2026 Food Price Forecast: Relief or Rebound? CPI Data Reveal What Shoppers Will Face Across Grocery, Convenience, and Restaurant Sectors

 

As 2025 wraps up, labor statistics and industry forecasts point to continued food price inflation in 2026 — but at moderated levels compared with recent years. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that overall food prices rose about 2.6 percent over the last year, with food at home (grocery store purchases) up 1.9 percent and food away from home (restaurant meals) up 3.7–3.9 percent in late 2025.

USDA-linked forecasting models and macroeconomic estimates currently anticipate that food price inflation will continue into 2026 but slow relative to recent peaks, with baseline food CPI inflation likely around 2.3–3.3 percent for 2026.

Below is a sector-specific breakdown of three reasons prices might come down in 2026 and three reasons prices may not — followed by a short, current price forecast and implications for consumers.

 

Grocery Stores

Reasons Grocery Prices Might Come Down

1. Inflation Has Moderated Compared to Recent Years
Annual CPI growth for food at home has slowed to under 2 percent in late 2025, a material decrease from the double-digit surges seen earlier in the decade. Continued normalization in agricultural supply chains could further ease upward pressure.

2. Supply Chain Stabilization
As global supply chains continue to strengthen and freight/logistics bottlenecks ease, cost pass-through to retail may weaken, enabling retailers to keep list prices stable or offer targeted price promotions.

3. Private-Label and Data-Driven Pricing Strategies
Retailers are increasingly using private-label programs and data analytics to optimize stocks and reduce mark-ups on staples — an efficiency that may translate to localized price relief.

Reasons Grocery Prices May Not Come Down

1. Baseline Food Price Inflation Continues
Most forecasts still see grocery prices increasing in 2026. USDA-linked CPI projections put food-at-home inflation at roughly +2.3 percent for 2026 — indicating prices are still expected to rise year-over-year.

2. Input Cost Volatility (Protein, Dairy, Produce)
Commodities such as beef, eggs, and dairy have shown persistent supply variability. Elevated input costs often continue to be passed through to retail.

3. Tariff and Trade Pressures
Import tariffs and regulatory costs can raise baseline costs for fresh produce and specialty goods, reinforcing baseline price growth even if inflation eases overall.

Grocery Price Forecast (2026)

·       Food at Home CPI projected ~ +2.3 percent in 2026.

·       Meats & Poultry subcomponents likely higher than average CPI, given recent trends.

 

Convenience Stores

Reasons Convenience Store Prices Might Come Down

1. Competitive Value Pressure
Price-sensitive consumers are increasingly browsing across channels, encouraging convenience retailers to offer lower headline prices or promotional bundles to maintain volume.

2. Expanded Fresh & Ready-to-Eat Options
Retailers introducing fresh prepared foods and private-label snacks at competitive price points can help stabilize average price levels.

3. Loyalty and Bundling Mechanics
Rewards programs and bundled pricing help mitigate consumers’ effective cost even if sticker prices remain flat.

Reasons Convenience Store Prices May Not Come Down

1. Narrow Margins & High Operating Costs
Convenience retailers typically operate on thin margins with significant fixed costs (rent, labor). These retailers often pass inflation straight to customers.

2. Food-Away-From-Home Inflation Trends
CPI data show that food away from home — including many convenience prepared foods — continued to rise faster than grocery prices (near +3.7–3.9 percent in 2025).

3. Immediate Need Purchases Carry Inelastic Pricing
Consumers are willing to pay a premium for immediacy, reducing price elasticity and limiting downward price movement.

Convenience Store Price Forecast (2026)

·       Prepared food & beverage CPI expected to continue carrying premium inflation (similar to broader food-away-from-home trends), in the +3.0 to +4.0 percent range.

 

Restaurants

Reasons Restaurant Prices Might Come Down

1. Slowing Menu Price Inflation
Recent industry data show menu price inflation slowing compared to the strongest periods of post-pandemic hikes; competitive dynamics may intensify as traffic softens.

