Five Years Five Grocerant Guru® Predictions Proven Correct

 

Over the past five years, Steven Johnson the Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions® has consistently identified key trends shaping the foodservice industry. As the market continues to evolve, recent data and projections, such as those from the International Foodservice Manufacturers Association (IFMA), have reaffirmed the accuracy of these predictions. Here are five positions that the Grocerant Guru took, now proven correct by industry facts and trends.

1. Fast Casual’s Resilience and Growth

The Grocerant Guru® predicted the resilience and growth of the fast casual segment, emphasizing its ability to adapt to changing consumer behaviors. This prediction has been reaffirmed by IFMA’s 2024 projection, which shows that fast casual restaurants are expected to grow by 1.3%, an upward revision from earlier estimates. The sector's pivot to suburban locations and increased focus on dinner occasions have played a crucial role in its recovery post-pandemic, highlighting the accuracy of the Guru's foresight.

Supporting Fact: Fast casual operators have leveraged technology to improve digital ordering and loyalty programs, which has driven repeat business and customer retention. The segment’s growth is further supported by its perceived better workplace environment, allowing it to compete effectively in a tight labor market.

2. QSR’s Value Proposition Remains Unchallenged

The Grocerant Guru® consistently emphasized the enduring strength of Quick Service Restaurants (QSRs), particularly their value proposition. This insight is supported by IFMA’s forecast, which projects a 0.7% growth for QSRs in 2024. Despite economic challenges, QSRs have maintained their position as the most affordable dining option, reinforcing the Guru's stance that their value-driven model would continue to attract cost-conscious consumers.

Supporting Fact: Even with rising costs, QSRs remain the lowest price point among restaurant segments, proving their resilience and ability to attract a broad customer base despite economic pressures.

3. Casual Dining’s Adaptation and Endurance

The Grocerant Guru® predicted that casual dining would continue to be a staple for consumers seeking social experiences and celebrations. This has been proven true as IFMA reports that the casual dining segment, though not growing significantly, is maintaining its relevance with a 0.0% growth projection for 2024 and a slight increase to 0.3% in 2025.

Supporting Fact: Casual dining venues have successfully adapted to the post-pandemic landscape by increasing off-premise revenue streams, including curbside pickup, delivery, and family meal options. This flexibility has helped the segment remain a favored choice for life events and social gatherings.

4. Midscale’s Decline Due to Changing Consumer Habits

The Grocerant Guru® warned that midscale restaurants would struggle due to shifting consumer habits, particularly as more people learned to cook at home during the pandemic. IFMA’s projection of a -0.7% decline in 2024 for midscale restaurants confirms this prediction, underscoring the segment’s ongoing challenges.

Supporting Fact: The midscale segment’s appeal has diminished as consumers have become more comfortable preparing familiar comfort foods at home. The lower price point, once a strong draw, is now less effective in enticing diners who have grown accustomed to home-cooked meals.

5. Fine Dining’s Slow but Steady Comeback

Finally, the Grocerant Guru® predicted that fine dining would experience a gradual comeback as consumers with disposable income returned to dining out for unique experiences. IFMA’s projection of a 0.2% growth for 2024 and 0.5% for 2025 aligns with this prediction, reflecting the segment’s ability to attract higher-income patrons despite broader economic challenges.

Supporting Fact: Fine dining has been less impacted by labor shortages compared to other full-service segments, allowing it to cater to a niche market eager for premium dining experiences. This supports the Guru's view that fine dining, though slower to recover, would eventually regain its footing.

Think About This

The Grocerant Guru’s insights have once again been validated by industry trends and data. From the resilience of fast casual and QSRs to the challenges facing midscale restaurants, these predictions have proven to be accurate reflections of the evolving foodservice landscape. As we look to the future, the Grocerant Guru’s expertise will continue to guide industry players in navigating the complex dynamics of the foodservice market.

Don’t over reach. Are you ready for some fresh ideations? Do your food marketing ideations look more like yesterday than tomorrow? Interested in learning how Foodservice Solutions® can edify your retail food brand while creating a platform for consumer convenient meal participation, differentiation and individualization?  Email us at: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or visit us on our social media sites by clicking the following links: Facebook,  LinkedIn, or Twitter

What Do Chili's, Panera Bread, McDonald's, and Wawa All Have in Common?

