Why Grocery Stores Still Stumble With Fresh Prepared Food — And What 2026 Trends Reveal

 

Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat fresh prepared foods have been the single strongest growth driver across retail foodservice for nearly a decade. Yet many grocery stores still struggle to unlock its full traffic and profitability potential. The disconnect isn’t lack of demand — it’s execution.

Today’s consumer behavior is rapidly reshaping where, how, and why people buy prepared food. Traffic that once flowed to restaurants is now migrating, but grocers haven’t fully captured the opportunity.

Demand Migration: Restaurant & Retail Convergence

Across the U.S., restaurant traffic patterns and consumer eating occasions are shifting dramatically.

Off-premises dining dominates growth. Nearly three out of every four restaurant orders are now consumed off-premises — takeout, delivery, drive-thru — showing that the “restaurant experience” itself is no longer tied to seated dining.

This shift signals a broader change: consumers want restaurant-quality food on their own terms — ideally on the way home or at home itself. That’s exactly the value proposition of the grocerant niche — grocer + restaurant — yet many supermarkets only pay lip service to it.

Grocer Prepared Foods Are Eating Restaurant Traffic

Recent industry data shows that consumers increasingly see grocery deli-prepared food as a substitute for eating out. In a survey, 28 % of shoppers said they now buy deli-prepared foods instead of going to a restaurant — more than double the rate from 2017.

Simultaneously, many consumers report reducing visits to quick-service or fast-casual restaurants, while prepared food purchases at grocery stores hold steady or grow.

But here’s the rub: demand migrates — but only if execution earns that visit.

What Consumers Are Telling Research

Industry trend reports underscore why grocer delivery falls short:

·       Prepared foods are now a key discovery channel for new trends — roughly 63 % of shoppers learn about emerging food trends through grocery prepared foods, surpassing discovery from restaurants.

·       More households decide dinner late in the day (post-3 p.m.), prioritizing ready or easy meal solutions — a strong structural advantage for prepared foods that supermarkets struggle to exploit.

·       Prepared foods are among the top three in-store traffic drivers for grocery and convenience formats — yet execution inconsistency erodes repeat visits.

These insights confirm what frontline operators know: traffic isn’t the constraint — conversion is.

Why Execution Still Lags

Despite massive demand potential, grocers continue to stumble in core areas:

1. Product quality inconsistency
Nearly half of shoppers report encountering failure — wrong temperature, incorrect packaging, or poor doneness — on staple prepared items like chicken. That’s a missed loyalty driver, not a one-off complaint.

2. Weak meal guidance and bundling
Shoppers buy parts, not meals, and then report feeling “lost” trying to assemble dinner solutions. That confusion directly suppresses shopper spend and repeat trips.

3. Merchandising that treats prepared food like CPG
Many retailers still manage fresh prepared items with center-store logic — unit sales over solution value. Yet prepared foods live or die on experience, immediacy, and trust.

The 2026 Competitive Landscape

Prepared foods is no longer a fringe traffic play; it’s core to retail relevance. Two big forces are colliding:

·       Restaurant pricing pressures are widening the gap between food away-from-home and grocery prices. With restaurant inflation outpacing grocery price inflation, consumers reassess value, especially for dine-at-home options.

·       Hybrid shopping is now the norm. Modern grocery trips combine online and physical needs — where every in-store visit must “earn its place” with freshness, discovery, or speed that digital channels can’t replicate.

This means prepared foods must become a destination reason, not a convenience “add-on.”

2026 Consumer Behavior Realities

• Consumers want solutions over single items. Transaction frequency is driven by convenience, confidence, and clear meal value.

• Shoppers are more selective about foodservice spending because economic pressures drive choice — but they still want quality and convenience when they do spend.

• Retail prepared foods are a trusted trend incubator — consumers increasingly look to grocers to introduce them to new flavors and meal formats.

Grocers that recognize prepared foods as a strategic traffic and discovery hub — not just a margin addon — stand to capture share from restaurants, convenience, and digital platforms alike.

 

2026 Insights From the Grocerant Guru®

1. Prepared Foods Must Deliver Confidence, Not Just Convenience
Consumers buy meals because they trust they’ll be good every time. In 2026, the biggest competitive edge isn’t innovation — it’s predictability at scale.

2. Traffic Is Moving — But Only Where the Store Performs
The modern shopper decides dinner after 3 p.m. — meaning prepared foods need to be ready, visible, and solution-oriented at every visit to capture that incremental trip.

3. Retail Prepared Foods Are Trend Engines, Not Afterthoughts
With more consumers scouting trends at grocery prepared departments than at restaurants, successful retailers shape food culture — not just respond to it.

Success Leaves Clues—Are You Ready to Find Yours?

One key insight that continues to drive success is this: "The consumer is dynamic, not static." This principle is the foundation of our work at Foodservice Solutions®, where Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, has been helping brands stay relevant in an ever-evolving market.

