The Home Pantry Is Dying: Legacy Center-Store Food Sales Are Losing Relevance to Grocerant Fresh Food

 

The idea that the home pantry remains the heart of American eating habits is no longer defensible according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®. Across the U.S., traditional center-store grocery categories — the very foundation of pantry staples — are losing dollar velocity and unit volume, even as consumers continue to eat as much food as before, just from different sources.

This is more than anecdote. It is supported by measurable declines in center-store performance and consumer purchasing behavior — and by the commercial struggles of legacy pantry brands that once dominated grocery aisle real estate.

 

The Numbers Tell the Story: Center-Store Declines by the Percent

Recent industry data paint a consistent picture:

·       Overall center-store unit sales declined 5.3% in the 52 weeks ending June 2024 — and down 7% in unit volume year-over-year — even as retailers contend with price pressure and inflation-driven spending shifts.

·       A typical grocery shelf is now 7% less productive than it was in 2022 — underscoring that many legacy categories are under-performing relative to their space allocation.

·       While overall grocery dollar sales show modest growth, unit volume growth remains muted, reflecting consumers bought fewer items even as prices rose.

·       Historically reliable category volume growth has slowed dramatically: between 2021-2023 volume sales across food & beverage CPG markets declined around 6% even as value sales grew modestly via inflation.

Taken together, these trends reflect a consumer shift away from buying large quantities of pantry staples — in favor of smaller, fresher, more immediate, and often prepared food solutions.

 

Where Legacy Pantry Brands Are Struggling

Here are five globally recognized legacy center-store pantry brands whose core product lines are under pressure:

·       Hunt’s (Conagra Brands) — face suppressed demand for canned tomato and cooking categories as consumers favor fresh sauces, ready meals, and refrigerated culinary kits.

·       Heinz — traditional shelf-stable condiment and sauce units have softened as consumers shift to fresh sauces, refrigerated dressings, and premium meal components.

·       Del Monte Foods — its core canned fruit and vegetable business has suffered prolonged volume declines, contributing to financial stress and restructuring.

·       Campbell Soup Company — reported repeated declines in canned soup and shelf-stable meal platforms, driving increased innovation in fresh and refrigerated soups.

·       General Mills boxed meals and baking staples — a core pantry segment, have struggled with weak velocity compared with fresh refrigerated meal kits and grab-and-go offerings.

For many of these brands, legacy pantry stalwarts no longer deliver the growth or relevance they once did, strictly because consumer buying behavior has evolved rapidly around convenience, freshness, and immediacy.

 

The Consumer Has Replaced the Pantry — Not the Meal

Contrary to the simplistic narrative that consumers are eating less at home, what is happening is:

·       Household decision drivers have changed from bulk pantry planning to just-in-time meal fulfillment.

·       Consumers are reducing food waste risk by minimizing over-purchasing of shelf-stable items.

·       Older shopping models (big weekly shop, pantry stocking) are being replaced by frequent smaller trips, takeout, delivery, and grocerant solutions.

The modern consumer thinks in terms of today’s meals — not inventory for the shelf.

It's a Battle for 

SHARE OF STOMACH 

Five Reasons Grocery Shopping Takes Too Long (and Erodes Consumer Value)

Traditional grocery trips are increasingly perceived as inefficient, time-intensive experiences. Key friction points include:

1.       Large Store Footprints
Long aisles and sprawling categories add minutes to simple trips.

2.       SKU Proliferation
Deep SKUs slow decision-making — especially for busy shoppers who want fewer, not more, choices.

3.       Checkout Friction
Even self-checkout does not fully eliminate transition time compared with off-premise alternatives.

4.       Search and Navigation Costs
Finding specific center-store items takes effort many consumers want to avoid.

5.       Meal Assembly Burden Returned to Consumer
Buying ingredients still requires prep, planning, and cleanup — unlike ready-to-eat alternatives.