2. Consumer Traffic & Value Deals
Lower discretionary spending can force restaurants — particularly quick service and limited-service segments — to lean on value offerings and promotions.

3. Operational Efficiencies
Adoption of more efficient ordering tech, labor management tools, and smaller menus can reduce cost pressure and support more competitive pricing.

Reasons Restaurant Prices May Not Come Down

1. Labor & Service Costs Remain Elevated
Restaurants face fixed wage and operating costs that are structurally higher than in prior decades — costs that are difficult to reduce without degrading service.

2. Restaurant CPI Exceeds Grocery CPI
Food away from home CPI has historically run above grocery store inflation; in late 2025 it was ~+3.9 percent, and similar momentum into 2026 is expected.

3. Value Perception Allows Premium Pricing
Consumers may pay a premium for convenience and experience, limiting the extent to which operators discount menus.

Restaurant Price Forecast (2026)

·       Food Away From Home CPI expected roughly +3.3 percent in 2026 under USDA-linked projections.

·       Full-service dining may see higher than average CPI growth compared with limited-service.

 

Grocerant Guru® Perspective: What Consumers Will Feel in 2026

Consumers will feel moderated increases, not broad price reductions. After a string of heightened food inflation, the trend for 2026 is toward slower price growth. Grocery store prices are expected to rise in the ~2–3 percent range, convenience store prepared foods in the ~3–4 percent range, and restaurant pricing near ~3+ percent — all below recent peaks but still upward.

Discontinuity in shopping behavior will accelerate.

1.       Shoppers will shift spending more toward value-oriented grocery retailers and away from higher premium restaurant meals when price differentials are significant.

2.       Convenience stores will compete more aggressively on prepared, value-oriented fare, and loyalty programs will become decisive in capturing repeat spend.

3.       Restaurants that innovate on bundled pricing, limited menus, and digital ordering will capture demand even amid tighter budgets — while full-service operators that resist value-oriented pricing risk traffic declines.

Who wins in 2026?

·       Grocery retailers with strong private-label portfolios and digital commerce/fulfillment will attract the broadest share of consumer food spend.

·       Convenience stores that sharpen fresh and affordable meal combos will retain high-frequency buyers.

·       Restaurants that lean into value-driven offerings and tech-enabled efficiencies may hold share, even while base menu prices continue to climb modestly.

In 2026, food price relief will not be dramatic; instead, shoppers will see slower increases across categories — a calibration toward historical norms rather than a return to pre-inflation price levels.

Elevate Your Brand with Expert Insights

For corporate presentations, regional chain strategies, educational forums, or keynote speaking, Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, delivers actionable insights that fuel success.

With deep experience in restaurant operations, brand positioning, and strategic consulting, Steven provides valuable takeaways that inspire and drive results.

💡 Visit GrocerantGuru.com or FoodserviceSolutions.US
📞 Call 1-253-759-7869

Hand Held Power: How Finger-Ready Food Is Re-Shaping Breakfast, Lunch & Dinner

 

At the intersection of the consumer, meal-time fragmentation, and digital engagement sits the most powerful driver of retail foodservice growth today: hand held food; that according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®. Whether it's breakfast burritos at 6:15 a.m., a grab-and-go protein wrap at noon, or portable sliders for the late-night snack economy, consumers are increasingly choosing meals they can eat with their hands—anywhere, anytime.

According to recent industry tracking, 63% of all foodservice occasions now involve a portable, hand-held item, and over 72% of Gen Z and Millennials report preferring meals they can eat “on the move.” That is no anomaly—it is the new consumer rhythm shaping restaurants, convenience stores, and grocery service delis.

Hand held food is no longer a menu category—it is a behavioral trend, a digital engagement engine, and a delivery-friendly format tailor-made for today’s mobile consumer.