 

The grocerant niche continues to drive the evolving landscape of foodservice, the once-clear lines between grocery stores, convenience stores, and restaurants have blurred. The new battleground for the age-old question, "What's for dinner?" is no longer confined to the grocery aisle but has expanded to the drive-thru lanes and delivery apps. Leading the charge are brands like Chili's, Panera Bread, McDonald's, and Wawa, which are collectively reshaping consumer behavior and posing an increasing threat to the foundation of the legacy grocery business.

The Rise of Convenience-Driven Dining

The modern consumer's lifestyle is defined by speed, convenience, and the desire for minimal cleanup after meals according to Steven Johnson grocerant guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®. The fast-paced nature of today’s world leaves little time for meal planning, grocery shopping, and home cooking. Enter Chili's, Panera Bread, McDonald's, and Wawa—brands that have become the go-to solutions for dinner. These companies have capitalized on the growing demand for ready-to-eat meals that can be picked up or delivered with minimal effort.

·         Chili's has leveraged its "Chili's To Go" platform, enabling customers to order online and pick up their meals without ever leaving their cars. Their streamlined curbside pickup service has become a key component of their business model, contributing to an 18% increase in off-premise sales in 2023.

·         Panera Bread has embraced delivery and rapid pickup options, appealing to health-conscious diners with their diverse menu of fresh salads, soups, and sandwiches. With over 50% of their sales now coming from off-premise channels, Panera is no longer just a café but a serious contender in the dinner market.

·         McDonald's has perfected the art of the drive-thru, with innovations like digital menu boards and app-based ordering that have slashed service times. Their drive-thru sales account for nearly 70% of their total revenue, making them a dominant force in the quick-service industry.

·         Wawa, traditionally known as a convenience store, has transformed into a foodservice powerhouse with its made-to-order hoagies, freshly brewed coffee, and warm meals. Wawa’s ability to deliver customized, fresh food quickly has made it a favorite among consumers looking for a fast and satisfying dinner solution.

The Shift Away from Legacy Grocery Stores

What do all these brands have in common? They offer consumers an alternative to the traditional grocery shopping and cooking experience. The convenience of ready-to-eat meals, combined with the ease of delivery and drive-thru options, has made them a preferred choice for time-starved families and individuals.

According to the Food Marketing Institute (FMI), the share of food dollars spent on restaurants has increased from 46.1% in 2010 to 54.4% in 2022. This shift reflects a broader trend of consumers opting for meal solutions that require less time, effort, and cleanup. Legacy grocery stores, once the dominant player in the dinner market, are now facing stiff competition from these fast-casual and quick-service brands.

Delivery: The Game-Changer

The explosion of third-party delivery services like DoorDash, Uber Eats, and Grubhub has further accelerated this trend. Consumers can now have a hot meal from their favorite restaurant delivered to their door in under 30 minutes—often faster than it takes to drive to the grocery store, shop for ingredients, and cook at home.

Chili's, Panera Bread, McDonald's, and Wawa have all invested heavily in delivery infrastructure. For instance, Chili's partnership with DoorDash has allowed them to expand their reach beyond their physical locations, contributing to a 20% increase in delivery sales in 2023. Panera Bread’s loyalty program, integrated with their app-based delivery service, has grown to over 50 million members, driving repeat business and customer retention.

No Cleanup Required

One of the most compelling advantages these brands offer over grocery stores is the promise of no cleanup. After a long day, the last thing most consumers want to do is cook a meal from scratch and clean up the kitchen afterward. With the convenience of picking up a meal from McDonald's or having Panera delivered, consumers can enjoy a delicious dinner without dirtying a single dish. This no-fuss approach is particularly appealing to younger consumers, including Millennials and Gen Z, who prioritize experiences and convenience over traditional cooking.

The Threat to Legacy Grocers

The impact of these trends on legacy grocery stores cannot be overstated. As more consumers turn to restaurant-prepared meals for dinner, grocery stores are losing their grip on the evening meal occasion. While some grocery chains have tried to adapt by offering more prepared foods and meal kits, they struggle to compete with the convenience and speed offered by drive-thru and delivery options.

