POPEYES HAS A CHICKEN PROBLEM: SEVEN MISSTEPS, A PRICE-VALUE GAP, AND A BRAND THAT NEEDS TO REMEMBER WHO IT SERVES

 

Popeyes built a powerful position in America's chicken QSR market by delivering something consumers could recognize, crave, talk about, and return to: bold Louisiana-inspired flavor, distinctive chicken, and a brand personality that was anything but ordinary.

But brand recognition is not the same as brand momentum. And a famous chicken sandwich cannot carry an entire restaurant company indefinitely according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

Popeyes, owned by Restaurant Brands International (RBI), is learning that lesson the hard way.

The latest financial results tell an important story. For the third quarter of 2026, Popeyes U.S. comparable sales declined 2.2%. That marked seven consecutive quarters of declining U.S. comparable sales. The decline did moderate from negative 6.5% in Q1 and negative 5.2% in Q2, but the anticipated return to positive sales growth did not materialize.

Globally, Popeyes comparable sales declined 1.8%, while U.S. comparable sales declined 2.2%. That distinction matters when evaluating the brand's performance.

CEO Josh Kobza acknowledged that the turnaround would take longer than previously anticipated. Meanwhile, management is adjusting its menu, revisiting value promotions, simplifying operations, and putting renewed attention into marketing.

Here is the bigger problem: Popeyes appears to be working on the restaurant it wants to operate rather than consistently delivering the experience consumers want to purchase.

From the perspective of the Grocerant Guru®, that is a dangerous distinction.

SEVEN POPEYES MISSTEPS THAT NEED ATTENTION

1. Losing sight of the consumer while concentrating on internal operations

This is the biggest mistake.

Consumers do not organize their food decisions around corporate operating structures, menu complexity, labor models, or franchisee reporting systems. They organize decisions around appetite, convenience, price, quality, time, and perceived value.

Popeyes can simplify its kitchen, but consumers still expect choices, excitement, flavor, and a compelling reason to return.

Operational efficiency is important. Consumer relevance is essential.

The brand needs to start asking a different question: What does the consumer want next, rather than what is easiest for Popeyes to produce?

2. Allowing price to get out of line with perceived value

Price, Value, Service Equilibrium matters.

Consumers evaluate the entire transaction, not simply the price printed beside an individual chicken sandwich.

They consider portion size, food quality, taste, sides, beverages, service, convenience, and how the meal fits their budget.

Popeyes has allowed its price positioning to become vulnerable. When a consumer perceives that a competing chicken meal offers more food, better convenience, or a more attractive complete-meal proposition for the money, brand loyalty can quickly become conditional.

The recurring $6 Big Box demonstrates the challenge. Management said the September 2026 promotion delivered less incremental sales than anticipated.

A low advertised price does not automatically create incremental visits. The offer must be compelling enough to change a consumer's purchase decision.

Popeyes needs everyday value consumers can understand, not just occasional promotional pricing.

3. Treating menu simplification as a consumer benefit without adequately considering consumer demand

Popeyes is deliberately scaling back its wings offering because management believes wings create operational complexity.

There is a legitimate operational argument here. Too many ingredients, sauces, preparation procedures, and inventory requirements can complicate restaurant execution.

But there is another side.

Wings have demonstrated their ability to generate excitement, attract customers, encourage add-on purchases, and create reasons to visit outside traditional chicken sandwich occasions.

Popeyes previously reported strong results from its Ghost Pepper Wings and Sweet 'N Spicy Wings. The Sweet 'N Spicy launch was described by the company as its most popular menu item since the 2019 chicken sandwich launch.

That is not an insignificant achievement.

The lesson: Do not confuse an operationally complicated product with a product consumers do not want.

The answer may be a more focused wing platform, fewer sauces, better inventory management, or limited-time flavor rotations. Eliminating consumer excitement should not be the first solution.

4. Failing to build a sustainable value platform

The $6 Big Box has returned repeatedly, including in 2022, 2024, and 2025, with its earlier roots as the $5 Bonafide Big Box in 2014.