In contrast, drive-thru’s, grocerant prepared foods, and delivery services minimize time costs and cognitive load.

 

Three Channels Filling the Pantry Gap

As traditional pantry purchases weaken, consumers are sourcing meal solutions from channels built for speed, convenience, and immediacy.

1. Drive-Thru Restaurants

·       Deliver complete meals in minutes without shopping friction.

·       Serve as planned meal solutions rather than occasional treats.

·       Popular chains are increasingly offering meal bundles that consumers incorporate into weekly eating patterns.

2. Third-Party Delivery Platforms

·       Collapse discovery, choice, and fulfillment into one digital interaction.

·       Provide meals from restaurants that can serve as family meals, leftovers, and multi-occasion solutions.

·       The eGrocery segment is also growing robustly, with online grocery services up nearly 28% year-over-year in June 2025, signaling consumer preference for minimal effort grocery fulfillment.

3. Convenience Stores with Fresh Food Programs

·       Fresh prepared foods now generate significant share of retail food volume in top c-stores (Wawa, Sheetz, Casey’s).

·       Serve commuters and impulse buys with fresh, portion-relevant options.

·       Compete directly with traditional grocery for quick meal fulfillment.

 

Four Grocerant Guru® Insights: What Legacy Pantry Brands Must Do to Stay Relevant

1.       Reframe Around Meals — Not Storage
Products must solve a meal time need (taste, convenience, immediacy), not just fill shelf space.

2.       Invest in Ready-to-Eat/Refrigerated Platforms
Fresh and refrigerated offerings — including chef-crafted heat-and-serve options — outperform legacy shelf categories in relevance and growth potential.

3.       Collaborate with Grocerants and Foodservice Channels
Strategic partnerships can reposition brands closer to consumption occasions.

4.       Emphasize Portion and Occasion Relevance
Singles and small households are the fastest-growing demographic — legacy packaging must adapt.

 

Think About This: The Pantry Has Not Receded — It Has Transformed

The home pantry is not shrinking because people eat less. It is shrinking because consumers now think in terms of meals, occasions, and immediate convenience — not stockpiles of shelf goods.

Legacy pantry brands and traditional grocery must adapt or lose category relevance. The next era of food retail will be defined not by aisle length, but by prepared food velocity, convenience innovation, and consumer experience — the hallmarks of the grocerant movement.

Success Leaves Clues—Are You Ready to Find Yours?

One key insight that continues to drive success is this: "The consumer is dynamic, not static." This principle is the foundation of our work at Foodservice Solutions®, where Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, has been helping brands stay relevant in an ever-evolving market.

Want to strengthen your brand’s connection with today’s consumers? Let’s talk. Call 253-759-7869 for more information.

Stay Ahead of the Competition with Fresh Ideas

Is your food marketing keeping up with tomorrow’s trends—or stuck in yesterday’s playbook? If you're ready for fresh ideations that set your brand apart, we’re here to help.

At Foodservice Solutions®, we specialize in consumer-driven retail food strategies that enhance convenience, differentiation, and individualization—key factors in driving growth.

👉 Email us at Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us
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'Potbelly Pantry' Did not go Far Enough

Restaurants around the world are trying to drive sales anyway that they can and as regular readers of those blog know selling pantry items for the home cook is a great idea conceived, elevated, and encouraged if not promoted, right here by Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

So, when Potbelly Sandwich Shop is launched Potbelly Pantry our team had to take a deeper drive.  Potbelly Pantry enables customers the ability to stock up on Potbelly staples, the ilk of its famous hot peppers, fresh hand-sliced meats, cheeses, breads and even pre-portioned A Wreck and Italian sandwich ingredients. Out team wondered is that enough? Do customers want to build ‘A Wreck’?