In 2023, grocery store sales growth slowed to just 1.2%, while sales in the foodservice sector grew by 7.6%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This divergence underscores the growing threat that brands like Chili's, Panera Bread, McDonald's, and Wawa pose to the traditional grocery business.

Think About This: The Future of Dinner

The future of dinner is increasingly being shaped by the convenience and speed offered by restaurants with robust drive-thru and delivery options. As Chili's, Panera Bread, McDonald's, and Wawa continue to expand their off-premise capabilities, legacy grocery stores must innovate or risk becoming obsolete in the dinner market.

Consumers have spoken, and their preference is clear: they want meals that are fast, convenient, and require no cleanup. The question for the grocery industry is whether it can evolve quickly enough to meet this demand, or if it will continue to cede ground to the likes of Chili's, Panera Bread, McDonald's, and Wawa.

The dinner table is set, and the competition is fierce. Will legacy grocers find a way to reclaim their place, or is this the new normal where fast food and quick-service restaurants reign supreme? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the battle for "What's for dinner?" is just beginning.

Invite Foodservice Solutions® to complete a Grocerant ScoreCard, or for daypart and product positioning growth assistance, or call our Grocerant Guru®.  Since 1991 Foodservice Solutions® of Tacoma, WA has been the global leader in the Grocerant niche. Contact: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or 253-759-7869

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TGI Fridays Mistakes Were Inside the Corporate Four Walls: How They Lost the Consumer

 

TGI Fridays, once the poster child of casual dining, has stumbled, fumbled, and ultimately lost its footing in a competitive market that demands constant evolution according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

TGI Friday’s once synonymous with fun, flair, and a vibrant dining experience, has seen its brand equity erode, largely due to critical missteps within its corporate structure. These mistakes, festering inside the four walls of the boardroom and trickling down to every aspect of the business, have driven a wedge between the brand and its consumers. Here’s how TGI Fridays lost the consumer—and how it all started from within in.

1. Failure to Innovate:

In a dining landscape where innovation is key to survival, TGI Fridays has been painfully slow to adapt. While competitors like Chili's and Applebee's embraced new technologies, menu innovations, and marketing strategies, TGI Fridays clung to its outdated playbook. According to the National Restaurant Association, 70% of consumers say they are more likely to choose a restaurant that offers new and innovative flavors. Yet, TGI Fridays remained stuck in the past, recycling the same tired menu items and ambiance that once worked but no longer resonate with today's consumers.

2. Neglecting Consumer Preferences:

TGI Fridays failed to listen to its customers. While the industry shifted towards healthier options, plant-based alternatives, and more personalized dining experiences, TGI Fridays lagged. A report by NPD Group indicates that nearly 50% of consumers now consider health and wellness when choosing where to dine. By ignoring this shift, TGI Fridays alienated a significant portion of its customer base, pushing them towards competitors who were quicker to adapt.

3. Inconsistent Branding and Messaging:

Branding is the heartbeat of any successful restaurant chain, but TGI Fridays allowed its brand identity to become muddled and inconsistent. The once iconic 'flair' that defined the Friday’s experience became more of a nostalgic afterthought than a compelling reason to visit. As competitors like Buffalo Wild Wings honed their brand messaging to appeal to specific demographics, TGI Fridays struggled to articulate what it stood for in a crowded market. According to Technomic, 66% of consumers are more likely to frequent a restaurant with a clear and consistent brand message. The failure to maintain brand clarity contributed to the brand's steady decline.

4. Corporate Disconnect with Franchisees:

TGI Fridays’ corporate leadership failed to foster a collaborative relationship with its franchisees, leading to a disjointed execution of the brand across different locations. This disconnect resulted in inconsistent customer experiences, which is deadly in an industry where 86% of diners say consistency is a crucial factor in their decision to return to a restaurant (Restaurant Business). When the corporate office is out of touch with the realities faced by franchisees, it creates a domino effect that ultimately impacts the consumer.

