Look
around. Talk to your friends. Watch what consumers are doing at 4 p.m. on a
Tuesday.
One
thing becomes increasingly clear: “What’s for dinner?” has become one of the
most valuable questions in the food industry according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at
Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®
And
in 2026, the answer is increasingly not a recipe. It is an experience, a
solution, a combination of meal components, a social occasion, a value
proposition—and sometimes simply a decision that requires the least amount of
work.
Americans
still love food. They still love restaurants. They still enjoy cooking. They
still enjoy gathering around a table.
But
consumers are increasingly asking a different question:
Why
should dinner be difficult?
That
is where the Grocerant Opportunity begins.
The
consumer does not think in traditional industry silos. They don't wake up
thinking, “Tonight I am going to purchase something from the grocery channel.”
They
think:
“What
am I going to eat?”
That
distinction is becoming more important every year.
The Dinner Decision Is the New Battleground
In
2024, Deloitte found that 53% of consumers said figuring out what’s for
dinner was a major pain point. That number rose to 66% among Gen Z and
60% among Millennials, while 62% of households with children struggled with
the evening meal decision. Even more telling, 44% said they would regularly buy
from a grocery store that helped them with meal planning.
Think
about what that means.
The
consumer may not have decided whether dinner will come from a restaurant,
grocery store, convenience store, delivery platform, prepared-food counter,
drive-thru, frozen-food aisle or some combination of all of them.
The
meal occasion is up for grabs.
And
the retailer or restaurant that helps consumers make that decision first has a
significant competitive advantage.
Circana
reported in 2024 that U.S. consumers sourced 81% of their dinners from home,
compared with 78% before the pandemic. At the same time, restaurant checks were
rising and consumers were becoming more careful about restaurant spending.
That
creates an enormous opportunity for Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat food.
It
also creates an enormous warning for food marketers:
Being
in the consumer's refrigerator does not necessarily mean you own dinner.
Consumers Want Dinner. They Don't Always Want to Cook
Dinner.
In
2024, FMI reported that the percentage of shoppers preparing dinner at home at
least seven times a week increased from 21% to 23%.
But
here is the important part: “home dinner” does not necessarily mean “cooked
completely from scratch.”
FMI
found that 59% of shoppers wanted the opportunity to purchase a combination
of prepared foods—including a main course, side dishes and dessert—for a set
discounted price.
In
other words:
Consumers
want dinner. They increasingly want somebody else to do some of the work.
That
is the Grocerant model.
The
consumer can purchase the chicken, salad, potatoes and dessert—or perhaps just
the chicken and salad—and create the meal at home.
This
is not failure to cook.
It
is successful meal assembly.
The
old foodservice industry asked: Did we prepare the entire meal?
The
2026 consumer asks:
“Did
you help me get dinner on the table?”
That
is a very different measurement.
2025: Grocery Began Looking More Like Foodservice
By
2025, this behavior had moved well beyond a niche trend.
FMI
reported that consumers choosing deli-prepared foods as a substitute for
restaurant meals had more than doubled—from 12% in 2017 to 28% in 2025.
Even
more important, 53% of Americans were taking a hybrid approach to meal
preparation, combining deli-prepared foods with items prepared in their own
kitchens.
That
number should make every restaurant executive, supermarket executive and
convenience-store operator stop and think.
The
competition isn't necessarily:
Restaurant
vs. grocery store.
Increasingly,
it is:
Restaurant
+ grocery + convenience + delivery + home preparation = dinner.
The
consumer is mixing channels.
There
are no silos in the consumer's mind.
There
is only the meal occasion.
FMI
also found in 2025 that 26% of shoppers prepared dinner at home seven or
more times per week, exceeding the 23% record established in 2020.
Meanwhile, grocery deli foodservice reached approximately $52.1 billion,
with prepared meals and items accounting for $19.6 billion and growing 3.7% in
dollar sales.
That
is not simply grocery.
That
is foodservice hiding inside retail.
2026: Convenience Is Becoming a Food Attribute
Now
move forward to 2026.
McKinsey's
2026 grocery research found that the leading reasons consumers purchase
prepared foods from grocers include convenience, cited by 74%, and saving
time, cited by 68%. McKinsey also reported that prepared-food purchase
frequency increased 9% year over year from August 2024 to August 2025.
That
is a profound shift.
