Warning to Restaurateurs: Your Customer Already Left—Now It's Time to Catch Up Before It's Too Late

 

Restaurant employment numbers don't tell the whole story—but they do tell the truth.

When restaurants and bars shed nearly 33,000 jobs in June 2026, many operators blamed inflation, labor costs, tariffs, or the economy. While all of those issues matter, they're not the primary reason many restaurants are struggling.

The real reason is much simpler.

The customer evolved. Too many restaurant operators didn't.

Today's consumer has fundamentally changed how they shop, order, eat, and define value. Unfortunately, thousands of restaurant operators continue to operate with a business model built around consumer behavior that disappeared years ago.

Consumers haven't stopped buying food.

They've simply shifted where, when, how, and why they buy it.

The Grocerant Guru® has been warning the industry for more than two decades that consumers would increasingly migrate toward Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat fresh prepared foods, portable meal solutions, digital ordering, and personalized meal occasions. Today, that migration is no longer a prediction—it is the marketplace.

The National Restaurant Association reports that restaurant employment remains uneven despite projected industry sales of approximately $1.55 trillion because operators continue balancing labor with inconsistent guest traffic, higher operating costs, and changing consumer demand.

The message couldn't be clearer:

Consumers didn't disappear. They simply found operators who better fit their lifestyle.

The Top 10 Food Facts Every Restaurateur Must Understand

Convenience Has Become the New Competitive Advantage

Consumers increasingly purchase food based upon how quickly it fits into their day—not simply taste.

Speed, portability, digital ordering, curbside pickup, drive-thru, grab-and-go, delivery, and meal bundles now represent competitive necessities rather than optional conveniences.

Convenience is no longer an added benefit.

It is the product.

 

Ready-2-Eat Beats Ready-to-Cook

Consumers are spending less time cooking from scratch.

Instead they increasingly assemble meals using restaurant takeout, grocery prepared foods, convenience stores, club stores and meal components.

The winning retailers understand consumers want to personalize dinner—not prepare dinner.

Mintel consumer research has consistently shown convenience, reduced preparation time, and meal flexibility remain primary purchase drivers across prepared food categories.

 

Value Is No Longer About Lowest Price

Consumers define value differently today.

Value equals:

Quality + Convenience + Portion Size + Customization + Speed + Experience + Portability + Digital Ease.

Simply discounting prices rarely builds long-term loyalty.

Creating perceived value does.

 

The Dining Room Is No Longer the Center of the Business

The customer journey now frequently begins on a smartphone.

Digital ordering, loyalty programs, mobile payment, delivery, pickup shelves and drive-thru windows often generate more incremental traffic than additional dining room seats.

Technology is now part of hospitality.

Not separate from it.

Technomic research continues to show digital ordering and loyalty participation produce higher visit frequency and larger average checks than traditional transactions.

 

Meal Components Outsell Full Meals

Families increasingly buy:

Rotisserie chicken

Prepared proteins

Fresh sides

Salads

Desserts

Beverages

Then customize dinner at home.

Restaurants that package meal components instead of forcing complete meals create greater flexibility while increasing average ticket size.

 

Labor Problems Often Reflect Business Model Problems

Many operators believe staffing shortages caused slower growth.

More accurately...

Outdated operating models require more labor than today's consumer is willing to pay for.

Automation, kiosks, AI scheduling, digital ordering, kitchen display systems and production simplification allow successful operators to produce more sales with fewer labor hours.

Technology is replacing repetitive work—not hospitality.

 

Consumers Eat Across Multiple Channels Every Week

The average household no longer identifies itself as loyal to restaurants or grocery stores.

Instead consumers routinely purchase meals from:

Restaurants

Grocery stores

Convenience stores

Warehouse clubs

Delivery platforms

Meal kits

Coffee chains

Quick-service restaurants

Every food retailer now competes with every other food retailer.

Welcome to the Grocerant Economy.

Limited-Time Offers Create Discovery

Consumers increasingly chase "what's new."

Seasonal products, collaborations, global flavors, premium beverages, spicy offerings and social-media-worthy menu items drive trial far faster than permanent menu additions.

Innovation now generates traffic.

Static menus generate indifference.

 

Data Is Becoming More Valuable Than Real Estate

Operators who understand purchasing behavior, loyalty activity, visit frequency, personalization and menu mix make faster and better business decisions.

Successful restaurants increasingly manage customer data with the same discipline they manage food cost.

 

Evolution Is No Longer Optional

Restaurant employment slowing is a symptom.

Consumer migration is the cause.