Want to strengthen your brand’s connection with today’s consumers? Let’s talk. Call 253-759-7869 for more information.

Stay Ahead of the Competition with Fresh Ideas

Is your food marketing keeping up with tomorrow’s trends—or stuck in yesterday’s playbook? If you're ready for fresh ideations that set your brand apart, we’re here to help.

At Foodservice Solutions®, we specialize in consumer-driven retail food strategies that enhance convenience, differentiation, and individualization—key factors in driving growth.

👉 Email us at Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us
👉 Connect with us on social media: Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter

Tipping at the Drive Thru Good Idea or Bad Idea

 

By any metric, Toast is on a heater. The Boston tech player that already powers roughly one in five independent restaurants has been stacking logos, scaling payments, and moving upstream into enterprise. Landing deals with Applebee’s, Firehouse Subs, and Papa Murphy’s signaled it can play far beyond mom-and-pop.

Now comes the next frontier: the drive-thru.

CEO Aman Narang has made clear that a purpose-built system for multi-lane complexity—and eventually voice automation—could unlock the largest transaction river in quick service. Strategically, he’s right.

Culturally? It’s a minefield.

Because when you mix drive-thru velocity with digital gratuity prompts, consumers don’t speed up. They freeze.

 

The friction point: speed vs. social pressure

Drive-thru success is measured in seconds per car, order accuracy, and repeat visits. Introducing a tip screen injects three risky variables:

1.       Cognitive delay – the guest must decide.

2.       Emotional load – the guest may feel judged.

3.       Operational drag – even two extra seconds per car can back up the lane.

Inside dining rooms, tips are normalized. At a pickup counter, many guests accept them. At a drive-thru speaker, the mental model shifts to retail transaction, not hospitality exchange.

That difference matters.

 

Generational tipping reality at the window

Here’s how cohorts tend to view it today, based on consumer research patterns across restaurant formats.

Gen Z

Digitally native and comfortable with prompts, but value transparency. They will tip if:

·       service feels personalized, or

·       wages are framed clearly.

They resist default percentages that feel automatic or inflated.

Millennials

The habit-formers of modern tipping culture. More likely to comply, yet increasingly fatigued by being asked everywhere. They reward speed, accuracy, and friendliness.

Gen X

Pragmatic. Grew up with tipping tied to table service. Many see drive-thru gratuity as optional at best, inappropriate at worst.

Boomers

The most resistant cohort in this channel. If they tip, it’s usually cash and based on exceptional human interaction—not a touchscreen suggestion.

 

Why this matters for Toast

Toast’s economic engine is payments. More transactions plus higher tickets equals higher processing revenue. A well-placed tip prompt can lift totals.

But in the drive-thru, the wrong prompt can:

·       hurt throughput,

·       frustrate loyal customers,

·       and create brand backlash for operators.

In other words, adoption risk shifts from tech ROI to consumer tolerance.

 

Automation changes the psychology

If AI voice ordering becomes common, who exactly is being tipped?

When a guest speaks to software, the perceived recipient of gratitude disappears. Without a visible human moment, gratuity logic weakens dramatically.

This is where design, language, and timing will make or break the initiative.

 

What operators will demand

Large chains considering Toast’s drive-thru tools will measure:

·       average service time

·       conversion rate

·       customer satisfaction

·       abandonment or balking

If tip prompts slow the line or dent loyalty metrics, they will be dialed back fast.

 

The growth backdrop

Toast’s momentum is undeniable: revenue up sharply, tens of thousands of locations added, profitability surging. The company bought digital drive-thru specialist Delphi Display Systems precisely to prepare for this expansion.

The strategy is sound.

Execution must be delicate.

Because consumers are already signaling tip fatigue across coffee, counter service, and self-checkout environments.

The core paradox

Technology can request a tip every time.

Customers will not say yes every time.

Bridging that gap without eroding goodwill is the art.

 

Insights from the Grocerant Guru®

1.       Context will outrank convenience.
Guests will tip where human effort is obvious. Invisible labor will struggle.

2.       Speed is sacred in the lane.
Any feature that threatens throughput will face operator resistance, no matter the revenue promise.

3.       Expect smarter prompts, not louder ones.
The winners will tailor requests based on order size, complexity, weather, and daypart rather than blasting every customer identically.

Toast is absolutely right to enter the drive-thru.

It just has to tiptoe.

Tap into the Foodservice Solutions® team for greater understanding of New Electricity or for a Grocerant Program Assessment, Grocerant ScoreCard, or for product positioning or placement assistance, or call our Grocerant Guru®.  Since 1991 www.FoodserviceSolutions.us  of Tacoma, WA has been the global leader in the Grocerant niche. Contact: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or 253-759-7869

Price Is the Magnet: The Grocerant Guru® on the 2026 Price–Value–Service Equilibrium

 

In 2026, the North Star for food retail is no longer novelty. It is permission to purchase.

