Meals, Menus, and The Cost of Eating in America

 

Grocery Stores: More Than Just Sticker Shock

Food Fact: The grocery food index rose 0.3% in June — mirroring May’s increase — with notable price hikes in essentials like coffee, beef, and fresh produce.

Grocery stores have long been pillars of American food culture, evolving from mom-and-pop markets to supermarket giants and digital-first fulfillment hubs. But while food-at-home inflation trails restaurant inflation, the pressure is mounting. According to NIQ (formerly NielsenIQ), unit sales in U.S. grocery stores have declined by over 2% year-over-year, even as dollar sales inch upward — a clear sign of shrinkflation, smaller basket sizes, and hyper-strategic buying.

How Consumers Are Cutting Back

·       Downshifting Brands: Private labels are no longer seen as compromises. In fact, 85% of shoppers now consider store brands to be equal or better in quality than national brands, according to FMI. Store brand sales surged by $9 billion in 2024, reaching a record $271 billion, driven by innovation in categories like plant-based meals, global flavors, and clean-label snacks.

·       Fewer Trips: Weekly runs are evolving into biweekly hauls. According to Inmar Intelligence, trip frequency declined by 7% in the past year, while consumers increasingly rely on apps and digital circulars to pre-plan meals around loyalty perks, digital coupons, and BOGO events.

·       Reduced Basket Size: "Just-in-time" shopping is in. With more Americans preparing two to three mini-meals per day, the demand for fresh, portioned, and snackable goods is surging. Small-format produce (like mini avocados and snackable cucumbers), single-serve protein portions, and ready-to-use kits are leading sales growth.

 

Restaurants: Menu Prices Climb, Diners Step Back

Food Fact: Restaurant prices have increased for 27 straight months. In June, full-service menu prices jumped 0.5%, while limited-service edged up 0.2% — outpacing grocery inflation yet again.

Even as foot traffic stabilizes, consumer behavior is shifting. The National Restaurant Association reports that 58% of adults are eating at restaurants less often than they did a year ago, with middle-income households pulling back the most. Geographic disparities are also growing: full-service menu prices in the South and West are up over 4% year-over-year, compared to 2.8% in the Northeast.

How Diners Are Saving

·       Trading Down: Quick-service and fast-casual chains — particularly those with digital value menus and family bundle promotions — are gaining traction. McDonald's $5 Meal Deal and Chipotle’s loyalty boosts are prime examples of how brands are recalibrating to meet price sensitivity.

·       Skipping Sides & Extras: High-margin items like beverages, apps, and desserts are on the chopping block. Toast data shows that 45% of diners now order fewer extras compared to 2023, prompting restaurants to redesign menus with modular pricing and more value combos.

·       Dining Out Less Often: Dining is reverting to its pre-2010 pattern — a "treat behavior" rather than a regular habit. Restaurants are investing in experience enhancers: live music, chef-curated menus, and loyalty events to keep the emotional pull strong.

 

Convenience Stores: Quick Stops, Slower Sales

Food Fact: In 2024, convenience stores — typically resilient during inflation — are feeling the squeeze. Foot traffic is down, and the average basket size has decreased by 6.2%, according to NACS.

Long seen as the go-to for impulse snacks and emergency fuel, convenience stores are struggling to retain their edge. Even loyal C-store shoppers are replacing hot grab-and-go items with value-packaged snacks and protein bars purchased in bulk at grocery clubs.

How C-store Habits Are Changing

·       Reducing Grab-and-Go Purchases: Prepared foods are losing steam. Sales of roller-grill items like taquitos and hot dogs are down 8%, while shelf-stable snacks like jerky and trail mix hold steady.

·       Fuel-Only Visits: With gas prices rising, one in four C-store customers are no longer entering the store after fueling — a sharp increase from the 17% recorded just two years ago.

·       Seeking Promotions: Loyalty programs and digital deals now drive more than 30% of in-store purchases, up from 18% in 2021. Successful chains like Casey’s and Wawa are investing heavily in app-based rewards to retain high-frequency customers.

 

What Comes Next: Grocerants and Smaller Meals

According to Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru® at Foodservice Solutions®, hybrid foodservice — grocerants — are set to redefine convenience and value. These in-store kitchens serve restaurant-quality meals without delivery fees or tips, perfectly aligned with inflation-conscious households.

Grocerants now account for $43 billion in annual revenue, with growth driven by health-conscious grab-and-go meals, customizable hot bars, and global flavors like Korean BBQ bowls and Mediterranean mezze kits.

“Consumers are building meals around snacks, bundling components, and seeking flexibility,” Johnson says. This unlocks opportunity for:

·       Meal Deals in Grocery Stores: Mix-and-match bundles (entrée, side, drink) that rival fast-food combos in both price and prep time.

·       Snackable Restaurant Offerings: Shareable, snack-size portions — like sliders, bao, and flatbreads — that feel indulgent but don’t stretch the wallet.