The operators growing today aren't waiting for consumers to return.

They're building businesses around where consumers already are.

That difference determines who grows and who disappears.

The June employment report showing restaurants losing approximately 32,900 jobs, following downward revisions to previous months, reflects the industry's cautious response to uneven traffic rather than a collapse in consumer demand. Operators are hiring more selectively while investing in technology, productivity, and alternative service channels.

The Bottom Line

Restaurants have never competed against more alternatives than they do today.

Consumers can order dinner from a supermarket app, pick up prepared meals at a convenience store, subscribe to meal delivery, stop at a warehouse club, purchase restaurant takeout, or assemble dinner from fresh prepared meal components—all within minutes.

The customer has already embraced this new food ecosystem.

The question every restaurateur must answer is simple:

Has your restaurant?

Because evolving isn't optional.

It's inevitable.

And consumers aren't waiting for anyone to catch up.

 

Three Grocerant Guru® Insights

Stop Thinking Like a Restaurant—Start Thinking Like a Food Solution. Consumers buy solutions to meal occasions, not restaurant categories. The winners solve breakfast, lunch, dinner, snacks and family meals wherever those occasions occur.

Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat Fresh Prepared Foods Represent the Fastest Path to Customer Migration. Operators that package fresh meal components, family bundles and portable meal solutions position themselves where consumer demand is expanding—not where it is shrinking.

The Next Competitive Battle Isn't Restaurant vs. Restaurant. It's restaurant versus grocery, convenience stores, club stores, delivery platforms, meal kits and every retailer selling fresh prepared food. The operators that embrace the Grocerant business model will capture tomorrow's consumer, while those clinging to yesterday's operating model risk becoming increasingly irrelevant.

Are you ready for some fresh ideations? Do your food marketing ideas look more like yesterday than tomorrow? Interested in learning how our Grocerant Guru® can edify your retail food brand while creating a platform for consumer convenient meal participation, differentiation and individualization?  Email us at: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or visit: us on our social media sites by clicking one of the following links: Facebook,  LinkedIn, or Twitter

Moe's Southwest Grill Understands Today's Consumers: Build-Your-Own Meal Kits Are the Future of Family Dining

 

While many restaurant brands continue chasing value through discounts and limited-time offers, Moe's Southwest Grill has taken a much smarter path. The introduction of its new Meal Kit XL, designed to feed six to eight people for just $49.99, demonstrates that Moe's understands exactly how today's consumers want to eat, shop, and share meals according to Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA-based Foodservice Solutions®.

The Grocerant Guru® has long maintained that the future of food retail is not simply about lower prices—it's about providing consumers with customizable, Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat meal solutions that fit modern lifestyles. Moe's newest offering is another example of why personalization, portability, and perceived value continue outperforming one-size-fits-all meal deals.

The Meal Kit XL includes two proteins, rice, beans, cheese, lettuce, pico de gallo, Moe's signature queso, chips, and salsa, allowing every member of the family or group to create exactly the meal they want. That level of customization has become one of the strongest drivers of consumer satisfaction in today's restaurant marketplace.

Consumers Want Control

Over the past several years, consumers have fundamentally changed how they define convenience.

They no longer simply want someone else to cook dinner.

They want flexibility.

They want customization.

They want everyone in the family to eat what they prefer without preparing multiple meals.

Perhaps most importantly, they want solutions that reduce stress while still creating an enjoyable meal occasion.

That is precisely what Moe's Meal Kit XL delivers.

According to Circana, nearly 80% of evening meals are now sourced from food prepared at or brought into the home, regardless of where the food was purchased. Consumers are increasingly replacing traditional restaurant dining with meals enjoyed around the kitchen table, in front of the television, during youth sporting events, or at family gatherings. The home has become America's largest restaurant dining room.

Moe's clearly recognizes this consumer migration.

Build-Your-Own Is Becoming the New Value Menu

Traditional value menus built around individual discounted items are no longer enough to drive sustained traffic.

Today's consumers evaluate value differently.

They look at:

·       Variety

·       Portion size

·       Shareability

·       Customization

·       Convenience

·       Leftover potential

·       Overall family affordability

For approximately $6 to $8 per person, Moe's Meal Kit XL delivers restaurant-quality food while allowing each diner to personalize every bite.

That represents outstanding perceived value in today's marketplace.

Technomic recently noted that restaurant operators must discover the "next generation" of value programs because simple price-point promotions have become increasingly difficult to differentiate. Consumers are responding much more favorably to meal bundles and customizable group offerings than another discounted combo meal.