5. Stagnant Digital and Delivery Strategies:

As the restaurant industry rapidly embraced digital ordering and delivery, TGI Fridays was left behind. The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the importance of having a robust digital presence, yet TGI Fridays was slow to optimize its online ordering platform, mobile app, and delivery partnerships. With digital sales accounting for over 20% of total restaurant sales in 2023 (NRA), TGI Fridays' failure to prioritize this channel was a catastrophic mistake that alienated consumers seeking convenience and modern dining solutions.

6. Ignoring the Power of the Grocerant Niche:

While grocerants—grocery stores offering freshly prepared meals—have become a significant player in the 'What's for Dinner?' market, TGI Fridays failed to recognize the threat and opportunity this trend presented. The grocerant niche, projected to grow to $34.8 billion by 2025, appeals to time-starved consumers looking for restaurant-quality meals without the restaurant experience. TGI Fridays could have leveraged its brand to enter this space, but instead, it allowed competitors like Chili's to capitalize on the trend with their successful "Chili's at Home" line.

Think About This: A Lesson in Corporate Myopia

TGI Fridays’ decline is a cautionary tale of how corporate myopia can lead to the erosion of a brand that once stood at the pinnacle of casual dining. The mistakes were not in the food or the service but within the corporate four walls—decisions made at the top that failed to adapt to a changing market, understand consumer preferences, or empower franchisees. As a result, TGI Fridays lost touch with the very consumers who once loved the brand, leaving the door wide open for competitors to swoop in and capture their share of the market. The lesson is clear: in today’s dynamic foodservice landscape, adaptability, innovation, and a deep connection to consumer needs are not optional—they are essential.

For international corporate presentations, regional chain presentations, educational forums, or keynotes contact: Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions.  His extensive experience as a multi-unit restaurant operator, consultant, brand / product positioning expert, and public speaking will leave success clues for all. For more information visit GrocerantGuru.com, FoodserviceSolutions.US or call 1-253-759-7869

HalloWEENDY’s: Frosty Frights and the Power of Timely Brand Messaging

 

As the spooky season kicks into gear, Wendy’s is unleashing more than just frightful fun—it’s reinforcing the power of "timely" brand marketing messaging that drives consumer engagement and deepens brand relevance according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

This Halloween season, Wendy’s is captivating families with its Frosty Frights kids’ meal collection, a clever twist on the iconic Frosty treat that integrates playful, limited-time collectibles. This strategy not only taps into the excitement of seasonal fun but also speaks volumes about the importance of staying relevant by delivering timely, consumer-focused marketing.

Frosty Frights: Where Marketing and Messaging Meet

Consumers today are bombarded with options, but it’s timely marketing that cuts through the clutter. Wendy’s Frosty Frights toys—featuring spooky yet lovable characters like Franken Frosty, Frosty Bite, Coolie Ghoulie, Brrr Beast, Cold Spell, and Junior—capitalize on Halloween’s emotional triggers of nostalgia and fun. Wendy’s didn’t just launch another kids' meal toy; they expertly timed this release to coincide with a season where families seek out activities and brands that offer memorable, shared experiences. These 11 collectible characters not only give consumers a reason to return but reinforce brand loyalty during a period when competing messages are at their highest.

Building Family Connections with Every Kids’ Meal

Wendy’s continues to cement itself as a go-to family destination by integrating smart meal options into the mix. Each kids’ meal offers choices like 4-piece chicken nuggets, hamburgers, or cheeseburgers alongside Jr. Hot & Crispy Fries or Apple Bites, ensuring there’s something for every child. The key takeaway here? Wendy’s knows the value of providing variety that speaks to modern consumers who are seeking both quality and choice in their dining experiences.

In a world where 53% of families report feeling crunched for time, according to recent food industry studies, this kind of thoughtful meal planning helps ease the "What's for dinner?" dilemma. Plus, bundling these kid-friendly meals with the excitement of collectible toys strengthens emotional connections between parents, kids, and the brand.

The Boo! Books: Driving Value and Purpose

Wendy’s isn’t just about great food; it’s about giving back and driving meaningful consumer action. With the launch of their special-edition Boo! Books, featuring the Frosty Frights characters, Wendy’s is proving that marketing can be about more than just the sale—it can foster community engagement. Priced at just $1, Boo! Books offer five free Jr. Frosty treats and a sixth bonus coupon for a $1.99 Wendy’s Kids’ Meal, with all proceeds going to the Dave Thomas Foundation for Adoption.