 

The Intersection of Breakfast, Lunch, and Dinner—Now Served in Your Hand

Consumers are no longer eating by daypart; they’re eating by need-state, and hand held meals solve nearly every need-state:

·       Breakfast: Sales of portable breakfast items grew 11.4% YOY, led by breakfast burritos (+15%), stuffed croissants (+9%), and protein-centric wraps (+18%).

·       Lunch: Over 54% of workplace lunches are eaten away from a desk, car, or kitchen—perfect conditions for sandwiches, bowls-to-go, and wraps.

·       Dinner: Late-day meal fragmentation fueled a 19% rise in “snack-meals,” driving demand for sliders, flatbreads, tacos, and other hand-friendly items.

Consumers don’t want cutlery; they want convenience, speed, and simplicity—all packaged in a format that feels fresh, high quality, and familiar.

 

Hand-Led Marketing: Where Digital Behavior Meets Finger Food

Hardee’s Tinder partnership was a clue. Today, Hand-Led Marketing—marketing delivered directly into consumers’ hands via mobile—has become the catalyst connecting portable food to digital behavior.

Key hand-led marketing dynamics include:

1. Mobile-First Promotions

Over 81% of restaurant digital coupon redemptions occur on phones, and hand-held meal deals outperform plated meals by 2.3x in click-to-purchase conversion.

2. Social Pairing

Platforms such as TikTok, Snapchat, and Instagram amplify portable food. “One-handed eating” aligns perfectly with social content creation. A 14-second video featuring a sandwich or wrap is 47% more likely to be shared than plated meal content.

3. Gamified Loyalty

Rewards tied to hand held foods—BOGOs, bundle deals, or mix-and-match snack-meal challenges—generate 28% stronger participation among Gen Z and young Millennials.

4. Cross-Category Brand Partnerships

Just as Hardee’s tapped Tinder, emerging collaborations with energy drink brands, convenience tech platforms, apparel brands, and micro-influencers are creating new distribution gravity.

The consumer’s hand is the new media channel.

 

Fresh Food Delivery: Hand Held Dominates the Last Mile

Delivery is now engineered around portability. According to third-party delivery platforms:

·       Hand held items travel 32% better in terms of temperature, integrity, and customer satisfaction scores.

·       Portable meals now make up 57% of all delivery orders across restaurants, C-stores, and grocers.

·       Delivery bundles built on hand held items (sandwich + side + beverage) have grown 23% YOY.

C-stores saw portable meal delivery increase 31%, driven by breakfast sandwiches, chicken tenders, wraps, and pizza slices. Grocery service delis saw similar momentum with handheld rotisserie chicken wraps, sushi hand rolls, and grab-and-go sliders—formats built for the freshness + portability equation.

Fresh + portable = delivery optimized.

 

New Marketing Relevance for Restaurants, C-Stores & Service Delis

Restaurants

·       Lean into mix & match portable bundles for value-focused consumers.

·       Innovate hand held LTOs that can be messaged through mobile-first campaigns.

·       Use digital ordering to personalize hand held builds (protein levels, flavor add-ons, heat levels).

C-Stores

·       Expand “fresh station” formats offering warm, ready-to-eat handheld items from 6 a.m. to 11 p.m.

·       Promote “Fuel + Food” combos—which now account for 22% of C-store meal transactions.

·       Utilize cooler door digital screens for hand-held promotional velocities.

Grocery Service Delis

·       Profit from the growing evening grab-and-go market with premium handhelds.

·       Build “meal deal” constructs using wraps, stuffed rolls, flatbreads, and rotisserie handhelds.

·       Add QR-code–based re-order systems to tie deli shoppers to mobile loyalty ecosystems.

 

Four Insights From the Grocerant Guru®

1. Portability is the New Plate

Consumers are no longer eating at home, work, or restaurants—they’re eating everywhere. If it doesn’t fit in one hand, it’s already behind.

2. Fresh Food + Ease = Consumer Magnetism

Fresh, familiar, portable items outperform “innovative but unfamiliar” ones by 40% in trial and repeat. Differentiation must still feel familiar.