Potbelly Executive Chef Ryan LaRoche, stated “Now you can get our fresh, delicious ingredients in bulk at Potbelly.com. Because life’s too short to miss out on great sandwiches.” Hungry and housebound Potbelly Pantry shoppers are able to keep the fridge stocked with exclusive Potbelly ingredients and sides:

Delicious hand-sliced, fresh deli meats and savory cheeses

Pre-layered and portioned meats for both A Wreck® and Italian sandwiches

Potbelly’s signature breads, designed to be toasted at home

Chips and bottled beverages

Potbelly’s famous Hot Peppers

Note: The fresh deli meats come in one-pound servings, cheeses are packaged in 10-ounce servings and signature breads are assembled in packs of six loaves to be toasted at home. Potbelly Pantry is available exclusively through Potbelly.com  and the Potbelly app at participating locations. All deliveries include tamper-proof stickers to ensure safety.

So, what’s missing?  It’s clear to the meal at Foodservice Solutions® the since of discovery.  The what else can I make? If I had just one more item what could I make?  What would complement each and everyone of those items.  Clearly the team at Potbelly has not been reading or following our blog.  Success does leave clues and Potbelly has missed quite a few according to our team.

Are you ready for some fresh ideations? Do your food marketing ideations look more like yesterday than tomorrow? Interested in learning how Foodservice Solutions® can edify your retail food brand while creating a platform for consumer convenient meal participation, differentiation and individualization?  Email us at: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or visit us on our social media sites by clicking the following links: Facebook,  LinkedIn, or Twitter

In a Battle for Share of Stomach

Customer Touch Points Matter

Pollo Tropical Looks at Grocerant Heat-N-Eat

Back in the day Foodservice Solutions® Grocerant Guru® based at Tacoma, WA Steven Johnson was the first to identify, quantify, qualify, the undercurrent of the fastest growing food sales sector today and named it the Grocerant niche and was first published in a Nation’s Restaurant News article in August 1996, titled: They Call Them Grocerants.  

Johnson has long advocated that restaurants expand their brands into the ‘Frozen Food Court’, Ready-2-Eat, and Heat-N-Eat fresh prepared food grocerant niche.   Pollo Tropical launch of the Pollo Pantry, is an entrance into the grocerant niche that if done right will edify the Pollo Tropical brand with consumers according to Johnson.

Customer relevance for Pollo Tropical includes bold fresh craveable flavors including, citrus-marinated chicken ready-to-cook in their home kitchens.  Grocerant niche offering are consumer convenience solutions that save time, add flavor, without all of the hard cook from scratch work.

Pollo Tropical is offering its pantry menu at the drive thru and through take out at more than 140 participating Florida locations. The Pollo Pantry menu launched across Florida on week. The menu items feature’s its fresh, 24-hour citrus-marinated whole chicken for just $5 and six marinated boneless breasts for just $10. That is placing the price, value service equilibrium front and center and will drive incremental sales according to Johnson.

Richard Stockinger, president and Chief Executive Officer of Fiesta Restaurant Group, parent company of Pollo Tropical, stated  “At Pollo Tropical, we’re always looking for ways to better serve our community and during these challenging times, we want to give our guests easy solutions to get quality food they can trust at a great value. Fresh, ready to cook chicken can be hard to find in grocery stores these days, so we made it easy to find at Pollo,” .. “The Pollo Pantry offers guests the marinated chicken they love in a brand-new way and lets them cook it right in their own kitchen for the first time ever.”

Regular readers of this blog know that mix & match meal component offering are a success clue of the grocerant niche. So, tis easy to see why the Pollo Pantry is along with the fresh chicken offerings, is also features its famous ready to eat White Rice and Black Beans in larger-sized packages that can feed up to 10 people for just $5 each. There are no quantity limits and the items can be ordered during all operating hours at each participating Pollo Tropical location. No other discounts or offers can be used as part of the Pollo Pantry pricing. If your brand is seeking new customers, incremental sales consider entering the grocerant niche.