That history illustrates an important marketing problem: repeating a promotional price is not the same as building a value strategy.

Consumers need to understand what they get, why it is worth the money, and whether they can count on that value.

Popeyes should develop a clear good-better-best architecture, with accessible individual items, complete meals, family bundles, and add-on opportunities.

A value platform should encourage frequency and larger transactions without teaching consumers that the brand is only worth visiting when a discount appears.

5. Losing marketing continuity and accountability

Popeyes dismissed Chief Marketing Officer Matt Rubin after approximately one year in the role.

President Peter Perdue subsequently indicated that he would devote a significant amount of his attention to marketing.

Leadership involvement can be beneficial, but a brand cannot continually rebuild its marketing direction every time sales disappoint.

Popeyes need’s consistent consumer research, a recognizable brand voice, disciplined campaign measurement, and a marketing calendar that connects new products, everyday value, digital engagement, and restaurant execution.

Marketing is not simply advertising. It is the process of creating and sustaining reasons for consumers to choose the brand.

6. Depending too heavily on the chicken sandwich legacy

The 2019 chicken sandwich launch was a landmark moment for Popeyes. It generated enormous attention and helped establish the brand as a formidable competitor in the chicken sandwich conversation.

But a successful launch is not a permanent growth strategy.

Consumers evolve. Their appetites, budgets, schedules, dining occasions, and expectations change.

Popeyes needs to create more reasons to visit beyond one signature sandwich.

Bone-in chicken, tenders, wings, family meals, snacks, sides, beverages, and portable meal combinations all have roles to play.

The objective should be to increase occasions and frequency, not simply defend a product that already has substantial brand recognition.

7. Underestimating the importance of consistent execution across the entire experience

Popeyes has made improvements in service satisfaction, but there is still work to do.

A consumer's experience does not begin and end with the chicken. It includes ordering, accuracy, speed, temperature, packaging, pickup, delivery, and the condition of the meal when it reaches the table.

A great product delivered incorrectly, late, or at an inconvenient time is not a great experience.

The brand must make its restaurant operations support its marketing promises. A national campaign that generates trial but is not consistently delivered at the restaurant level can create disappointment rather than loyalty.

Popeyes needs to remember that consumers buy an experience, not an operating model.

THREE THINGS POPEYES STILL GETS RIGHT

Despite the problems, writing off Popeyes would be a mistake. The brand has meaningful assets that competitors would like to own.

1. Its core chicken remains a competitive advantage

Management reported that satisfaction with Popeyes' core chicken was at its highest level on record.

That matters. It suggests the brand has not lost its food identity. Its bone-in chicken, tenders, and sandwich remain important foundations.

Popeyes should build on those strengths rather than continually searching for another headline-grabbing product.

2. Service satisfaction is improving

There is encouraging evidence that operational improvements are beginning to reach consumers.

According to management's October 29 earnings-call comments, Popeyes was the only brand in the chicken category to deliver year-over-year improvements in overall service satisfaction in each of the first three quarters of 2026.

Management also cited meaningful gains in value-for-money perceptions and food quality.

That is progress worth protecting. Better service can help convert occasional trial into repeat business.

3. Popeyes has international growth potential and a recognizable brand platform

Popeyes is not simply a domestic chicken chain. Its international business has substantial scale and opportunity.

Management reported that Popeyes International had reached approximately $2 billion in systemwide sales across more than 2,000 restaurants.

The Louisiana-inspired positioning, recognizable flavor profile, and established brand identity provide a foundation for international expansion.

The opportunity is to translate that identity into locally relevant food experiences without losing what makes Popeyes distinctive.

PRICE, VALUE, SERVICE: THE EQUATION POPEYES MUST REBALANCE

The Grocerant Guru® has long emphasized that consumers make food decisions at the intersection of price, time, and flavor.

For Popeyes, the equation must include service as well.

·       Price: Is the transaction affordable and competitive?

·       Value: Does the consumer believe the food, portions, and experience justify the money?

·       Service: Is the experience dependable, accurate, and convenient?

·       Flavor: Does the food deliver the distinctive taste that created the brand's following?