The Grocerant Revolution Continues

The Grocerant Guru® has written for years that consumers are migrating toward meal components rather than complete plated meals.

Instead of everyone eating identical dinners, today's families increasingly assemble meals based upon individual tastes.

One child skips onions.

Dad adds extra protein.

Mom wants more vegetables.

Someone else doubles the queso.

Everyone leaves happy.

That is exactly why build-your-own formats continue gaining momentum.

Moe's joins a growing list of brands recognizing this shift.

Chipotle introduced Build-Your-Own family meals.

Applebee's expanded combination meal offerings.

Chili's continues seeing strong performance from its "3 For Me" platform.

KFC launched its Build-a-Bucket promotion.

Panera, Buffalo Wild Wings, Little Caesars, Habit Burger Grill, Sweetgreen, and Pret A Manger have all expanded customizable bundled offerings because consumers increasingly reward brands that make feeding multiple people easier.

The Real Competition Is Dinner at Home

Many restaurant executives still believe they compete primarily against other restaurants.

The Grocerant Guru® disagrees.

The largest competitor today is what consumers choose to eat at home.

Consumers are asking themselves every afternoon:

"What's for dinner?"

The winning brands are those that eliminate the decision-making process by offering simple, customizable meal solutions that everyone can enjoy.

Moe's understands this.

Rather than asking consumers to order six separate entrées, the company is simplifying the occasion with one purchase that satisfies multiple tastes while reducing ordering friction.

Why This Matters

Consumers continue facing elevated food prices across grocery stores and restaurants. They have become much more intentional with discretionary spending, yet they remain willing to pay for convenience when they perceive genuine value.

Meal kits like Moe's XL deliver exactly that.

They reduce preparation time.

They reduce cleanup.

They encourage family interaction.

They create leftovers.

Most importantly, they transform takeout into an experience rather than merely another transaction.

Brands that combine affordability with personalization are increasingly winning customer loyalty.

Moe's Southwest Grill appears to understand that better than many competitors.

Three Grocerant Guru® Insights

1. Build-Your-Own Beats One-Size-Fits-All. Consumers increasingly want meal components they can customize rather than fixed menu combinations. Personalization has become one of the strongest drivers of repeat visits.

2. Group Meals Drive Higher Average Checks. Family meal bundles and shareable meal kits increase average transaction values while simplifying purchasing decisions, making them profitable for operators and valuable for consumers.

3. The Future Belongs to Ready-2-Eat Meal Solutions. The fastest-growing food retail opportunities continue to center around fresh, Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat meals that combine convenience, customization, portability, and value. Moe's Meal Kit XL is another strong example of how restaurant brands can successfully meet consumers where they increasingly choose to eat—at home.

Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru®
Tacoma, Washington-based Foodservice Solutions®

Banning Surveillance Pricing Won't Save Grocery Stores—Winning Back Consumer Trust and Reinventing Fresh Prepared Foods Will

 

By Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru®
Tacoma, WA-based Foodservice Solutions®

For decades, grocery retailers competed primarily on price. Today, they compete on convenience, time savings, meal solutions, personalization, portability, digital engagement, and trust. New Jersey's decision to become the second state to prohibit surveillance pricing may seem like a setback for retailers seeking new pricing technologies, but in reality it may become an unexpected catalyst that forces supermarkets to focus on what consumers actually value.

Ironically, removing the temptation to pursue AI-driven individualized pricing could ultimately save grocery retailers millions of dollars by redirecting investment toward operational efficiency, fresh prepared foods, and customer loyalty rather than controversial pricing algorithms.

Consumers have spoken. They want value—but they also demand transparency.

The passage of New Jersey's Fair Price Protection Act follows growing public concern surrounding "surveillance pricing," where artificial intelligence and customer data could potentially influence what one shopper pays versus another for identical products. The legislation also places a one-year moratorium on the installation of new electronic shelf labels, slowing adoption of technology many retailers envisioned using for dynamic pricing.

While headlines focus on AI pricing, they miss the far bigger story.

Consumers Don't Want Personalized Prices

Consumers want personalized meals—not personalized prices.

Food marketing research throughout 2025 and 2026 consistently shows shoppers are seeking:

·       Ready-2-Eat fresh prepared meals

·       Heat-N-Eat family meal solutions

·       Mix-and-match meal components

·       Restaurant-quality foods at grocery prices

·       Quick shopping trips

·       Transparent everyday value

·       Digital convenience without sacrificing trust

Consumers have become remarkably sophisticated. They understand that AI can improve shopping experiences through recipe suggestions, inventory accuracy, personalized coupons, and meal recommendations. What they reject is the possibility that their income, shopping habits, or digital behavior might influence the price they pay for milk, eggs, chicken, or bread.