Consumers are signaling loudly that they will migrate to operators who balance what it costs, what they receive, and how easy it is to get. I call that the Price–Value–Service Equilibrium. When one lever drifts too far out of line, traffic follows the correction.

Traffic is portable. Loyalty is conditional. Price is the trigger.

Consider the macro backdrop shaping behavior right now:

·       Restaurant menu prices remain roughly 25%+ above pre-pandemic levels.

·       A majority of consumers say they are trading down in at least one daypart each week.

·       Prepared food purchases in convenience retail continue to outpace many restaurant segments because they combine speed, proximity, and sharper opening price points.

·       Promotions framed as bundles are outperforming à la carte pricing because they simplify the value calculation.

That is the environment in which wins and losses are occurring.

 

Case in Point: Krispy Krunchy Chicken Understands the Assignment

Krispy Krunchy Chicken’s return of the $4 Value Meal is not nostalgia marketing. It is precision targeting.

Two pieces of bone-in chicken or two jumbo tenders plus wedges. Add a tender for $1.50. In-store only. Limited time.

This is engineered value architecture:

·       A compelling entry price.

·       Protein leadership.

·       Clear trade-up path.

·       Immediate gratification.

·       No erosion of quality cues (hand-breaded, Cajun profile, multiple sauces).

With more than 3,500 locations in 47 states, the brand sits exactly where migration is happening: inside convenience stores, truck stops, and high-frequency retail environments.

Most importantly, it removes the friction of deciding whether the meal is worth it.

At four dollars, the consumer already knows.

 

Where Customers Are Moving TO (3 Examples)

1) Convenience Foodservice with Sharp Bundles

Operators offering meal deals under $6 are capturing lunch and dinner defections from QSR. Unit velocity improves because the consumer perceives a complete meal rather than components.

2) Retailers Leveraging Store-in-Store Brands

Licensed concepts (chicken, pizza, Mexican) inside c-stores are gaining new guests by pairing restaurant credibility with retail accessibility.

3) Chains Promoting Predictable Price Ladders

Brands that publicize everyday value tiers — $4, $5, $7 — reduce anxiety and increase frequency. Consumers can budget without surprise.

 

Where Customers Are LEAVING (3 Examples)

1) Concepts with Double-Digit Check Creep

If the perceived experience did not elevate along with price, repeat visits declined. Guests simply recalibrated where they dine.

2) Menus with Add-On Fatigue

When sides, sauces, or upgrades push totals past expectation, customers notice and defect.

3) Slower Service at Higher Prices

If convenience erodes while price rises, the equilibrium collapses quickly.

 

The Franchisee Reality: Pros and Cons of Competing on Value

Pros

·       Traffic builder. Entry price points drive trial and recapture lapsed users.

·       Attachment engine. Smart upsells (extra tender, drink, dessert) protect margin.

·       Operational clarity. Focused bundles simplify execution.

·       Marketing efficiency. One strong number cuts through clutter.

Cons

·       Margin compression risk without disciplined food cost management.

·       Training pressure to maintain speed with higher volume.

·       Expectation reset. Guests may resist returning to higher price tiers.

·       Competitive response. Rivals often match quickly.

Value is powerful, but only when supported by throughput and consistency.

 

Why the Equilibrium Works

Consumers do mental math in seconds:

Is it worth it?
Is it easy?
Can I afford to come back?

When all three answers are yes, migration occurs.

Miss one, and traffic leaks.

Three Insights from the Grocerant Guru®

1.       The opening price is now your brand headline.
If guests cannot enter affordably, they won’t discover the rest of the menu.

2.       Bundles outperform discounts.
A complete solution feels generous; a coupon feels temporary.

3.       Frequency beats margin perfection.
In uncertain times, the operators who teach customers they can return regularly win the long game.

 

The brands gaining ground in 2026 are not the cheapest.
They are the clearest.

And clarity, at the right price, moves markets.

Success Leaves Clues—Are You Ready to Find Yours?

One key insight that continues to drive success is this: "The consumer is dynamic, not static." This principle is the foundation of our work at Foodservice Solutions®, where Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, has been helping brands stay relevant in an ever-evolving market.

Want to strengthen your brand’s connection with today’s consumers? Let’s talk. Call 253-759-7869 for more information.

Stay Ahead of the Competition with Fresh Ideas

Is your food marketing keeping up with tomorrow’s trends—or stuck in yesterday’s playbook? If you're ready for fresh ideations that set your brand apart, we’re here to help.

At Foodservice Solutions®, we specialize in consumer-driven retail food strategies that enhance convenience, differentiation, and individualization—key factors in driving growth.

Email us at Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us
Connect with us on social media: Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter