Plant-Based Food Finding New Menu Space

 

From the hearths of ancient civilizations to the touchscreens of modern meal apps, plant-based foods have woven their way through history with resilience and renewed relevance. Today, the menu evolution toward more plant-based options is more than a passing phase—it's a calculated response to a new era of consumer demands centered around health, sustainability, and food discovery.

A Historical Taste of Plants

Throughout history, civilizations from the Mediterranean to Southeast Asia thrived on predominantly plant-based diets. For the majority of the global population, meat was a rarity; plants were the daily nourishment. With the rise of industrial farming in the 20th century, animal-based foods flooded menus, pushing plant-centric meals to the sidelines. But now, consumer migration is turning the tables.

The Grocerant Guru® Perspective: Plant-Based as the New Meal Component King

In the grocerant niche—where grocery stores, restaurants, and c-stores blur lines to sell Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat fresh prepared food—plant-based meals are thriving. The Grocerant Guru® sees them not as replacements, but as essential components in meal bundling, flavor discovery, and consumer customization.

Here's why that matters: today’s consumers want food that is fast, fresh, portable, and personalized. Plant-based options check every box. They're easy to package, travel well, and offer health and environmental halos that resonate across generations, from Gen Z to Boomers.

Mix-and-match meals with a plant-based protein, a grain, a bold sauce, and a fresh veggie side are becoming the go-to dinner solution. Restaurants and retailers that build plant-based meal kits or takeout bundles are empowering consumers with choice while increasing check averages.

Benefits on the Plate and Beyond

1. Healthier Choices:
High in fiber, vitamins, and antioxidants, plant-based meals support heart health, weight management, and immune function.

2. Environmental Impact:
Plant-based production uses fewer resources, cuts emissions, and aligns with sustainability goals embraced by both consumers and corporations.

3. Inclusive Menus:
A diverse menu with plant-based options welcomes vegans, vegetarians, and flexitarians while avoiding allergens like dairy and eggs.

4. Superior for Takeout:
These meals often reheat better, hold flavor longer, and maintain appealing textures—key for growing delivery and curbside sectors.

5. Culinary Creativity:
Chefs and product developers are reimagining global classics—from Ethiopian lentil stews to Korean BBQ mushrooms—inviting food exploration.

 

Top Five Reasons Consumers Buy Plant-Based Foods

According to the Grocerant Guru®, these are the core motivators behind the plant-based surge:

1.       Health & Wellness:
Consumers are seeking foods that promote longevity, weight management, and disease prevention.

2.       Environmental Concerns:
Climate change awareness has consumers choosing meals with lower environmental footprints.

3.       Animal Welfare:
Ethical concerns around factory farming are pushing shoppers toward cruelty-free options.

4.       Food Discovery & Flavor Innovation:
Plant-based meals often incorporate bold, global flavors that introduce consumers to new cuisines.

5.       Digestive Comfort & Allergies:
Many plant-based items are naturally dairy- and gluten-free, making them ideal for sensitive eaters.

 

Final Serving

From ancient grains to modern meatless tacos, plant-based food is not only finding new menu space, it’s redefining what’s for dinner. For restaurants, convenience stores, and grocers alike, the opportunity is to bundle these meals, market their benefits, and tap into the consumer desire for food that feels good, tastes bold, and travels well.

As the Grocerant Guru® always says, "Consumers are not abandoning meat—they're embracing variety. Plant-based meals aren't just an alternative; they're the answer to 'What's for dinner?' at 4 PM."

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Chipotle Price Pressure: A Look In Too Consumer Migration in 2025

 

Chipotle Mexican Grill once defined the fast-casual revolution, bringing bold flavors, premium proteins, and customization to the mainstream. According to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions® that was yesterday, today the world is evolving. But as economic uncertainty tightens consumer budgets in 2025, even Chipotle’s loyal fans are reconsidering their meal choices. Why? It starts with price—and ends with competition.

📈 A Historical Look at Chipotle’s Price Increases and Sales Volumes

From 2014 to 2024, Chipotle’s average per-person check rose from $7.25 to $9.35, an increase of nearly 29% over a decade.

·       2020: Average menu price hovered around $8.10, with digital orders surging due to the pandemic.

·       2022: Prices rose over 10% year-over-year to cover labor and commodity cost increases.

·       2024: A nationwide 2% price hike was implemented in Q4, pushing the average entrée price to $9.35–$10.25 depending on customization.

At the same time, Chipotle’s average unit volumes (AUV) tell another story of success meeting resistance:

·       2019: $2.2 million per store

·       2022: $2.8 million per store

·       2024: $2.9 million (slight Q3 softening in traffic volume reported)

·       2025 Forecast: Flat to low single-digit growth due to check growth, not traffic

🥑 Food Fact: A burrito with guac now costs more than $11 in most U.S. cities—up from $7.95 in 2015.

💸 Why Consumers Are Trading Down from Chipotle

In today’s uncertain economy—characterized by rising interest rates, stagnant wages, and grocery price inflation—price perception is paramount.

According to the USDA, restaurant prices increased 30% between 2019–2024, compared to 27% for groceries. That cost gap is driving some customers back to home cooking, but others are seeking value from alternative foodservice providers.

Key reasons for customer migration:

·       Guac and protein premiums add $2.50+ to a base price.

·       No budget combo options—Chipotle doesn't offer a bundled meal deal under $10.

·       Customization comes with cost—each topping or change drives up ticket price.

·       Portion size inconsistency, despite CEO promises of “bigger scoops.”

·       Perceived value erosion when compared to meals under $6.

 

🥡 5 Lower-Priced Competitors Consumers Are Choosing Instead

Here are five brands offering meals under $8 that are capturing value-seeking Chipotle defectors:

1. Taco Bell

·       Average meal price: $5.99

·       Key draw: $5 Cravings Box (entree + side + drink)

·       Food fact: 22% of Gen Z diners name Taco Bell their favorite for “cheap, fast, flavorful meals.”

2. Panda Express

·       Average meal price: $7.25

·       Combo meal: 1 entrée + 1 side = $6.90–$7.50

·       Food fact: Orange Chicken remains the top-selling single Asian fast food item in the U.S.

3. QDOBA Mexican Eats

·       Average meal price: $8.25

·       Key difference: Guac and queso are included at no extra charge

·       Food fact: In blind taste tests, QDOBA’s burritos rank equal or higher than Chipotle’s in flavor.

4. MOD Pizza

·       Average personal pizza price: $7.95

·       Key appeal: Unlimited toppings at flat price

·       Food fact: MOD offers over 30 toppings with no surcharge, appealing to customization lovers.

5. El Pollo Loco

·       Average meal price: $7.50

·       Popular option: 3-piece chicken combo with tortillas and side for $7.49

·       Food fact: Known for flame-grilled chicken and healthy sides like broccoli or avocado salad.

 

🔍 Think About This: At the Crossroads of Cost and Customization

Chipotle’s long-time edge—premium food with fast casual convenience—is now blunted by rising prices and intensifying competition. As food inflation and economic unease persist into 2025, consumers are evaluating not just what tastes good, but what feels worth it.

Foodservice Insight: Brands like Taco Bell and Panda Express are winning on bundled value, while QDOBA and MOD are proving that “customization” doesn’t have to come with a premium.

To maintain relevance, Chipotle must evolve with consumer expectations. That may mean reintroducing value-based bundles, testing limited-time offers, or reconsidering upcharges for once-standard toppings.

The battle isn’t over the burrito—it’s over the budget. And right now, value is winning.

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Restaurant Leaders Confront the Future: Why Reinvention, Not Nostalgia, Will Define the Next Era of Dining

 

As chain restaurant executives gather in Chicago, the stakes have never been higher. Traditional strategies rooted in brand protectionism are crumbling under the weight of rising costs, labor shortages, and fierce competition from non-traditional food outlets. According to Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru® at Foodservice Solutions®, the path to survival is not resistance but reinvention. In an increasingly consumer-driven, convenience-first economy, success will favor those who extend their brands beyond the dining room, embrace technology, and meet customers where they live, work, and shop. The future of foodservice belongs to those willing to break old molds—and build a new, broader definition of what it means to be a restaurant.

 

Understanding the Shifting Landscape of the Food Industry

As restaurant chain executives gather in Chicago, they do so under a cloud of urgent uncertainty. They stand at a critical inflection point: either recalibrate their strategies to meet today’s consumer realities or risk falling behind in a marketplace that is changing faster than ever before.

The food industry is undergoing seismic shifts, fueled by evolving consumer behaviors, economic pressures, and the accelerated rise of non-traditional food distribution channels. Historically, restaurants clung to brand protectionism—leaning on the comfort of familiarity and consistency. But today, the competitive battleground has expanded well beyond the traditional four walls of a restaurant.

Grocery stores, convenience stores, dollar stores, and even drugstores have stepped aggressively into the fresh prepared foods space, competing not just on price, but also on quality and convenience. The battle is no longer restaurant vs. restaurant—it's a broader fight for share of stomach.

Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru® at Foodservice Solutions®, has long foreseen this shift. "Consumers are voting with their wallets—and increasingly with their time," Johnson notes. "They are looking for frictionless experiences that combine value, quality, and convenience. Restaurants that fail to adapt to these evolving expectations risk irrelevance."

 

Key Challenges Facing the Industry

Today's restaurant operator is navigating a perfect storm of pressures. Their concerns are real, their frustrations understandable.

1. Labor Shortages
Hiring and retaining staff has become one of the industry's greatest pain points. Operators face wage inflation, worker burnout, and a labor force attracted to more flexible gig economy roles. Many restaurateurs feel trapped—unable to provide both the wages employees demand and the affordability consumers expect.

2. Escalating Packaging Costs
Supply chain disruptions, coupled with rising consumer demands for sustainable solutions, have made packaging more expensive and complicated. Operators are caught between wanting to "do the right thing" for the planet and maintaining margins that are already razor thin.

3. Soaring Utility Expenses
Skyrocketing energy costs are squeezing restaurant P&Ls. The fixed costs of operating a dining room—especially in older, energy-inefficient buildings—are making it harder to stay profitable.

4. Declining Consumer Sentiment
With economic headwinds buffeting household budgets, many consumers are opting for grocery-prepared meals, frozen entrees, and meal kits over a night out. Restaurants are no longer just competing with one another—they're competing with every shelf in the grocery store.

5. Rise of Non-Traditional Competitors
Fresh meals at dollar stores. Sushi at gas stations. Rotisserie chickens from grocery chains. Consumers now see excellent alternatives to dining out at nearly every retail corner.

As Johnson puts it, "Today’s competitor isn’t just the burger joint down the street. It's the convenience store offering a hot, affordable meal with no wait time. It's the grocery deli with fresh, ready-to-serve family meals."

 

A Leadership Response: The Grocerant Guru’s Vision for the Future

Despite the daunting challenges, there is a path forward. Johnson offers an encouraging reminder:

"The restaurant industry has always been resilient. But resilience now demands reinvention, not resistance."

According to Johnson, success will favor those leaders who demonstrate agility, empathy for evolving customer needs, and courage to embrace a broader food ecosystem.

Today's successful operator must extend their brand beyond the dining room—becoming part of a consumer's daily food journey rather than demanding that consumers come to them.

 

Five Reasons for Optimism

1. Consumers Still Crave Freshness and Connection
Even in an era of convenience, the human desire for high-quality, freshly prepared food remains strong. Restaurants that evolve their service models—offering meal kits, portable family meals, or restaurant-quality grab-and-go options—can meet customers where they are, without losing their culinary identity.

2. Technology and Automation Offer Relief
AI-driven ordering, robotics in food prep, and predictive analytics are no longer future trends—they’re current tools helping restaurants streamline operations, manage labor costs, and personalize guest experiences.

3. Multi-Channel Distribution Unlocks Growth
Forward-thinking restaurant brands are exploring partnerships with grocery stores, meal kit companies, and even airport and hotel operators. Extending the brand beyond traditional real estate opens up exciting revenue streams.

4. Sustainable and Ethical Practices Create Loyalty
Today’s consumers want brands that align with their values. Restaurants that embrace eco-friendly packaging, transparent sourcing, and menu personalization can win not just one-time transactions, but lasting relationships.

5. Innovation Remains the Industry's Lifeblood
From virtual brands and ghost kitchens to loyalty-driven subscription models, operators are finding new ways to delight customers. The innovators—those willing to rethink old paradigms—will define the industry's next golden age.

 

Walking the Hard Road Together

Empathy must guide industry leadership now. Many operators feel exhausted and stretched thin, not resistant to change but overwhelmed by it. The path forward isn’t about abandoning tradition—it’s about building new traditions rooted in today's consumer lifestyles.

As Johnson wisely observes:

"The future of food is not confined to a dining room. It’s not limited to a menu board. It’s an ecosystem. Restaurants that thrive will understand they’re not just selling a meal—they’re meeting a moment, fulfilling a need, becoming part of everyday life."

The gathering in Chicago isn’t just a conference—it’s a call to action. Operators who lead with empathy, agility, and vision will not just survive—they will redefine what success looks like in the new food economy.

Success Leaves Clues—Are You Ready to Find Yours?

One key insight that continues to drive success is this: "The consumer is dynamic, not static." This principle is the foundation of our work at Foodservice Solutions®, where Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, has been helping brands stay relevant in an ever-evolving market.

Want to strengthen your brand’s connection with today’s consumers? Let’s talk. Call 253-759-7869 for more information.

Stay Ahead of the Competition with Fresh Ideas

Is your food marketing keeping up with tomorrow’s trends—or stuck in yesterday’s playbook? If you're ready for fresh ideations that set your brand apart, we’re here to help.

At Foodservice Solutions®, we specialize in consumer-driven retail food strategies that enhance convenience, differentiation, and individualization—key factors in driving growth.

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