3. Mobile Is the New Menu Board

Consumers choose what to eat while holding their phones—brands must market in the same space where decisions are made.

4. Hand Held Meals Unlock Incremental Dayparts

Snack-time, drive-time, walk-time, work-time—these are the new dayparts. Hand held products allow brands to access revenue previously trapped between traditional meal windows.

 

Think About This: Are You Ready for Hand Held Growth?

Success leaves clues—and today’s clues point directly to the consumer’s hands. Whether your brand is a restaurant chain, C-store operator, or grocery service deli, the future belongs to portable, familiar, fresh meals delivered through digital engagement channels that meet consumers exactly where they are.

Is your brand ready to innovate? Is your marketing being consumed where your food is—in the hands of your customers?

For strategic guidance, ideation, or growth insights:
Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us
www.FoodserviceSolutions.us

Are you ready for some fresh ideations? Do your food marketing ideas look more like yesterday than tomorrow? Interested in learning how our Grocerant Guru® can edify your retail food brand while creating a platform for consumer convenient meal participation, differentiation and individualization?  Email us at: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or visit: us on our social media sites by clicking one of the following links: Facebook,  LinkedIn, or Twitter

Chain-Restaurant Discontinuity — a Grocerant Guru® Viewpoint

 

The last two years have been a reality check for big multi-unit casual and fast-food brands. Rising costs, changing customer expectations, aggressive fast-casual competitors and franchisee fragility have combined to shrink footprints that once felt invincible. Below I profile six recognizable chains that have fewer open restaurants today than they did two years ago, explain three concrete failure modes for each (menu/price, brand messaging, competition/operations), and finish with four pragmatic success tips from the Grocerant Guru®.

 

1) Subway — continued footprint contraction

Subway has been closing hundreds of U.S. locations annually; its domestic store count dropped below 20,000 as closures outpaced openings.

Three trouble examples

·       Menu / price problems: Too many SKUs and inconsistent localized pricing mean promotions don’t drive the volume needed to cover higher labor/food costs.

·       Brand messaging problems: The brand’s identity has become muddled: is Subway fast, fresh, value, or premium? Mixed signals weaken loyalty.

·       Competition / operations problems: Aggressive fast-casual sandwich chains (Jersey Mike’s, Jimmy John’s) and franchisee fatigue (older locations, higher capex to remodel) have made many suburban stores uneconomical.

 

2) Red Lobster — restructuring and a smaller chain after bankruptcy actions

Red Lobster went through bankruptcy restructuring and shut many locations before emerging — the system is materially smaller than it was two years ago.

Three trouble examples

·       Menu / price problems: High-cost core ingredient (seafood) plus promotional pricing (e.g., “endless” promotions) crushed margins.

·       Brand messaging problems: The chain oscillated between value promotions and “premium seafood” positioning, confusing guests about what to expect.

·       Competition / operations problems: Rising rent, labor and supply costs plus some legacy large dining rooms make underperforming units a target for closure.

 

3) Pizza Hut — franchisee bankruptcy and localized mass closures

Pizza Hut saw dozens of abrupt closures after major franchisee bankruptcies and sales of former franchise portfolios — several markets lost many locations in the past 18 months.

Three trouble examples

·       Menu / price problems: Frequent menu experimentation without a clear value anchor can alienate price-sensitive pizza buyers.

·       Brand messaging problems: Pizza Hut’s marketing has drifted between delivery-centered convenience, dine-in legacy, and niche product pushes (Detroit style, melts), diluting clarity.

·       Competition / operations problems: Franchisee disputes, uneven digital experience and more nimble rivals (Domino’s digital engine, Little Caesars value plays) left some franchise operators unable to compete.

 

4) Steak ’n Shake — long, steady unit contraction and operational pivoting

Steak ’n Shake has been closing or converting many units and shifting formats; the brand has several hundred fewer restaurants than in previous years.