·       Cross-Channel Innovation: Think restaurant-branded frozen meals on grocery shelves (e.g., Panera soups, PF Chang’s bowls) or grocery-exclusive LTOs tied to digital restaurant loyalty apps.

 

Final Bite: A Cautious Appetite

While inflation has cooled from its 2022 peak, its legacy still shapes the way Americans eat. The narrowing price gap between grocery and restaurant meals is forcing a rethink — not just of where consumers eat, but how they eat.

From the rise of private labels and modular meals to hybrid channels like grocerants and branded retail products, brands are being challenged to deliver value, trust, and innovation — not just affordability.

As Johnson puts it:

“Success leaves clues. Today’s clues point to smaller meals, smarter choices, and hybrid solutions.”

Are you ready for some fresh ideations? Do your food marketing ideas look more like yesterday than tomorrow? Interested in learning how our Grocerant Guru® can edify your retail food brand while creating a platform for consumer convenient meal participation, differentiation and individualization?  Email us at: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or visit: us on our social media sites by clicking one of the following links: Facebook,  LinkedIn, or Twitter

From Snacking to Menus: Healthy Is a Thing in 2025

In 2025, healthy isn’t just a label — it’s a lifestyle evolution. Thanks to shifting consumer behavior, driven in part by the widespread use of GLP-1 medications like Ozempic and Wegovy, the entire food ecosystem is rapidly adapting. From grocery aisles to restaurant menus, snacks and meals are being reformulated, resized, and reimagined to meet the needs of a population that is increasingly eating less, prioritizing protein, and steering away from salt according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

The GLP-1 Ripple Effect: Appetite Down, Innovation Up

GLP-1 drugs, originally developed for diabetes, have now exploded into the mainstream as weight loss aids and potential treatments for conditions like sleep apnea and heart disease. With a 700% increase in non-diabetic use and 52% of the U.S. population potentially eligible, the food industry is bracing for a seismic shift.

Consumers on these drugs report smaller appetites, longer-lasting satiety, and discomfort when they overeat. The effect? Reduced portion sizes, increased protein intake, and a pivot from salty snacks to savory and satisfying alternatives.

According to Mattson and Kerry’s research:

·       Smaller portion sizes are in high demand.

·       High-protein, low-sodium snacks score big.

·       Savory over salty is becoming the new norm.

·       Consumers increasingly view snacks as meal replacements.

 

Top 3 Healthy Snacking Items in 2025 by Channel

Grocery Stores

1.       Mini Protein Bowls – Single-serve bowls with grilled chicken, chickpeas, or quinoa, featuring global flavors and <400 mg sodium.

2.       2-oz Greek Yogurt Pouches – High in protein, low in sugar, easy to grab-and-go.

3.       Frozen Electrolyte Fruit Pops – Hydration-enhanced with natural fruit puree and minimal added sugar.

Convenience Stores (C-Stores)

1.       Portable Jerky Sticks (Low Sodium) – Single-serve meat sticks with added functional ingredients (e.g., turmeric or collagen).

2.       Protein-Packed Two-Bite Brownies – Low sugar, satisfying, indulgent but functional.

3.       Savory Trail Mixes – Featuring roasted chickpeas, edamame, seeds, and herbs instead of traditional salty nuts.

Restaurants

1.       Mini Bento Protein Boxes – Smaller portion entrées with lean meats, hummus, and veggies.

2.       Hydration-Boosting Beverages – Electrolyte-infused mocktails and sparkling water blends.

3.       Protein-Packed Soups & Sips – Bone broth-based sippable snacks served warm in 8-oz portions.

 

Grocerant Guru®: 5 Insights on Potential Roadblocks for the “Better-for-You” Sector

Despite the momentum, the better-for-you food segment still faces significant challenges. Here are five key stumbling blocks retailers and manufacturers must anticipate:

1. Tariffs on Imported Produce

With many healthy snacks relying on produce like avocados, berries, and specialty greens, tariffs could spike prices and disrupt supply chains. This not only raises costs but could limit availability — particularly for fresh, perishable items.

2. Rising Shipping Costs

Small portions mean higher per-unit logistics costs. A 2-oz yogurt pouch costs more to ship per calorie than a family-size bag of chips. Retailers must find new efficiency strategies to keep margins viable.

3. Consumer Default Behavior: “Chips are Comfort”

Old habits die hard. Even health-conscious shoppers often revert to chips or sugary snacks out of nostalgia or stress. Overcoming this requires re-education, sampling programs, and irresistible taste experiences.

4. Shelf-Space Battles

Better-for-you snacks must compete with legacy brands for limited shelf space, particularly in convenience formats. Retailers will need to rethink planograms to highlight functional, portion-controlled options.

5. Label Confusion and Skepticism

Consumers are savvy — and skeptical. Vague health claims or overuse of "natural" can backfire. Clear, transparent labeling on sodium content, protein grams, and functional benefits will be essential to build trust and drive trial.