For
years, the food industry treated convenience as a merchandising feature.
In
2026, convenience is becoming part of the food product itself.
A
chicken breast isn't simply a chicken breast.
A
rotisserie chicken that requires no preparation, is available now and can feed
multiple people is a meal solution.
A
deli pizza that can go from store shelf to family table is a meal solution.
A
refrigerated bowl that requires two minutes of heating is a meal solution.
A
handful of prepared foods that consumers combine into a personalized dinner is
a meal solution.
The
product isn't merely food.
The
product is time.
The 30-Minute Dinner Is Becoming a 30-Second Decision
YouGov
reported in 2025 that 60% of Americans preferred to spend less than 30
minutes cooking dinner, including 12% who preferred to spend no time
cooking at all.
That
doesn't mean Americans have stopped caring about food.
It
means consumers increasingly want to spend their time eating food rather
than managing food.
This
is particularly important as households become smaller, work patterns remain
fluid and consumers continue to move between work, home, school, entertainment,
social occasions and other commitments.
The
traditional three-part dinner—entrée, side and beverage—has also become
increasingly fluid.
Dinner
might be:
A
sandwich.
A
bowl.
A
pizza.
A
salad with protein.
Chicken
wings and vegetables.
A
combination of deli foods.
A
restaurant entrée shared at home.
A
collection of snacks that collectively becomes dinner.
A
Heat-N-Eat entrée supplemented with something fresh.
Or
a restaurant meal combined with a grocery-store side.
Dinner
has become modular.
That
is why I continue to believe that Mix-and-Match Meal Component Bundling
is one of the most important opportunities in food marketing.
The Rise of the “New Dinner”
FMI's
2025 research offers another fascinating clue.
The
organization reported that 22% of consumers had purchased what has been called
“girl dinner” from grocery deli-prepared foods—but that number jumped to 40%
among Gen Z and 39% among Millennials.
What
is “girl dinner”?
It
can be olives, cheese, crackers, fruit, deli meats and other small foods
assembled into an informal meal.
The
name may change.
The
behavior won't.
Consumers
are increasingly comfortable constructing meals from components rather than
purchasing a predetermined meal architecture.
That
means the food industry should stop asking only:
“What
entrée should we sell?”
And
start asking:
“What
components can we sell that consumers can turn into dinner?”
That
is a much larger opportunity.
But Here's the Twist: Consumers Still Want Other People
Here
is where my original thinking remains just as relevant in 2026.
Convenience
does not mean consumers want isolation.
Digital
convenience does not eliminate the human need for connection.
Food
remains one of the world's oldest social technologies.
People
gather around food.
Families
gather around food.
Friends
gather around food.
Coworkers
gather around food.
Communities
gather around food.
And
increasingly, consumers are looking for ways to make convenient food feel more
personal.
That
may mean ordering a restaurant meal and sharing it at home.
It
may mean building a dinner from grocery deli components.
It
may mean meeting friends at a food hall.
It
may mean picking up takeout rather than cooking.
Or
it may mean sitting down with family after somebody else did most of the
preparation.
Interestingly,
the restaurant industry itself is rediscovering the importance of human
interaction. In September 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported that
major fast-food chains were shifting some attention away from excessive
automation and back toward hospitality and human service after consumers
expressed dissatisfaction with impersonal experiences. McDonald's, for example,
is undertaking a major hospitality initiative and retraining more than two
million workers globally.
That
is an important lesson:
Technology
can make getting dinner easier. Humans make dinner memorable.
The
winning food brands will increasingly understand both.
Price Still Matters—But Value Is Bigger Than Price
There
is another critical component to the 2026 dinner equation:
Value.
Consumers
remain price conscious.
But
value is not simply the lowest price.
Value
increasingly means:
Price
+ Quality + Convenience + Variety + Speed + Experience + Portability.
A
$7 meal that requires 45 minutes of preparation may not be perceived as a
better value than a $10 meal that is ready in five minutes.
Likewise,
a $12 restaurant meal may compete successfully against a $9 grocery meal if the
restaurant provides an experience consumers cannot easily replicate at home.
The
question is no longer simply:
“What
does dinner cost?”
It
is:
“What
is dinner worth to me tonight?”
That
is a fundamentally different consumer calculation.
The Battle for Dinner Begins Before 4 p.m.