Three trouble examples

·       Menu / price problems: An identity stuck between diner and fast-casual made it hard to set price/value expectations — margins suffered.

·       Brand messaging problems: Mixed signals about service model (full table service vs. kiosk/drive-thru conversion) confused repeat guests.

·       Competition / operations problems: Slow franchise conversion, operating cost pressures, and underinvestment in remodeled prototypes led to store closures.

 

5) IHOP — targeted closures and portfolio pruning

IHOP has also reduced locations in recent years as the brand rationalized underperforming units and pursued different development formats.

Three trouble examples

·       Menu / price problems: Pressure to deliver breakfast value while food/labor costs rise makes margin management difficult for legacy breakfast operators.

·       Brand messaging problems: Efforts to be “breakfast champion” while also competing off-peak (lunch/dinner) can muddy core messaging.

·       Competition / operations problems: Fast-casual breakfast concepts and delivery aggregators siphon off core occasions; some older IHOPs require capex to modernize.

 

6) Applebee’s (Dine Brands) — net unit losses during portfolio optimization

Dine Brands (Applebee’s and IHOP) has reported net fewer Applebee’s units as it rationalizes underperforming stores — dozens of Applebee’s closed in the last two years as part of development strategy.

Three trouble examples

·       Menu / price problems: Applebee’s faces a squeeze between value diners (want cheap bundles) and rising food/labor costs; promotions often erode check averages.

·       Brand messaging problems: The legacy “neighborhood grill” feel competes with need to look modern — inconsistent remodel rollout undermines a coherent national image.

·       Competition / operations problems: Mature markets, lease expirations and franchisee decisions to exit poor locations have increased net closures; Dine Brands is experimenting with co-located IHOP/Applebee’s models to cut costs.

 

Four Grocerant Guru success tips — how to stop (or slow) the bleed

1.       Pick one positioning and commit — don’t chase every occasion. Choose the primary occasion that drives traffic (e.g., quick, affordable weekday dinner vs. weekend dine-in) and align menu, pricing and marketing to that single story. Mixed messages confuse guests and franchisees.

2.       Simplify the menu; increase velocity SKUs — fewer, higher-margin, easy-execute items reduce labor burden, speed service and improve consistency. Use a tight core + rotating limited items to keep interest without operational complexity.

3.       Fix unit economics (lease & labor focus) before growth — rigorously evaluate each store’s true contribution margin (rent, local labor, marketing share). Close or remodel low-return units; funnel capital to prototypes that prove ROI quickly.

4.       Operationally modernize the franchise system — invest in digital ordering and fulfillment standards, a clear franchisee support playbook, and consistent remodel plan. Where possible, experiment with dual-brand or shared-back-of-house concepts to lower capex and operating cost per square foot.

 

Final note from the Grocerant Guru®

Footprint contraction is messy and emotional — teams, suppliers and neighborhoods feel it. But contraction can also be strategic: the brands that stabilize fastest are those that stop treating unit count like vanity and start treating unit economics and brand clarity like survival metrics. If you want, I’ll convert this into a 700-word magazine feature with pull quotes and a data sidebar showing year-over-year unit counts (I can source the latest counts and add a small chart). Which format do you prefer?

Success Leaves Clues—Are You Ready to Find Yours?

One key insight that continues to drive success is this: "The consumer is dynamic, not static." This principle is the foundation of our work at Foodservice Solutions®, where Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, has been helping brands stay relevant in an ever-evolving market.

Want to strengthen your brand’s connection with today’s consumers? Let’s talk. Call 253-759-7869 for more information.

Stay Ahead of the Competition with Fresh Ideas

Is your food marketing keeping up with tomorrow’s trends—or stuck in yesterday’s playbook? If you're ready for fresh ideations that set your brand apart, we’re here to help.

At Foodservice Solutions®, we specialize in consumer-driven retail food strategies that enhance convenience, differentiation, and individualization—key factors in driving growth.

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