 

Think About This

The rise of GLP-1 medications is reshaping what, how, and why people eat — perhaps faster than any diet trend in recent memory. For food businesses, this isn’t a niche trend. It’s a demographic transformation. From packaging and flavor to pricing and messaging, every snack and menu item must now prove its worth in smaller bites and smarter choices. Welcome to 2025 — where healthy isn't optional. It's the standard.

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Food Recalls on the Rise: How FDA Cuts Are Putting Customers, Retailers, and Restaurants at Risk

 

As of mid-2025, the number of food recalls in the United States is accelerating at a pace not seen in over a decade. From bacterial contamination in ready-to-eat meals to undeclared allergens in packaged snacks, these recalls are becoming disturbingly routine—and there’s a reason. Deep cuts to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) budget and staffing are severely compromising the agency’s ability to inspect, test, and enforce safety standards. That’s a dangerous undercurrent for consumers and food sellers alike according to Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

In 2023, the FDA had a food safety budget of approximately $1.1 billion. By 2025, after consecutive congressional rollbacks, that budget has dropped nearly 15%, and with it, staffing reductions have impacted key food safety inspection and compliance operations. According to the Center for Science in the Public Interest, the average number of routine facility inspections has dropped by 22% in the last 18 months alone.

The Consumer Fallout: Trust Eroding, Safety in Question

Consumers are increasingly left in the dark—and in danger. In recent months:

·       A major deli meat recall sickened over 250 people across 14 states.

·       An undisclosed peanut allergen in a popular plant-based frozen entrée sent at least nine people to the hospital.

·       A listeria outbreak tied to bagged salad claimed two lives and led to over 300,000 units being pulled from store shelves.

Without robust FDA oversight, consumers have less assurance that what’s on their plate is safe to eat. Retailers and foodservice operators are left to fill the regulatory void, straining resources and increasing liability risks.

 

Top 3 Food Recall Risks for Grocery Stores

1.       Private Label Exposure: With more grocery chains expanding private label offerings to capture margin, they are taking on more liability. A recall tied to a store-brand item can devastate brand trust and customer loyalty.

2.       Cold Chain Integrity: Ready-to-eat and heat-and-eat meals rely on flawless refrigeration throughout the supply chain. One slip in temperature monitoring can trigger massive recalls and product spoilage.

3.       Allergen Mislabeling: As more consumers seek allergen-free or special diet foods (gluten-free, dairy-free, nut-free), mislabeled products are a growing hazard and a primary driver of FDA recalls.

 

Top 3 Risks for Restaurants

1.       Supplier Verification Failures: Without strong FDA checks on upstream suppliers, restaurants must verify every distributor and producer themselves—raising operational complexity and cost.

2.       Cross-Contamination in Kitchens: Undeclared allergens and bacteria like salmonella or E. coli can thrive in poorly managed prep areas. A single misstep could trigger lawsuits, negative press, and health department shutdowns.

3.       Speed Over Safety: In the rush to serve food faster, many chains are cutting corners in prep procedures, which can compromise food safety without routine external checks.

 

Top 3 Risks for Convenience Stores

1.       Limited Food Safety Training: Many C-store clerks are not trained to handle or monitor perishable foods properly. Without clear guidance from FDA oversight, basic food handling errors can multiply.

2.       Grab-n-Go Vulnerabilities: Fresh sandwiches, wraps, and cut fruits are often made off-site or packaged in-store. With fewer inspections, improper handling can lead to dangerous contamination events.

3.       Third-Party Delivery Risks: Many C-stores now use third-party commissaries to prep meals. If one link in the chain fails to meet safety standards, it can cascade across dozens or hundreds of stores.

 

Four Things Consumers Must Now Keep Top of Mind

1.       Know the Source: Ask where food was made, prepared, or packaged. Trustworthy retailers and restaurants should know and be transparent about their supply chains.

2.       Check Dates & Storage: Be vigilant about “use by” and “best by” dates, and avoid items that appear improperly refrigerated or stored—especially with meats, dairy, and fresh produce.

3.       Allergen Awareness: Always read ingredient labels and don’t rely on generic “free-from” marketing tags. With fewer inspections, mislabeling risk is up.

4.       Sign Up for Recall Alerts: Visit www.foodsafety.gov and subscribe to email or SMS alerts to be notified in real time of national food recalls.

 

Think About This from the Grocerant Guru®

We’re living through a pivotal moment in American food safety. With the FDA’s reduced ability to serve as our national food watchdog, every link in the food chain—from processors and packagers to the point-of-sale—must step up. But let’s be clear: the consumer bears the highest risk. Retailers, restaurants, and C-stores must treat safety not as a regulation to follow, but as a brand pillar to build trust.

If you’re in food retail or foodservice, remember: a single recall can undo years of brand equity. As for consumers, the path forward is one of proactive awareness and vigilance. Food safety is no longer a given—it’s a shared responsibility.

Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru® at Foodservice Solutions®, is an industry thought leader specializing in consumer food trends, Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat meal solutions, and strategic branding at the intersection of grocery, restaurant, and convenience store channels.