Looking for success clues of your own? Foodservice Solutions® specializes in outsourced food marketing and business development ideations. We can help you identify, quantify and qualify additional food retail segment opportunities, technology, or a new menu product segment.  Foodservice Solutions® of Tacoma WA is the global leader in the Grocerant niche visit us on our social media sites by clicking one of the following links: Facebook,  LinkedIn, or Twitter

Battle for Share of Stomach

At Taco Bell is the Status Quo Good Enough

Taco Bell is going a good job driving top line sales and bottom line profits while expanding its legacy line of CPG groceries products.  That said Taco Bell’s legacy line of products is yesterday’s grocerant niche positioning not today’s or tomorrows according to the team at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®

In case you missed it. Taco Bell will soon be selling tortilla chips inspired by its sauces, but only at grocery stores Starting in May Taco Bell will roll out Classic, Mild and Fire tortilla chips in grocery and convenience stores. The chips take their flavor and packaging inspiration from Taco Bell's signature sauces.

These packaged chips will join the line of dips, sauces, shells and seasoning mixes that Taco Bell sells in partnership with Kraft. We must note that Kraft is a good partner to have if your brand wants to enter the frozen food court or the shelf of a 1970’s mercantile.

Steven Johnson our own Grocerant Guru® as regular readers of this blog know believes that brands need to  create strategic partnerships with new fresh food retailers creating new electricity in order to drive meaningful incremental growth, top line sales, and bottom-line profits.  

In the minds-eye of Johnson, there is one dominate element that will power success at Taco Bell and Yum Brands over the coming years.  Johnson calls it the new electricity that is partnerships specifically strategic partnerships within the fresh food space.   Brand relevance requires looking forward not backward or simply maintaining the status quo.

The new electricity must be very efficient for the supply and includes such things as fresh food, sustainable packaging, urban farming (produce, seafood, etc.), autonomous delivery, cashier-less retail, cash-less payments, digital hand held marketing.

Sustaining the status quo will placate those on Wall Street for a while but not consumers.  Consumers are dynamic not static; Limited Time Offer’s (LTO’s) are just that; a top of mind attention grabber but not the fuel to garner incremental customer migration. 

While the team at Foodservice Solutions® congratulates Taco Bell on expanding its line of CPG products we remind all retailers it’s important to edify your brands relevance with today and tomorrows customers so you look more like a brand of tomorrow than a brand of yesterday.

Are you ready for some fresh ideations? Do your food marketing tactics look more like yesterday that tomorrow?  Visit www.FoodserviceSolutions.us for more information or contact: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us Remember success does leave clues and we just may have the clue you need to propel your continued success.

7-Eleven & Pillsbury Partner on Breakfast

Success does leave clues and when it comes to selling branded food no one has done it better than 7-Eleven according to Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.  Back in the day (1969) 7-Eleven branded the Slurpee, since items the ilk of the Big Bite, Big Gulp have help drive the 7-Eleven store count to over 60, 275 worldwide.

 Recently 7-Eleven partnered with General Mills to launch the new Pillsbury Stuffed Waffle. Each Pillsbury Stuffed Waffle is made of layers of sausage, egg and cheese wrapped in a crispy, maple-flavored waffle. They are available for $2.49 each. This is another in the platform line of hand held food for immediate consumption that 7-Eleven has help elevate the brand with consumers according to Johnson.

The stuffed waffle was designed to cater to millennials' desire for unique taste experiences and offers a perfect combination of savory and sweet, according to the company. The no-mess waffle is also suitable for on-the-go c-store customers.

The new Pillsbury Stuffed Waffle can be found at over 10,700 stores in North American in warming ovens at 7-Eleven convenience stores. Is your company looking for a food item or strategic partnership to help drive branded food sales? Are you ready to edify your brand? Is it time you Drive top line growth and bottom line profits?

Are you trapped doing what you have always done and doing it the same way?  Interested in learning how www.FoodserviceSolutions.us can edify your retail food brand while creating a platform for consumer convenient meal participation, differentiation and individualization?  Email us at: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or visit:  www.FoodserviceSolutions.us for more information.