s U.S. units routinely outperform casual-dining chicken peers by emphasizing spice customization, fresh preparation, and experiential dining.

2.       Tim Hortons (Canada)
Long dismissed as “just coffee,” Tim Hortons has expanded aggressively in the U.S. by pairing value-driven beverages with globally inspired bakery and savory platforms—outflanking legacy donut chains that failed to modernize menus.

3.       Haidilao Hot Pot (China)
While many U.S. casual dining chains cut service to save labor, Haidilao doubled down on theater, hospitality, and communal dining, turning meals into social experiences that younger consumers actively seek.

4.       Pret A Manger (UK)
Pret capitalized on the convergence of foodservice and retail by delivering fresh, chef-driven food with speed—years ahead of U.S. chains now scrambling to retrofit similar “fast fresh” models.

The Core Issue: Lack of Innovation in U.S. Restaurant Chains

The success of these international brands highlights a painful reality for many U.S. legacy chains:

·       Menu innovation has slowed to LTO shuffling rather than platform reinvention

·       Flavor risk has been minimized, leaving consumers bored and disengaged

·       Operational efficiency has replaced culinary excitement as the primary growth lever

While global brands introduced new sauces, formats, proteins, and eating occasions, many U.S. chains spent the last decade debating drive-thru times, shrinking portions, and reducing labor. The result is predictable: customer migration toward brands that deliver discovery, authenticity, and emotional engagement.

In today’s food culture economy, consumers—especially Millennials and Gen Z—are not loyal to logos. They are loyal to newness, story, and flavor credibility. Jollibee wins because it offers something most U.S. chains no longer do: a reason to be curious.

Why Discovery Drives Migration

Food discovery is no longer accidental; it is intentional. Social media, food tourism, and global travel have trained consumers to expect cross-cultural menus and bold flavor profiles. International brands arrive with:

·       Deep culinary heritage rather than committee-built menus

·       Global supply chain leverage

·       Confidence to lead with differentiated food, not apologize for it

That combination creates instant relevance—and explains why Jollibee’s franchising pipeline is filling faster than many domestic brands with decades of U.S. presence.

Grocerant Guru® Insights: How to Build Food Discovery Into Your Brand

To compete in this new reality, U.S. restaurant chains must fundamentally rethink growth. Incrementalism is no longer enough.

1. Innovate Platforms, Not Promotions
Discovery comes from new eating occasions, sauces, formats, and meal constructions—not from rotating the same ingredients into limited-time offers.

2. Globalize Flavor, Localize Execution
Borrow globally, execute locally. Consumers want authenticity, but they also want accessibility. Jollibee proves you can do both at scale.

3. Treat Food as Media
Menus should spark conversation. If your food does not photograph well, share well, or travel well, it will not drive organic growth.

4. Design for Migration, Not Retention Alone
Legacy chains focus on keeping existing customers. Growth leaders focus on stealing customers by offering something competitors cannot.

5. Operational Excellence Must Enable Creativity
Efficiency should support innovation—not replace it. The best global brands pair discipline with imagination.

Final Thought from the Grocerant Guru®

International restaurant chains are not “invading” North America by accident. They are filling a vacuum created by years of underinvestment in food innovation by U.S. chains. Jollibee’s success is not about fried chicken—it is about joy, discovery, and courage in menu strategy.

Until U.S. restaurant brands rediscover how to excite consumers with food first, the global players will continue to eat their lunch—one bold, flavorful bite at a time.

Are you trapped doing what you have always done and doing it the same way?  Interested in learning how www.FoodserviceSolutions.us can edify your retail food brand while creating a platform for consumer convenient meal participation, differentiation and individualization?  Email us at: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or visit:  www.FoodserviceSolutions.us for more information.

WinCo Foods and the Legacy Growth Paradox: Why the Middle of Grocery Is Shrinking While Value Wins

 

For more than half a century, the U.S. grocery industry has been defined by scale, assortment, and operational efficiency. Yet in today’s inflation-aware, value-driven food economy, clarity of purpose—not size alone—is determining growth according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®. Few retailers illustrate this better than WinCo Foods, a quietly powerful player whose disciplined model continues to outperform expectations while much larger competitors remain trapped in the “middle.”

 

WinCo Foods: Built for Value Before Value Was Fashionable

Founded in 1967 in Boise, Idaho, as Waremart, WinCo Foods was designed from day one to do one thing exceptionally well: sell food at the lowest sustainable price. Long before “EDLP” became a marketing slogan, WinCo operationalized it through:

·       Warehouse-style stores

·       Limited marketing spend

·       No credit card fees

·       Lean labor models

·       High employee engagement through a long-standing Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP)

Today, WinCo operates approximately 140 stores across 10 states, primarily in the Western and Mountain regions. Despite its regional footprint, WinCo generates nearly $10 billion in annual revenue, growing at roughly 5% annually, outperforming the overall grocery market’s growth rate of about 3%.