Food
marketers should also rethink when the dinner competition begins.
Dinner
isn't won at 6:30 p.m.
It
may be won at 10 a.m.
It
may be won at noon.
It
may be won at 3 p.m.
Or
it may be won when a consumer walks into a store at 5:17 p.m. and sees a
compelling Ready-2-Eat meal solution.
Deloitte's
2024 research showed that consumers are asking retailers for help with dinner
planning, particularly younger consumers.
That
means the smartest retailers will not simply merchandise food.
They
will merchandise decisions.
“Tonight's
Dinner for Four.”
“Dinner
for Two Under $20.”
“Five-Minute
Family Dinner.”
“Build
Your Own Dinner.”
“Protein
+ Two Sides.”
“Heat,
Eat & Share.”
“Dinner
for One—No Leftovers Required.”
The
opportunity is not just selling food.
The
opportunity is removing the friction between hunger and dinner.
What’s for Dinner in 2026?
The
answer is increasingly:
Whatever
makes sense tonight.
Sometimes
that means cooking.
Sometimes
it means takeout.
Sometimes
it means delivery.
Sometimes
it means a restaurant.
Sometimes
it means the grocery deli.
Sometimes
it means the convenience store.
Sometimes
it means a frozen entrée.
Sometimes
it means a handful of prepared components.
Sometimes
it means all of the above.
That
is why I have long argued that there are no silos in the consumer's mind.
The
consumer doesn't care which industry association claims the meal.
They
care whether the meal is:
Available.
Affordable. Good. Fast. Convenient. Shareable. Portable. And worth the money.
That
is the definition of the modern Grocerant opportunity.
Insights from the Grocerant Guru®
1. Own the decision, not just the food.
The
next generation of food marketing will increasingly compete for the “What’s
for dinner?” decision before competing for the transaction.
AI-powered
meal planning, personalized recommendations, digital loyalty programs,
prepared-food merchandising and real-time inventory can turn retailers and
restaurants into dinner decision engines.
The
winning question will not be:
“What
do you want to buy?”
It
will be:
“What
kind of dinner do you need tonight?”
That
moves food marketing from product-centric merchandising to consumer-centric
meal orchestration.
2. Build dinners like consumers build playlists.
Consumers
increasingly mix components, cuisines, brands, channels and price points.
Why
shouldn't dinner merchandise work the same way?
Give
consumers the protein.
Give
them the side.
Give
them the beverage.
Give
them the dessert.
Give
them the sauce.
Give
them the snack.
Then
let the consumer create the experience.
Personalization
doesn't always require customization in a kitchen. Sometimes it simply requires
giving consumers the right components.
3. Never underestimate the power of gathering around food.
Technology
changes.
Channels
change.
Menus
change.
But
humans remain social.
Food
remains one of the simplest and most powerful ways to connect people.
Restaurants
should continue investing in hospitality.
Grocers
should create places and products that encourage sharing.
Convenience
stores should recognize that food can be more than fuel.
And
every food retailer should remember that a meal is an experience—not merely
calories in a container.
4. Make the food good enough that consumers want it again
tomorrow.
Convenience
may win tonight.
Quality
wins tomorrow.
The
future of food will not be built by choosing between convenience and quality.
It
will be built by combining them.
The
consumer wants one now and one later:
One
solution for tonight.
One
reason to come back tomorrow.
That
is where the future value of the Grocerant opportunity becomes particularly
powerful.
The
food industry has spent decades fighting over restaurants versus grocery
stores, foodservice versus retail, fresh versus frozen, prepared versus scratch
and dine-in versus takeout.
But
the consumer has already moved beyond those arguments.
The
consumer simply wants dinner.
And
in 2026, the company that makes answering “What's for dinner?” easiest,
fastest, most valuable and most enjoyable may be the company that wins the meal
occasion.
The
future of food isn't about owning a channel.
It's
about owning the moment when the consumer decides what to eat.
That
is the real Battle for Share of Stomach.
Are you ready for some fresh ideations?
Do your food marketing ideas look more like yesterday than tomorrow? Interested
in learning how our Grocerant Guru® can edify your retail food brand while
creating a platform for consumer convenient meal participation, differentiation
and individualization? Email us at: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or visit: us on our social media
sites by clicking one of the following links: Facebook, LinkedIn, or Twitter