·       Time: Can consumers obtain the meal when and where they want it?

Price cannot be managed in isolation.

A $6 promotional meal may attract attention, but if it does not create incremental transactions, it has not solved the marketing problem. Conversely, raising prices without delivering a corresponding improvement in perceived value risks pushing consumers toward competitors.

Popeyes needs to think beyond individual menu prices. It needs to merchandise complete solutions: lunch, dinner, family meals, snacks, portable combinations, and take-home occasions.

That includes takeout, drive-thru, delivery, and digital ordering. These are not separate consumer markets in people's minds. They are different ways to solve the same food need.

The challenge is to make Popeyes relevant across those occasions.

THE BIGGER LESSON: A BRAND MUST BE DYNAMIC, NOT STATIC

Popeyes does not need to abandon its identity. It needs to evolve its relevance.

The 2019 chicken sandwich demonstrated what happens when product, cultural conversation, marketing, and consumer excitement intersect. But brands cannot live indefinitely on yesterday's success.

Burger King's recent performance inside the same parent company offers an interesting comparison. RBI reported U.S. comparable-sales growth of 8.4% at Burger King in Q3 2026, against Popeyes' 2.2% decline.

That does not mean the two brands have identical challenges. It does demonstrate that consumer-facing menu improvements, value positioning, marketing, and restaurant investments can produce very different outcomes within one corporate portfolio.

Securities and Exchange Commission+1

Popeyes needs to stop treating the turnaround primarily as an exercise in menu reduction and operational efficiency.

It needs to put the consumer back at the center of the business.

THREE INSIGHTS FROM THE GROCERANT GURU®

1. Consumers, not kitchens, determine the future of a restaurant brand.

Operational simplification is valuable only when it improves the consumer experience. Never eliminate a popular product simply because it is inconvenient to manage without first exploring ways to operate it more effectively. Consumer demand should inform operational decisions.

2. Price is not value, and discounts are not a marketing strategy.

Popeyes must rebuild its Price-Value-Service Equilibrium. Consumers want good food, generous portions, dependable service, convenience, and prices that make sense. A $6 box is an offer. A compelling everyday value proposition is a strategy.

3. Dynamic brands grow by creating new occasions, not protecting old successes.

The chicken sandwich created a tremendous opportunity for Popeyes. The next opportunity is to connect bone-in chicken, tenders, wings, wraps, sides, beverages, and complete meals to evolving consumer needs. Think takeout, drive-thru, delivery, snacks, lunch, dinner, and family meals. More relevant occasions create more opportunities for frequency, transactions, and average check growth.

The Grocerant Guru® bottom line: Popeyes still has the food, the brand recognition, and the international footprint to compete aggressively. What it needs now is sharper consumer focus, more disciplined price-value positioning, consistent marketing leadership, and a willingness to evolve with the customer.

Brands are dynamic, not static. Popeyes needs to prove it understands that before another seven quarters go by.

Are you ready for some fresh ideations? Do your food marketing ideas look more like yesterday than tomorrow? Interested in learning how our Grocerant Guru® can edify your retail food brand while creating a platform for consumer convenient meal participation, differentiation and individualization?  Email us at: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or visit: us on our social media sites by clicking one of the following links: Facebook,  LinkedIn, or Twitter

The Grocery Deli Wake-Up Call: Stop Selling Cold Cuts and Start Winning Dinner!

 

Why 2025 and 2026 consumer behavior demands a new approach to fresh food, meal solutions, pricing, and customer engagement according to Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru® at Foodservice Solutions® based in Tacoma, Washington

The grocery store service deli is sitting on one of the biggest untapped food marketing opportunities in retail. Yet too many operators continue to manage their deli departments as though consumers are simply looking for sliced turkey, potato salad, a pound of ham, or a rotisserie chicken.

That thinking is outdated.

Today's consumers are looking for solutions to a much bigger question: What's for dinner, how much will it cost, and how quickly can I get it on the table?

The grocery service deli should be answering that question every day.

The opportunity is bigger than selling fresh food. It is about capturing meal occasions, increasing transaction value, building repeat visits, and competing directly with restaurants, takeout, delivery, convenience stores, and other retailers.

