From the Wallet to the Table: What Can We Afford for Dinner?

 

The consumer’s food budget—not the restaurant’s brand promise—is increasingly deciding what’s for dinner, according to Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

There is a question being asked in American households every day that restaurant marketers should be asking themselves far more often:

“What can we afford for dinner tonight?”

That question is becoming more important than Which restaurant do we like?

New consumer research from Popmenu, a restaurant technology company serving more than 12,000 restaurants globally, provides a remarkably clear look at how consumers are navigating today's restaurant economy. The study surveyed 3,000 U.S. consumers in three national surveys conducted in February, May and July 2026.

The headline is simple: consumers still want restaurants, but they are increasingly deciding what they can afford before deciding where they want to eat.

According to Popmenu, consumers currently spend an average of $100 per week on restaurants. That is an improvement from earlier in 2026, but it remains $15 below June 2025.

Even more revealing, 67% say they are spending less on restaurants than they did a year ago.

That is not a consumer abandoning restaurants.

It is a consumer reengineering the restaurant occasion.

And that distinction matters.

“Around 30% of monthly food budgets go to restaurants today, down from a high of 40% in 2022,” said Brendan Sweeney, CEO and Co-founder of Popmenu. “What that tells us is consumers are spending intentionally, not reluctantly.”

That may be the most important sentence in the entire report.

Consumers are not saying no to foodservice. They are saying “show me the value.”

The food dollar has become a battlefield

The pressure is not imaginary.

The USDA Economic Research Service reports that food-away-from-home prices were 3.4% higher in August 2026 than a year earlier, while food-at-home prices were up 2.2%. The USDA's September 2026 forecast calls for food-away-from-home prices to rise about 3.5% for the full year.

At the same time, USDA reports that U.S. consumers spent $2.51 trillion on food in 2025, with food away from home accounting for 56.3% of total food expenditures.

So this is not a small niche issue.

It is a massive food-market transformation.

And the consumer does not think about that $2.51 trillion as separate industry silos.

They think:

What should we eat?

Where should we get it?

How much will it cost?

How much food will we get?

How much work will it require?

And is it worth it?

That is the Grocerant consumer mindset.

The consumer is becoming the ultimate menu engineer

Popmenu's research shows just how creatively consumers are managing their restaurant budgets.

Among the tactics consumers report using:

·       52% drink water instead of purchasing a beverage.

·       50% pick up orders more frequently instead of ordering delivery.

·       48% use coupons or rewards points.

·       47% choose less expensive restaurants.

·       29% order an appetizer instead of a meal.

·       28% decrease alcohol purchases.

·       16% order kids' meals for adults.

Think about what that means.

Consumers are not necessarily leaving restaurants.

They are taking control of the restaurant check.

They are removing beverages.

They are eliminating delivery fees.

They are trading down.

They are using rewards.

They are changing meal occasions.

They are reducing alcohol.

They are even looking at the kids' menu as an adult value menu.

The consumer is effectively saying:

“I still want the experience. I just don't want to overpay for it.”

Dinner is where the pressure shows up first.

Popmenu reports that 60% of consumers are dining out less frequently.

Dinner is taking the biggest hit:

·       46% are cutting back on dinner.

·       37% are cutting back on lunch.

·       28% are cutting back on breakfast.

·       24% are cutting back on late-night snacking.

Why does dinner matter so much?

Because dinner is often the largest restaurant occasion of the day—and therefore the easiest place for consumers to make a budget adjustment.

Dinner can become takeout.

Takeout can become pickup.

Pickup can become grocery prepared food.

A restaurant meal can become a supermarket rotisserie chicken.

A restaurant entrée can become an appetizer shared at home.

A $70 family dinner can become a $25-$35 prepared-food solution.

The consumer doesn't care which industry's P&L statement records the transaction.

The consumer cares about the meal.

That is one of the foundational principles of the Grocerant niche.

The grocery store is not just competing with restaurants for groceries

The competitive set for restaurants is increasingly every place consumers can obtain a ready-to-eat or heat-and-eat meal.

USDA data shows that food-at-home sales reached approximately $1.10 trillion in inflation-adjusted dollars in 2025, while food-away-from-home spending reached approximately $1.41 trillion.

And Circana's 2026 Eating Patterns in America research provides another important reminder: 86% of all food occasions are sourced from home. Americans are eating more meals away from home than in 2025, but still substantially fewer than in 2019.

That creates an enormous opportunity for grocers, convenience stores, warehouse clubs, dollar stores and other retailers selling prepared food.

The Grocerant question is not:

“Are consumers eating at restaurants or grocery stores?”

It is:

“Where will consumers assemble tonight's meal?”

That is a very different question.

Value is no longer just price

Popmenu found that 62% prefer restaurants offering affordable meal options and special deals, while 58% say they will spend more when there is a discount.

That is important.

A discount does not automatically create value.

Value is the intersection of price, quality, convenience, experience and trust.

That is why a $10 meal can feel expensive while a $15 meal can feel like a bargain.

The consumer is not buying the lowest possible price.

The consumer is trying to maximize the value of the entire food occasion.

The National Restaurant Association's Q3 2026 consumer research reinforces the point: 40% of consumers said they used more discounts or value promotions than they normally do, up from 35% in Q2. The Association also reports that half of consumers say it has become more difficult to cover household expenses than a year ago.

This is why restaurant operators should stop thinking of value as merely another promotion.

Value is becoming part of the product.

Convenience is becoming part of the brand

Popmenu also found that:

·       80% use Google and other search engines to find restaurants.

·       27% use AI tools such as ChatGPT.

·       80% are more likely to choose menus featuring photos, videos and reviews.

·       94% prefer ordering directly through a restaurant's own website rather than a third-party platform.

·       46% are more likely to choose restaurants with loyalty programs.

·       70% are willing to join a restaurant mailing list.

·       79% would download a restaurant app.

·       60% are comfortable with restaurants using AI to provide faster or better service.

This is where restaurant marketing is undergoing another important transition.

The restaurant's digital storefront is becoming the front door.

Consumers want to know the price.

They want to see the food.

They want to know what other customers think.

They want to know whether there is a deal.

They want to order without friction.

And they increasingly want to know all of that before they leave home.

That makes discoverability, menu transparency, photography, reviews, loyalty and direct ordering components of the restaurant value proposition—not merely marketing functions.

And then there is the tip

Popmenu found that 40% of consumers say they are tipping less this year, with 78% of those consumers specifically reducing tips at restaurants and bars.

The numbers become even more revealing by restaurant type.

For example, only 38% of consumers report tipping 20% at sit-down restaurants with servers, while tipping at carryout counters, coffee shops, QSRs and fast-casual restaurants is considerably more restrained.

The implication is larger than tipping.

Consumers are scrutinizing every incremental dollar attached to the meal.

The beverage.

The delivery charge.

The service fee.

The tip.

The add-on.

The upgrade.

The premium ingredient.

The extra side.

Everything is being evaluated against the question:

“Do I need this, or can dinner work without it?”

The restaurant industry needs to stop thinking in silos

This is where the Grocerant Guru® sees the biggest strategic issue.

Restaurant executives continue to define competition primarily by restaurant segment.

QSR versus QSR.

Fast casual versus fast casual.

Casual dining versus casual dining.

But consumers don't live in those silos.

A consumer can have McDonald's for lunch, a grocery-store prepared meal for dinner, Starbucks in the afternoon and Chili's on Friday.

The same consumer can buy a rotisserie chicken at a supermarket, add a deli salad, purchase dessert from a convenience store and call it dinner.

One consumer. One food budget. Multiple channels.

That is the Grocerant marketplace.

The $100 question

Popmenu's $100-per-week restaurant spending figure may ultimately prove more important than any individual restaurant statistic in the report.

Because $100 is a budget.

And once consumers establish a budget, every restaurant occasion competes for a share of it.

The question for restaurant operators is no longer simply:

“How do we get consumers into our restaurant?”

It is:

“Why should this meal get a share of the consumer's $100?”

That is a much harder question.

And it requires more than another limited-time offer.

It requires understanding the consumer's entire food journey—from the wallet to the table.

Three Insights from the Grocerant Guru®

1. The consumer is not leaving foodservice—consumers are shopping the foodservice occasion.
The Popmenu data show consumers changing how they dine rather than simply abandoning restaurants. Pickup replaces delivery. Water replaces beverages. Rewards replace full-price purchases. Appetizers replace entrées. The meal remains important; the economics of the meal are changing.

2. “What's for dinner?” has become “What can we afford for dinner?”
That is a profound difference. Restaurant brands that answer only what do we serve? are asking the wrong question. The better question is: What combination of price, quality, convenience, portability and experience can we deliver that makes this particular meal worth the consumer's money?

3. The Grocerant consumer does not recognize your industry silos—and neither should your brand strategy.
Restaurants, supermarkets, C-stores, warehouse clubs, delivery platforms and other retailers are all competing for the same food occasion. The consumer has one wallet and one dinner decision. The future belongs to the companies that understand the meal occasion rather than merely defending the restaurant category.

Elevate Your Brand with Expert Insights

For corporate presentations, regional chain strategies, educational forums, or keynote speaking, Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, delivers actionable insights that fuel success.

With deep experience in restaurant operations, brand positioning, and strategic consulting, Steven provides valuable takeaways that inspire and drive results.

 

Visit GrocerantGuru.com or FoodserviceSolutions.US Call 1-253-759-7869

The Grocery Aisle Is Not One Demographic: Baby Boomers Put the Wrench in the Favorite-Grocer List

 

Why Boomers, Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z Can Walk Into the Same Grocery Store Looking for Four Different Things. Leave it to Baby Boomers to say, “Ah, not so fast.”

A new look at grocery-store preferences by generation demonstrates something food marketers have known for years but too often forget: there is no such thing as the American grocery shopper. There are American grocery shoppers according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

And they are not necessarily shopping for the same reasons, responding to the same messages, discovering food in the same places or defining value the same way.

The latest YouGov grocery research provides an excellent example. Overall, Aldi ranked No. 1 in the referenced study, while the generations disagreed about their favorite grocers. Millennials and Generation X put Aldi at the top, while Baby Boomers selected Trader Joe's.

That difference is not a footnote.

It is the story.

Food retailers and food marketers that lump four generations into one demographic are potentially marketing to an imaginary consumer.

The four major generations—Baby Boomers, Generation X, Millennials and Generation Z—may share the same grocery aisle, but they don't necessarily share the same shopping journey.

And the data from 2024, 2025 and 2026 makes that increasingly clear.

1. BABY BOOMERS: TRUST, VALUE AND THE POWER OF THE FAMILIAR

Baby Boomers deserve to go first because they are the demographic that most clearly demonstrates why brand trust still matters.

In YouGov's 2025 grocery research, Baby Boomers were particularly responsive to special offers: 84.7% said they are always on the lookout for special offers, compared with 80.5% of consumers overall. At the same time, 74.7% said they are usually looking for the lowest prices.

But Boomers aren't simply "cheap shoppers."

In fact, the same research showed that Boomers were more loyal to their primary store than younger consumers. Research from RRD found 61% of Baby Boomers said they tend to stay loyal to the store they shop at most often, compared with 55% overall.

That is important.

Price matters. Value matters. But trust can turn value into loyalty.

The 2026 YouGov research on brand values makes that even more compelling. Among Baby Boomers, 84% said honesty is the most important brand value, compared with 66% of Gen Z. Across all Americans, honesty and trustworthiness ranked as the two most important brand values.

And Boomers aren't technologically disconnected shoppers, either.

FMI reported in 2024 that 57% of Boomers use smartphones to look for grocery deals, while 52% use digital coupons.

So the stereotype of the Boomer who simply walks into the neighborhood supermarket and buys the same brands every week is increasingly outdated.

The better description is:

A value-conscious, trust-sensitive shopper who is perfectly willing to use technology—but doesn't necessarily need technology to discover everything.

FMI's 2026 beverage research found that 41% of Boomers discover new beverages through in-store shelf signage and 35% simply notice products while shopping.

For Boomers, the store itself remains a media channel.

That helps explain why Trader Joe's can resonate differently with Boomers than Aldi does with younger generations. The issue isn't simply price. It can be the combination of familiarity, perceived authenticity, discovery, product uniqueness and trust.

 

2. GENERATION X: THE VALUE-HUNTING BRIDGE GENERATION

Generation X may be the most interesting demographic sitting between the traditional supermarket shopper and the digitally enabled consumer.

YouGov's 2025 data found 78% of Gen X shoppers said they are usually looking for the lowest prices, the highest percentage among the four generations in that measurement. And 82.1% said they are always on the lookout for special offers.

Gen X also isn't waiting for the retailer to tell them where the deal is.

FMI's 2024 research found 67% of Gen X shoppers use smartphones to look for deals, while 66% use digital coupons.

That creates an important marketing lesson:

Gen X can be reached digitally, but the message still has to make economic sense.

They are also highly capable of switching among channels.

The 2025 grocery research showed consumers increasingly shop multiple retailers to optimize value, while FMI reported that 44% of shoppers were shopping at multiple stores to obtain the best value.

For Gen X, the grocery store is less likely to be a single destination and more likely to be part of a shopping portfolio.

 

3. MILLENNIALS: PRICE IS IMPORTANT, BUT VALUE HAS MORE DIMENSIONS

Millennials are where traditional food marketing gets particularly complicated.

They are highly price-conscious—but price isn't necessarily the entire definition of value.

The 2024 FMI research found that shoppers increasingly define value beyond price and quality to include relevance, convenience and experience.

And Millennials are particularly open to switching.

RRD's 2024 research found 50% of Millennials were willing to change stores for greater savings, compared with 45% overall.

That matters enormously to legacy brands.

A 30-year relationship with a retailer or food brand doesn't automatically protect it when consumers can discover another product, another retailer or another price with a few taps.

The 2025 EY Future Consumer Index found that U.S. consumers were increasingly prioritizing price and quality over brand familiarity. The same research found that 55% of consumers who try private-label products eventually switch back to national brands—but nearly half of those returning cite better quality, taste or performance.

That tells food marketers something important:

Private label isn't merely a cheap substitute anymore.

It can become a legitimate competitor to the national brand on the very dimensions—quality, taste and performance—that legacy brands traditionally used to defend their premium.

 

4. GENERATION Z: DISCOVERY HAS LEFT THE AISLE

If Baby Boomers demonstrate the continuing power of trust and in-store discovery, Gen Z demonstrates what happens when discovery begins before the shopping trip.

FMI's 2024 research found Gen Z shoppers were significantly more likely than average to seek additional information about products and stores before shopping. Forty-five percent of Gen Z used their phones to make grocery lists, compared with 29% overall.

By 2026, the behavior had accelerated.

FMI reported that 92% of Gen Z beverage shoppers use social media to discover new beverages, with 58% using TikTok and 55% Instagram.

And FMI's broader 2026 grocery research found that Gen Z shoppers visit an average of 6.7 retailers per month, more than any other generation. Nine out of 10 use at least one digital tool to plan grocery trips.

That is not traditional brand loyalty.

That is continuous discovery.

The product doesn't necessarily have to be discovered on the shelf. It can be discovered through a recipe, creator, social video, search result, AI tool, friend, review or digital promotion—and then purchased somewhere else.

The implications for legacy food brands are enormous.

 

BUT HERE IS THE BIG DEMOGRAPHIC COMMON DENOMINATOR: PRICE MATTERS TO EVERYBODY

This is where the data gets particularly interesting.

Food marketers sometimes talk about younger shoppers as though they are driven by experiences while older shoppers are driven by price.

The data doesn't support such a simple division.

Price matters across generations.

YouGov's 2025 grocery research found that 75.9% of U.S. consumers said they are usually looking for the lowest prices. The generational numbers were:

·       Gen X: 78.0%

·       Millennials: 75.7%

·       Gen Z: 76.4%

·       Baby Boomers: 74.7%

That's remarkably close.

And FMI's 2026 research reinforces the point: low pricing was the most frequently cited influential factor in choosing a grocery store, at 71%. Seventy-three percent of consumers reported adopting new shopping habits during the previous year to cope with rising costs, while 42% regularly visited multiple grocery stores to find lower prices.

So, yes:

Food discovery matters to every generation.

Price matters to every generation.

But how consumers discover and how they define value can be radically different.

That is the demographic opportunity.

 

FOOD DISCOVERY IS UNIVERSAL—THE DISCOVERY ENGINE IS NOT

This may be one of the most important findings for food marketers.

The consumer wants discovery.

But the discovery mechanism changes with age.

Boomer discovery:
Shelf signage, in-store merchandising, familiarity, trusted recommendations and the physical shopping experience.

Gen X discovery:
In-store merchandising combined with digital coupons, smartphone research, promotions and practical value.

Millennial discovery:
Digital information, social media, convenience, recommendations, price comparison, new products and experiences.

Gen Z discovery:
Social media, TikTok, Instagram, creators, digital communities, recipes, reviews, AI and peer recommendations.

FMI's 2026 research says shoppers still visit stores because they want to select products themselves: 48% said that is what they would miss most if they couldn't grocery shop in person. Discovery itself was cited by 17%.

So the physical store isn't dead.

Digital discovery simply means the shopping journey starts earlier.

 

TRUST MAY BE THE MOST IMPORTANT WORD IN FOOD MARKETING IN 2026

Now comes the bigger issue.

TRUST.

YouGov's 2026 research found that 74% of Americans consider honesty an important brand value and 71% cite trustworthiness, while 60% value consistency between what a brand says and what it does.

