The Great Stay-at-Home Shift: How the New HDTV Lifestyle Is Reshaping Retail Foodservice

 

Retail foodservice continues to be transformed by a powerful force I first identified more than a decade ago, by Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru®, at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®, Tacoma, WA.  Back in 2012, I called it “The 65-Inch HDTV Syndrome.” Today, with the average U.S. household TV now measuring 72 inches and home streaming consumption up 34% year over year, that syndrome has amplified — and it’s rewriting the rules of food marketing, mealtime behavior, and retail competition.

The Home Has Become the New Foodservice Hub

Foodservice Solutions® Grocerant ScoreCards reveal that 87.6% of meals served at home now include at least one Ready-2-Eat or Heat-N-Eat fresh prepared meal component, up from 83.2% just five years ago.
This confirms a simple truth: the grocerant niche is no longer emerging — it is the dominant growth driver in retail foodservice.

Consumers are building meals the same way they build streaming playlists:
mix-and-match, personalized, convenient, and frictionless.

The blurring of the lines between restaurants, grocery stores, convenience stores, dollar stores, and drug stores continues at record speed. Each is now fighting for the same customer, selling the same core product: fresh prepared food that is portioned, portable, and positioned as “better for you.”

The Modern 72-Inch HDTV Syndrome

Today’s consumer isn’t just looking for dinner —
they’re looking for a dinner experience that pairs perfectly with binge watching, sports, gaming, or simply cocooning at home.

New 2025 grocerant research highlights:

·       71% of consumers say they now plan at least three nights per week of “home-centric entertainment” (up from 54% pre-pandemic).

·       62% say they are replacing restaurant occasions with “fresh meal combos” from grocery and C-store delis.

·       48% of Gen Z say they build entire meals from two or more different retail channels (ex: C-store entrée + grocery deli sides).

Where the Battle Is Being Won: The Five P’s of Food Marketing

At the intersection of the consumer, technology, and The Five P’s of Food Marketing —
Product, Packaging, Placement, Portability, and Price —
the competitive landscape is intensifying.

Consumers rank time and convenience above price for the first time in 20 years.

·       Product: “Better for you,” fresh, clean-label is driving adoption.

·       Packaging: Self-heating, recyclable, and tamper-evident formats are the new baseline.

·       Placement: In-app visibility now rivals end-cap visibility.

·       Portability: 63% of meals are now consumed off-premise.

·       Price: Value is judged by time saved, not dollars spent.

The Digital Delivery Effect Is Still Growing

Grubhub, DoorDash, and Uber Eats report consistent double-digit growth in scheduled orders, especially tied to entertainment.
During Q3 2024, pre-game football orders spiked 41%, surpassing early 2010s trends.

“When the best seat in the house is at home, the best meal in the house must show up effortlessly,” a recent Grubhub brand memo stated — confirming what the Grocerant ScoreCards have shown all year.

Frozen Foods Continue to Decline as Fresh Wins

Packaged Facts and Circana data show:

·       The $48 billion frozen foods category grew only 0.7% in units in 2024.

·       59% of consumers say they now purchase fewer frozen items due to a preference for fresh meal components.

·       44% of Millennials say frozen meals feel “less real” compared to deli-prepared equivalents.

Fresh prepared Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat foods in nontraditional outlets pose the largest threat to restaurant traffic since 2008.

 

Three New Insights from the Grocerant Guru®

1. The “Home Meal Experience Economy” Is Here

People aren’t buying food — they’re buying an experience tailored to a screen, a moment, and a mood. Retailers who package meals by occasion (Movie Night, Rivalry Game Day, Cozy Sunday Bundles) will win.

2. The New Value Equation Is “Time × Personalization”

Consumers want meals that reduce friction, not budgets. A $14 deli meal beats a $9 frozen meal if it saves 20 minutes of prep and cleanup.

3. Meal Components Are the New Currency of Retail Foodservice

Retailers must think like Spotify: offer components, remix options, and customizable bundles. The more modular the menu, the higher the frequency and the greater the basket size.

 

Want to Lead in the 72-Inch HDTV Era?

Fresh prepared food is the battlefield.
Meal components are the ammunition.
Convenience is the currency.

For international corporate presentations, keynotes, or executive strategy sessions, contact:

Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru®
Foodservice Solutions®, Tacoma, WA
www.GrocerantGuru.com | www.FoodserviceSolutions.us
1-253-759-7869

All Food Retailers Need to Focus on or Pay Attention to SNAP

At the intersection of What’s for Dinner and Food Sales is the United States Department of Agriculture SNAP Program.  So just what is SNAP: SNAP provides nutrition benefits to supplement the food budget of needy families so they can purchase healthy food and move towards self-sufficiency. Focus o

Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®, stated, “all food retailers need to understand how the SNAP program can or could help them drive top-line sales and bottom-line profits. That includes Restaurants, Convenience Stores, Grocery Stores, Dollar Stores, and Bodegas.”