From a Grocerant Guru standpoint, WinCo represents a structurally advantaged food retailer, not a promotional one. Its model is not dependent on weekly ads, loyalty gimmicks, or margin erosion—it is engineered around everyday value.

 

The Legacy Grocery Growth Sector: Big, Slow, and Squeezed

The U.S. grocery sector now exceeds $1.6 trillion in annual sales, yet it is one of the most mature and margin-constrained categories in retail. Growth is uneven and increasingly concentrated.

·       The top 10 grocery retailers control over 70% of total U.S. grocery spend

·       Walmart alone commands more than 21% market share

·       Kroger (~8.5%) and Albertsons (~5%) remain large but face declining share trends

·       Costco (~8.4%) continues to gain share through bulk economics and loyalty

The key takeaway: scale no longer guarantees growth.

Legacy grocers—Kroger, Albertsons, and even Walmart—are caught between:

·       Hard discounters winning on price (Aldi, Lidl, WinCo)

·       Warehouse clubs winning on unit economics (Costco, Sam’s Club)

·       Specialty and experience players winning on differentiation

This leaves traditional supermarkets occupying an increasingly uncomfortable middle ground.

 

Aldi, Lidl, and WinCo: Different Paths, Same Advantage

Aldi

·       Operates 2,200+ U.S. stores

·       Opening 200+ stores annually, the fastest expansion pace in its history

·       Approximately 90% private-label penetration

·       Smaller stores, fewer SKUs, lower labor per store

Aldi’s U.S. growth rate materially exceeds the grocery average, driven by consumers trading down without sacrificing quality.

Lidl

·       Roughly 180–200 U.S. stores

·       Slower but strategic expansion

·       Strong differentiation via curated assortment and European imports

·       Competitive pricing reinforced by private label

WinCo

·       Fewer stores, but larger baskets

·       Broad national brand presence and bulk foods

·       Strong fresh departments at warehouse economics

·       Consistently rated among the highest value grocery retailers by consumers

All three share a critical trait: they are not trying to be everything to everyone.

 

Price Reality: The Basket Tells the Story

When shoppers compare food baskets—not promotions—the results are telling.

Multiple regional studies and consumer panels consistently show:

·       WinCo’s average basket often prices below Walmart

·       WinCo dramatically undercuts Kroger and Albertsons on staples

·       Aldi and WinCo sit at the lowest end of the price spectrum for full grocery shops

·       Traditional supermarkets carry a persistent price premium, even after loyalty discounts

Approximate value hierarchy (everyday pricing):

1.       Aldi ≈ WinCo

2.       Costco / Sam’s Club (bulk)

3.       Walmart

4.       Kroger / Albertsons

For consumers managing food inflation fatigue, price clarity matters more than assortment breadth.

 

Why the Middle Is the Problem

From the Grocerant Guru perspective, the strategic issue facing Walmart, Kroger, and Albertsons is not execution—it is positioning.

1. Cost Structures Are Working Against Them

Large legacy chains operate:

·       Bigger stores

·       Higher SKU counts

·       More labor

·       More promotional dependency

These costs are difficult to unwind without fundamentally changing the business model.

2. Value Players Are Redefining Expectations

Consumers increasingly accept:

·       Fewer SKUs

·       More private label

·       Less service
In exchange for consistent savings, not temporary discounts.

3. Loyalty Programs Don’t Fix Structural Disadvantages

Digital coupons and personalization may slow defections, but they do not reset price perception. Shoppers know where value lives—and they are adjusting routines accordingly.

 

Grocerant Guru®: Three Strategic Insights

Insight #1: Value Is Structural, Not Promotional

WinCo, Aldi, and Lidl win because their entire operating model supports low prices. Legacy chains attempt to compete tactically, but the advantage is baked into the discount model.

Insight #2: The Middle Will Continue to Hollow Out

As food budgets tighten and private label acceptance rises, retailers without a clear price or experience advantage will continue to lose traffic. The middle is not defensible without reinvention.

Insight #3: Growth Will Come from Clarity, Not Complexity

WinCo proves that regional scale, employee alignment, and food-first economics can outperform national giants. The future belongs to grocers who know exactly who they serve—and why.

 

Think About This

WinCo Foods is not a disruptor chasing headlines—it is a disciplined operator executing a timeless grocery truth: sell food people want at prices they trust. As legacy grocery players struggle to redefine themselves, WinCo, Aldi, and Lidl are quietly capturing the most valuable commodity in food retail today—share of stomach through share of wallet.

That is not a trend.
That is a structural shift.

Success Leaves Clues—Are You Ready to Find Yours?

One key insight that continues to drive success is this: "The consumer is dynamic, not static." This principle is the foundation of our work at Foodservice Solutions®, where Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, has been helping brands stay relevant in an ever-evolving market.

Want to strengthen your brand’s connection with today’s consumers? Let’s talk. Call 253-759-7869 for more information.

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