This is where the Grocerant Niche comes into play. Ready-2-Eat (RTE) and Heat-N-Eat (HnE) fresh-prepared foods are no longer peripheral grocery offerings. They are increasingly important components of how consumers assemble meals across channels.

The challenge for grocers is that consumer expectations have evolved faster than many service deli operating models.

The 2025–2026 Numbers: The Consumer Has Already Changed

Consider several findings that should be influencing every grocery deli executive's merchandising, pricing, and marketing decisions.

1. Grocery-prepared foods are taking restaurant occasions.

FMI's October 2025 Power of Foodservice at Retail research found that the share of consumers choosing deli-prepared foods instead of restaurant meals more than doubled, increasing from 12% in 2017 to 28% in 2025. Furthermore, 53% of Americans reported combining deli-prepared foods with items from their own kitchens to create meals.

That is a significant change. Consumers are not necessarily choosing between cooking and buying a meal. They are combining the two.

2. In 2026, meal solutions are more important than individual products.

FMI's October 2026 research found that 56% of households combine home preparation with food prepared outside the home for dinner at least once a week. Grocery retailers have an opportunity to sell the protein, sides, vegetables, sauces, and accompaniments that complete a meal.

3. Shoppers are under pressure to manage food budgets.

FMI's 2026 shopper research reports that 70% of shoppers say their income has not kept pace with inflation. At the same time, 44% report having more family meals at home than a year earlier, and 35% say they are cooking more often.

This creates an opportunity for deli operators, but it also creates a pricing challenge. A prepared meal must demonstrate why its convenience, quality, and portion size justify its price.

4. Convenience is still a powerful purchase motivator.

Circana's 2026 Eating Patterns in America research found that 86% of food occasions are sourced from home. Consumers are increasingly balancing convenience, nutrition, cost, and connection. The report also identifies protein and convenience as important forces shaping eating behavior.

The takeaway is straightforward: grocery operators should stop thinking exclusively about deli department sales and start thinking about the share of stomach they can capture.

Four Disconnects Holding Grocery Service Delis Back

1. Service Failures Cost More Than a Single Transaction

A deli counter with inadequate staffing, long lines, inconsistent availability, and employees who cannot explain the menu is not delivering convenience.

Consumers may be willing to pay for someone else to prepare dinner, but they are not eager to spend 15 minutes waiting to purchase it.

Imagine a customer entering at 5:30 p.m. looking for a roasted chicken, two sides, and a dessert. If the chicken is sold out, the sides are poorly stocked, and nobody can provide an alternative, the retailer has lost more than a chicken sale. It may have lost the entire dinner occasion.

The answer is to schedule labor around actual purchasing patterns, not simply traditional department hours. FMI's 2026 research found that half of same-day dinner decisions occur between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m. That is when the deli needs to be ready.

2. Confusing Pricing Destroys Perceived Value

Pricing is not simply a matter of matching the competition. It is about demonstrating value.

A $9.99 rotisserie chicken may appear attractive, but a family purchasing that chicken, two prepared sides, rolls, and dessert needs to understand the total cost of dinner.

Retailers should display complete meal prices, serving sizes, and individual component prices. Consumers need to see what they receive, not discover the final cost at checkout.

A deli that charges premium prices without communicating premium ingredients, preparation, freshness, portion size, or convenience risks losing the consumer.

Price without context creates resistance. Price accompanied by a clear value proposition creates an opportunity.

3. Poor Merchandising Makes Fresh Food Look Anything But Fresh

Fresh food sells with the eyes before it sells with the appetite.

Empty trays, dried-out sandwiches, unattractive salads, inconsistent labeling, and displays that look neglected undermine consumer confidence.

Consider the difference between displaying a container of pasta salad and merchandising a complete Mediterranean-inspired meal with grilled chicken, pasta salad, roasted vegetables, and a complementary sauce.

The ingredients may be identical. The consumer proposition is entirely different.

Merchandising should communicate freshness, flavor, meal possibilities, and convenience.