Trust remains one of retail's most valuable assets.

Grocery's Real Competitive Battle Isn't Price—It's Dinner

The real competitive battle isn't between Kroger, Walmart, Aldi, Costco, or regional supermarket chains.

It's between every retailer competing for tonight's dinner.

According to multiple industry studies released during 2025 and early 2026, approximately 80% of evening meals are still sourced from home, yet consumers increasingly refuse to cook entirely from scratch. Instead, they assemble meals using fresh prepared foods, refrigerated entrées, rotisserie chicken, meal kits, side dishes, deli offerings, frozen vegetables, bakery items, and restaurant takeout.

This is exactly where the Grocerant opportunity continues to expand.

Consumers aren't asking retailers to lower every price.

They're asking retailers to eliminate work.

Time has become the new currency.

The Smart Investment Is Fresh Prepared Food

Rather than investing tens or hundreds of millions of dollars into dynamic pricing systems that invite regulatory scrutiny, grocery retailers should redirect those investments toward:

·       Expanded Ready-2-Eat meal production

·       Improved Heat-N-Eat family meals

·       Better prepared food packaging

·       Faster checkout

·       More efficient labor deployment

·       AI forecasting that reduces food waste

·       Stronger inventory management

·       Better fresh food merchandising

Artificial intelligence absolutely belongs inside grocery stores.

Just not between the customer and the shelf price.

AI can reduce shrink, forecast demand, optimize labor scheduling, improve replenishment, reduce out-of-stocks, predict fresh production, and personalize meal recommendations without creating consumer distrust.

That is where technology creates long-term shareholder value.

Electronic Shelf Labels Still Have Value

Electronic shelf labels should not be viewed solely as dynamic pricing tools.

Properly deployed, they reduce labor costs by eliminating manual price changes, improve pricing accuracy, decrease pricing errors, simplify promotions, and allow associates to spend more time helping customers and merchandising fresh foods.

Those operational efficiencies remain valuable regardless of whether individualized pricing is prohibited.

In fact, labor savings from electronic shelf labels may become one of the strongest financial justifications for adoption once public concerns surrounding surveillance pricing are addressed.

The FTC Changed the Conversation

Federal scrutiny of AI pricing practices accelerated after investigations into digital grocery pricing raised questions about transparency and consumer protection. Public confidence became just as important as technological capability.

Retailers increasingly recognize that shoppers willingly share personal information in exchange for relevant coupons, personalized recipes, loyalty rewards, and meaningful savings.

They do not expect that same information to determine the price of essential groceries.

That distinction matters.

The retailers that preserve consumer trust will strengthen long-term customer loyalty.

The Future Belongs to Grocerants

The future grocery winner will not be the company with the smartest pricing algorithm.

It will be the retailer that best answers one simple consumer question:

"What's for dinner tonight?"

Consumers continue migrating toward retailers capable of providing complete meal solutions rather than simply selling ingredients.

Every investment should help shoppers save time, simplify meal preparation, reduce cleanup, and create restaurant-quality experiences at home.

That is the Grocerant model.

That is where profitable growth continues to accelerate.

 

Three Grocerant Guru® Insights

1. Transparency Is Becoming a Competitive Advantage
As states increasingly regulate AI-driven pricing practices, retailers that embrace consistent pricing, meaningful loyalty rewards, and operational excellence will strengthen consumer trust while differentiating themselves in an increasingly skeptical marketplace.

2. AI Delivers Greater ROI Behind the Scenes Than at the Shelf Edge
The highest returns from artificial intelligence come from demand forecasting, labor optimization, inventory management, food waste reduction, and fresh production planning—not charging different shoppers different prices for identical products.

3. Dinner Drives the Future of Food Retail
The fastest-growing opportunity remains Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat fresh prepared foods. Consumers increasingly want to customize family meals using restaurant-quality meal components that are quick to serve, easy to personalize, and require minimal cleanup. Retailers that invest in the Grocerant model will compete more effectively against restaurants while improving both top-line sales and bottom-line profitability.

Tap into the Foodservice Solutions® team for greater understanding of New Electricity or for a Grocerant Program Assessment, Grocerant ScoreCard, or for product positioning or placement assistance, or call our Grocerant Guru®.  Since 1991 www.FoodserviceSolutions.us  of Tacoma, WA has been the global leader in the Grocerant niche. Contact: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or 253-759-7869