This is where Wendy’s has mastered the art of combining timely marketing with cause-driven messaging. With 78% of consumers preferring brands that support social causes, according to recent studies, Wendy’s not only keeps its brand in the spotlight but makes it easy for customers to participate in something bigger than themselves. Through November 3, families can feel good knowing they’re not just collecting cool toys or indulging in Frosty treats—they’re also supporting a vital mission to help children in foster care find permanent, loving homes.

Capitalizing on Timely Brand Moments

Wendy’s seasonal "HalloWEENDY’s" campaign exemplifies the strength of time-sensitive marketing that connects emotionally with consumers. Limited-time offers like the Frosty Frights kids’ meal and Boo! Books create a sense of urgency and exclusivity—two psychological triggers that motivate action. By offering promotions that not only add value but build on existing brand love, Wendy’s positions itself as the go-to fast-food brand for families during Halloween, reinforcing its relevance in the competitive quick-service landscape.

The Bigger Picture: Building Long-Term Consumer Trust

What makes Wendy’s brand marketing even more impactful is how it integrates timeliness with purpose. The Boo! Books initiative is a tangible way for the brand to communicate its long-standing commitment to adoption and foster care, while also offering a fun, value-driven product for its customers. It’s this dual focus—meeting immediate consumer needs with timely promotions and reinforcing deeper brand values—that keeps Wendy’s top of mind for millions of families, especially during peak consumer seasons like Halloween.

How to Get In On the Fun

Fans of HalloWEENDY’s can find Boo! Books at participating Wendy’s locations across the U.S. now through November 3. The Frosty Frights kids’ meals are also available through the same time period, giving customers a chance to collect their favorite spooky characters while enjoying their favorite Wendy’s meals. And for added convenience, Boo! Books can be ordered via Wendy’s mobile app or self-order kiosks, making it easier than ever to join in on the seasonal fun and support a great cause.

Reinforce Your Brand with Timely Messaging

The key takeaway from Wendy’s HalloWEENDY’s campaign is the importance of timely, relevant messaging that resonates with consumers at just the right moment. It’s not enough to offer great products—brands today must connect emotionally, offer value, and create experiences that foster lasting relationships. Wendy’s has mastered this formula, and the Frosty Frights kids’ meal is a perfect example of how clever, seasonally-driven marketing can build loyalty, drive sales, and support important social causes.

Let this be a lesson in brand marketing: Stay timely, stay relevant, and always aim to reinforce the emotional connection with your consumers. That’s the true essence of grocerant niche success.

Invite Foodservice Solutions® to complete a Grocerant ScoreCard, or for product positioning or placement assistance, or call our Grocerant Guru®.  Since 1991 Foodservice Solutions® of Tacoma, WA has been the global leader in the Grocerant niche. Contact: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or 253-759-7869

A Ten-Year Journey of Grab n’ Go Adoption and Its Packaging Evolution

 

Over the past decade, the food industry has experienced a seismic shift toward convenience, and the rapid rise of takeout and grab n’ go options has been nothing short of remarkable. The team at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions® has been analyzing the increasing demand for quick, quality meals has been driven by busier schedules, shrinking disposable incomes, and an undeniable consumer desire to simplify daily life without sacrificing taste since 1991.  From sushi and sandwiches to salads and snacks, grab n’ go has evolved from a fringe offering into a cornerstone of modern food retail.

Ten years ago, few could have predicted the rapid growth of grab n' go, but as early as 2014, we began to see a clear trajectory. Back then, only about 25% of consumers regularly opted for ready-to-eat meals. Fast forward to 2024, and a recent study shows that 80% of consumers now prefer businesses with grab n’ go options. This reflects a cultural shift where convenience reigns supreme, and those in the food industry must evolve or risk irrelevance. As we look at today’s landscape, it’s clear that grocers, restaurants, and convenience stores have all had to rethink their service models to meet consumer demand.