4. Generic Packaging Sacrifices Brand Equity

A clear plastic container is functional. It is not necessarily memorable.

Packaging should tell consumers what they are buying, why it tastes good, how much it serves, and how to enjoy it.

Imagine branded packaging for a store's signature Nashville hot chicken, Mediterranean grain bowl, Asian-inspired noodle salad, or smoked barbecue brisket.

Add a product name, preparation story, ingredient information, reheating instructions, and a recognizable visual identity.

A retailer should want customers to return specifically for its food, not merely because they happened to be shopping for milk.

The 2026 reputation challenge: FMI found that only about one-third of shoppers could identify a deli-prepared food item for which their primary grocery store was known. That is a major branding opportunity waiting to be captured.

Eight Strategies to Rebuild the Grocery Service Deli

The following strategies move the department away from a traditional counter-service mentality and toward a consumer-focused fresh-food business.

1. Sell Complete Meal Solutions, Not Isolated Products

Develop meal combinations for different household sizes, budgets, and occasions.

Examples include:

·       Two-person dinner: Rotisserie chicken breast, roasted potatoes, and green beans.

·       Family dinner: Whole roasted chicken, macaroni and cheese, salad, and rolls.

·       Game-day gathering: Wings, sliders, potato skins, dips, and desserts.

·       Quick weekday dinner: Heat-and-eat lasagna, garlic bread, and Caesar salad.

·       Global flavors: Korean-style chicken, rice, vegetables, and sauces.

Offer individual components as well as bundled combinations. Consumers want choices, not mandatory packages.

2. Establish Transparent and Consistent Pricing

Display prices prominently. Offer good, better, and best meal combinations.

For example, a retailer might offer an entry-level meal for two, a larger family meal, and a premium specialty meal.

Use actual food costs and local competitive conditions to establish prices. Do not assume every customer wants the cheapest option. Many want the best combination of price, quality, portion size, and convenience.

This is where the Grocerant Guru's Price Value Service Equilibrium becomes important: price, quality, social relevance, and portability all contribute to perceived value.

3. Staff for the Consumer's Clock

The traditional 9-to-5 staffing mentality does not work when dinner demand peaks after work.

Use transaction data to identify lunch, afternoon, and evening demand. Cross-train employees to assist with packaging, replenishment, order fulfillment, and customer service.

Offer online ordering and scheduled pickup for larger orders.

Most importantly, keep popular items available during the hours consumers actually want them.

4. Create Signature Products Consumers Recognize

Every grocery retailer should have food worth talking about.

A signature fried chicken, regional barbecue, premium sandwich, specialty mac and cheese, or distinctive prepared salad can become a destination product.

Develop a product consumers can identify without looking at the store's name.

That is how a deli begins building its own brand equity.

5. Use Data Analytics to Improve Production and Reduce Waste

Track sales by daypart, item, location, weather, promotion, and season.

Measure:

·       Sell-through rates.

·       Out-of-stock frequency.

·       Food waste and markdowns.

·       Gross margin by item.

·       Repeat purchases.

·       Meal bundle attachment rates.

Use those findings to forecast production and adjust batch sizes.

A deli should not be producing 40 sandwiches simply because it produced 40 yesterday. Consumer demand is dynamic, not static.

6. Build Branded Packaging Around Freshness and Portability

Packaging should reinforce the product's identity and make it easy to transport, store, serve, and reheat.

Include clear preparation instructions, ingredient information, portion details, and appealing product descriptions.

Consider packaging that works for office lunches, family dinners, individual consumption, and on-the-go snacking.

The container is part of the product experience, not just an operating expense.

7. Make Freshness, Food Safety, and Quality Visible

Freshness is a promise that must be supported by operating discipline.

The FDA's September 2026 report on retail deli food safety identified improper holding time and temperature and poor personal hygiene as the two most common out-of-compliance risk factors in its 2019–2022 study.

The FDA also found that delis with a Certified Food Protection Manager present had significantly better food safety management system scores.

Invest in trained managers, temperature monitoring, proper sanitation, product rotation, and documented procedures.