First did you know that overall, SNAP consumers account for nearly one-quarter (24%) of total CPG spend, and are more likely to have children, live in urban areas and be in the bottom 30th percentile in purchasing power compared to non-SNAP consumers. 

In case you did not know, Numerator, a data and tech company serving the market research space, has released its latest report—Helping SNAP Consumers During Economic Headwinds—which examines the full impact of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) on modern consumers through the analysis of verified purchases by SNAP recipients. Overall, SNAP consumers account for nearly one-quarter (24%) of total CPG spend, and are more likely to have children, live in urban areas and be in the bottom 30th percentile in purchasing power compared to non-SNAP consumers. Here are more findings:

Consumer Behavior & Sentiment Findings:

·         SNAP recipients represent a diverse group of consumers. 61% of SNAP recipients are in the bottom 30th percentile in terms of purchasing power, 45% have children (compared to 28% of non-SNAP households), 29% have 5+ members in their household, and 37% are Gen Z or Millennial. Compared to non-SNAP households, SNAP households are twice as likely to be Black/African-American or Hispanic/Latino. 

·         Economic uncertainty affects SNAP households more severely. 79% say their financial situation is the same or better compared to the prior year, but 1 in 5 SNAP households say they are overwhelmed with financial burdens and 56% are concerned about job stability (compared to 31% of non-SNAP recipients). 

·         Even with government assistance, SNAP recipients feel food insecurity. Over 1 in 4 SNAP consumers (26%) say they are unable to buy enough food to feed their family. 

·         Health issues and healthcare costs are significant concerns. SNAP consumers are 3.8x more likely to be disabled, and they are 56% more likely to be not actively managing their health, compared to non-SNAP consumers.

·         Utilization of SNAP during a shopping trip results in larger purchases. When SNAP consumers utilize their benefits during a shopping trip, basket size is $15 more, spend per trip on groceries is almost $18 more, and units per trip double (from 5.2 to 10.4).

·         SNAP recipients are disproportionately spending more per unit. In the latest quarter ending 12/31/2022 compared to YA, SNAP consumers are paying 13% more per unit, compared to 11% more for non-SNAP consumers – driven by increased inflation on baby and health & beauty products that SNAP consumers over-index on, as well as in the Dollar channel.

·         To save money, SNAP recipients are pulling back on snacks. Units purchased per household are down significantly in snack categories such as popcorn (-23.6% vs YA), meat snacks (-18%), and snack seeds, nuts & trail mixes (-15.9%).

·         Trading down to private label helps to reduce the sting of inflation.  Although unit sales are down, Walmart, Aldi and Kirkland private labels are outperforming branded CPG. For example, Great Value unit sales are down 4% vs YA, compared to branded unit sales dropping 20%.

·         Affordable luxuries like personal care items have not seen a pullback on spending. Categories such as toothbrushes (+6.3% units per household vs YA), beer (+4.6%) and face makeup (-0.5%) are holding their own or growing with SNAP consumers.

·         SNAP consumers vary their shopping locations. SNAP consumers are 56% more likely to spend their CPG dollars at Dollar stores, 24% more likely at Convenience stores, and 12% more likely at Mass retailers (compared to non-SNAP consumers). 

·         Regional and ethnic grocery stores are winning SNAP household trips because of their lower price increases. Among the retailers growing trips with SNAP households are H-Mart (42% of projected trips), Market Basket (42%), Whole Foods Market (36%), 99 Ranch Market (35%), and Wegmans (31%). 

·         SNAP consumers are 37% more likely to eat out four or more times per week, but they are moving food trips back to stores. As SNAP recipients pull back on dining out, Starbucks, KFC, Burger King and Little Caesars are seeing the most lost trips.

·         More inclusive grocery delivery services would benefit consumers and retailers. 20% of SNAP recipients say they wish that grocery delivery services made it easier to utilize their program benefits. Currently, 12.9% of SNAP consumers use Walmart+, followed by DoorDash DashPass (5%), and Albertsons Freshpass (4.3%). 

About Numerator:

Numerator is a data and tech company bringing speed and scale to market research.  Numerator blends first-party data from over 1 million US households with advanced technology to provide 360-degree consumer understanding for the market research industry that has been slow to change. Headquartered in Chicago, IL, Numerator has 2,000 employees worldwide; 80 of the top 100 CPG brands’ manufacturers are Numerator clients.

Who are you selling to today?  Where can you be selling food tomorrow and to whom?

Don’t over reach. Are you ready for some fresh ideations? Do your food marketing ideations look more like yesterday than tomorrow? Interested in learning how Foodservice Solutions® can edify your retail food brand while creating a platform for consumer convenient meal participation, differentiation and individualization?  Email us at: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or visit us on our social media sites by clicking the following links: Facebook,  LinkedIn, or Twitter