Packaging: The Silent Driver Behind Grab n’ Go Success

As the Grocerant Guru® always says, "You can’t grab n’ go without the right packaging." The growth of takeout in the last decade has been fueled by innovations in food packaging. It’s no longer just about containing food—it's about presenting it in ways that preserve taste, enhance appeal, and align with sustainability goals. From the early days of basic plastic clamshells to today's eco-friendly, recyclable, and compostable packaging, the evolution has been swift and essential to the adoption of grab n’ go.

Here are three essential considerations for foodservice operators who want to ride the wave of grab n' go success:

1. Menu Diversity Matters More Than Ever

Over the past ten years, consumer preferences for grab n' go have expanded far beyond sandwiches and salads. Today, consumers are just as likely to grab sushi, protein-packed bowls, and globally inspired wraps as they are a traditional sub. The key to maintaining relevance in this competitive space is offering variety. A recent study revealed that lunch remains the leading grab n' go meal at 52%, followed closely by breakfast at 50%, with snacks and dinner also holding significant shares.

Foodservice operators must consider how packaging plays a role in this diversity. For example:

·         Will the packaging keep the meal fresh during transport?

·         Does it highlight the food's visual appeal?

·         Can it maintain the integrity of hot or cold items?

These questions are more critical than ever as consumer expectations continue to evolve alongside their busy lifestyles.

2. Sustainability: The Consumer-Driven Imperative

In the past decade, sustainability has moved from a nice-to-have to a must-have. Today's consumers are hyper-aware of environmental concerns, and a 2024 study found that 46% of U.S. consumers consider eco-friendly packaging essential when making food purchases. Ten years ago, the industry relied heavily on single-use plastics, but today we see everything from recyclable paper packaging to fully compostable containers dominating the grab n' go scene.

As sustainability continues to influence purchasing decisions, foodservice operators must work closely with packaging partners who can provide solutions aligned with consumer expectations and local environmental regulations. Packaging providers like Sabert are leading the charge by offering eco-friendly products that balance convenience, functionality, and sustainability.

3. Taste and Convenience Go Hand in Hand

While convenience has driven the rise of grab n’ go, it’s taste that keeps consumers coming back. Ten years ago, there was an assumption that quick meals sacrificed flavor. That mindset is long gone. According to a 2023 industry report, 59% of consumers still prioritize taste when selecting grab n' go meals, proving that no matter how fast the food is, it must deliver on flavor.

For providers, the challenge lies in crafting grab n’ go meals that are not only convenient but also creatively presented and delicious. Packaging once again plays a pivotal role, ensuring that the food remains fresh, visually appealing, and easy to consume on the go. It’s not just about offering a quick fix—it’s about offering a satisfying, high-quality meal experience.

Looking Forward: The Future of Grab n’ Go

The past decade has shown us that consumer habits and preferences are evolving quickly, and the demand for grab n’ go is far from plateauing. Whether it’s driven by the need for quick breakfasts, nutritious lunches, or convenient dinners, the grab n' go market is here to stay. For foodservice operators, the challenge is clear: adopt innovative packaging, offer diverse menu options, and ensure your offerings align with the sustainability values of today’s consumer.

As we look ahead, the future of grab n’ go will be defined by its ability to seamlessly blend taste, convenience, and environmental responsibility. And for foodservice operators, those who are slow to innovate will be left behind in an ever-growing market driven by the consumer’s quest for ease and efficiency.

Grab n’ Go in 2024: Where Taste Meets Convenience

For any foodservice operator or grocer, the time to enhance grab n’ go programs is now. The packaging provider you choose today could shape your future success, ensuring that your products remain relevant in a fast-moving market where convenience, sustainability, and taste converge. After all, as the Grocerant Guru® would say, the future of food is about more than just eating—it’s about making life easier, one grab n’ go meal at a time

Don’t over reach. Are you ready for some fresh ideations? Do your food marketing ideations look more like yesterday than tomorrow? Interested in learning how Foodservice Solutions® can edify your retail food brand while creating a platform for consumer convenient meal participation, differentiation and individualization?  Email us at: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or visit us on our social media sites by clicking the following links: Facebook,  LinkedIn, or Twitter