Communicate freshness honestly. A marketing message cannot compensate for inconsistent food safety practices.

8. Turn the Deli Into an Interactive Food Marketing Destination

Sampling, seasonal menus, limited-time offerings, digital promotions, and customer feedback can make the deli more engaging.

Create weekly themes such as:

·       Taco Tuesday meal solutions.

·       Friday family pizza night.

·       Saturday barbecue bundles.

·       Sunday comfort-food dinners.

·       Seasonal regional specialties.

Encourage customers to vote on upcoming flavors, suggest new sides, and share their favorite combinations.

Use loyalty programs to measure which promotions generate incremental purchases rather than simply discounting products customers would have purchased anyway.

The objective is participation, engagement, and repeat business.

The Bigger Opportunity: Break Down the Grocery Department Silos

One of the biggest mistakes grocery retailers make is managing the deli, bakery, produce, meat, seafood, and center store as separate businesses.

Consumers do not shop that way when deciding what to eat.

A shopper purchasing deli-prepared chicken may also need fresh vegetables, bakery rolls, refrigerated sauces, beverages, and dessert. The retailer should merchandise those products together around the meal occasion.

Consider these combinations:

Meal occasion	Grocery departments working together
Italian night	Deli lasagna, bakery garlic bread, produce salad
Backyard barbecue	Deli ribs, meat department steaks, produce sides
Healthy lunch	Deli grilled chicken, produce vegetables, refrigerated dressing
Family breakfast	Bakery pastries, deli breakfast sandwiches, dairy beverages
Game-day gathering	Deli wings, bakery sliders, produce vegetables and dips

This is cross-merchandising with a purpose. It increases convenience, exposes consumers to additional products, and creates opportunities to increase basket size.

The future belongs to retailers who understand that consumers have no artificial channel or departmental silos in their minds.

Think About This: The Deli Is Competing for Dinner, Not Just Deli Sales

The service deli has an opportunity to become one of the grocery store's most important customer acquisition and retention tools.

But that requires a different mindset.

Grocery retailers must compete with restaurant takeout, drive-thru, convenience stores, delivery services, and other sources of fresh-prepared foods. Consumers compare all of them based on their own expectations of price, quality, convenience, flavor, and service.

The retailer that makes dinner easier, more affordable, and more enjoyable has an opportunity to win.

The 2025 and 2026 FMI research reinforces an important point: consumers are increasingly comfortable combining food prepared by someone else with food prepared at home. That makes the grocery deli a meal-building resource, not simply another department.

The opportunity is to become the consumer's first stop when deciding what to eat.

Three New Insights from the Grocerant Guru®

1. Stop measuring deli success exclusively by department sales.

Measure meal occasions captured, repeat purchases, basket attachment, and customer retention. A rotisserie chicken sale that generates purchases in produce, bakery, beverages, and prepared sides is worth more than the chicken transaction alone. Market the entire meal.

2. Price transparency is the new customer service.

Consumers under financial pressure do not want surprises at checkout. Build clearly priced meal solutions for one, two, and four or more people. Demonstrate the value of fresh preparation, portion size, quality, and convenience. Remember, the lowest price does not always deliver the best value.

3. Every grocery deli needs a signature food identity.

If consumers cannot identify a distinctive food item associated with your grocery brand, you are missing an opportunity to create destination traffic. Develop signature sandwiches, chicken, regional specialties, salads, and complete meals. Give customers something they cannot easily duplicate elsewhere.

The Grocerant Guru® bottom line: Consumers are dynamic, not static. Grocery retailers that continue operating their service delis as traditional sliced-meat counters will surrender meal occasions to competitors. Those that embrace RTE, HnE, foodservice-quality preparation, transparent pricing, and customer-focused merchandising can turn the deli into a genuine competitive advantage.

Steven Johnson is the Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, Washington-based Foodservice Solutions®. Foodservice Solutions® identified and championed the Grocerant Niche beginning in 1991 and coined the term in 1996.

For corporate presentations, regional grocery chain consulting, food marketing strategy, educational forums, and keynote engagements, contact Steven Johnson.