For Baby Boomers, trust is even more powerful.

But trust isn't simply an emotional concept.

In food marketing, trust can mean:

Is the price honest?

Is the package honest?

Is the portion honest?

Is the promotion honest?

Is the food what the brand says it is?

Is the quality consistent?

Is the retailer treating the shopper fairly?

And in today's economic environment, consumers are scrutinizing those questions more closely.

FMI's 2025 research found 70% of shoppers were extremely or very worried about rising grocery prices, while 44% were shopping multiple stores to find better value. Another FMI report said 90% of shoppers expressed concern about rising food prices and 78% were concerned about the impact of tariffs.

That is where economic uncertainty and government-policy uncertainty intersect with brand value.

Consumers don't need a political lecture from a food brand.

They need something much more basic:

Tell me what it costs. Tell me what I'm getting. Give me a fair value. And then deliver what you promised.

That is trust.

 

LEGACY BRANDS: THE REAL RISK ISN'T THAT CONSUMERS HATE YOU

The real risk is that consumers no longer need you.

For decades, legacy food brands benefited from familiarity.

Consumers knew the name.

They knew the package.

They knew where to find it.

They knew what it tasted like.

They trusted it.

But today's consumer has dramatically more opportunities to discover alternatives.

FMI's 2026 private-brand research found that 92% of U.S. grocery shoppers currently have store-brand products in their homes, while private-brand dollar sales increased 2.8% year over year, ahead of national-brand growth. Nearly half of shoppers increased their private-brand purchases during the previous year.

That changes the competitive equation.

The question for a legacy brand is no longer:

"Does the consumer know us?"

The consumer probably does.

The better question is:

"Why should the consumer choose us today?"

That's a very different marketing question.

And the answer can't simply be:

"Because we've been around for 75 years."

 

THE GROCERANT GURU® VIEW: THERE ARE NO DEMOGRAPHIC SILOS IN THE CONSUMER'S MIND

From my perspective as the Grocerant Guru®, the biggest mistake food marketers can make is assuming that demographic differences mean consumers live in separate marketing silos.

They don't.

A 72-year-old Baby Boomer may buy a prepared meal at a grocery store.

A 45-year-old Gen Xer may grab dinner at a convenience store.

A 34-year-old Millennial may order restaurant delivery and pick up groceries on the same trip.

A 22-year-old Gen Zer may discover a food product on TikTok, compare its price online and buy it at a mass retailer.

That's the Grocerant consumer.

The consumer doesn't care which organizational silo produced the food.

They care about price, quality, taste, convenience, portability, discovery, trust and the experience.

And that means the real competition isn't simply Kroger versus Aldi or Trader Joe's versus Whole Foods.

It is every food occasion competing for the consumer's next food dollar.

Three Insights from the Grocerant Guru®

1. DEMOGRAPHICS MATTER—BUT CONSUMER OCCASIONS MATTER MORE.

Boomers, Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z clearly behave differently. But they can all want the same thing at 6:00 p.m.: "What's for dinner?"

The winning retailer or foodservice operator will understand the demographic without allowing the demographic to become a silo.

2. PRICE GETS YOU INTO THE CONSIDERATION SET. TRUST KEEPS YOU THERE.

The data shows that price matters across generations. But price alone is not a sustainable brand strategy.

Consumers increasingly want proof that the value equation is fair: price + quality + convenience + experience + trust.

3. LEGACY FOOD BRANDS SHOULD STOP MARKETING TO THEIR HISTORY AND START MARKETING TO THE CONSUMER'S PRESENT.

Your brand's history may explain why consumers know you.

It doesn't necessarily explain why they should buy you tomorrow.

In an environment of economic uncertainty, expanding private label, digital discovery, AI-assisted shopping and increasingly sophisticated consumers, trust has to be earned at every transaction.

The grocery consumer isn't disappearing.

The old definition of the grocery consumer is.

And that may be the most important demographic fact in food marketing today.

 

Success Leaves Clues—Are You Ready to Find Yours?

One key insight that continues to drive success is this: "The consumer is dynamic, not static." This principle is the foundation of our work at Foodservice Solutions®, where Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, has been helping brands stay relevant in an ever-evolving market.

Want to strengthen your brand’s connection with today’s consumers? Let’s talk. Call 253-759-7869 for more information.

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At Foodservice Solutions®, we specialize in consumer-driven retail food strategies that enhance convenience, differentiation, and individualization—key factors in driving growth.

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