Convenience
tops the list when it comes to the age-old question, What’s for Dinner. Year after
year study after study finds customer migration from cooking from scratch too
mix and match meal component bunding according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.
1.
84.9 percent of meals eaten at home at
a least one Ready-2-Eat or Heat-N-Eat meal component.
2. 82% of shoppers say
convenience is extremely or very important to them;
3. for Millennials, this
number rises to 87%,
4. while for Boomers+, it is
only 77%.
That
said, according to the 2023
Supermarket News Fresh Food Trends Survey, 65% of respondents said they
will increase their assortment of prepared foods over the next 12 months. Here
is what they said:
“With
schedules zooming around like crazy, families continue to take advantage of
premade meals sold at grocery stores. The trend is not losing any gas, and
grocery stores are capitalizing.
According
to the 2023 Supermarket News Fresh
Food Trends Survey, 65% of respondents said they will increase their
assortment of prepared foods over the next 12 months. Additionally, when asked
how much space they plan to devote to each perimeter department in the coming year,
46% said they plan to commit more space to prepared foods.
“The
demand for fast meal solutions is very high,” said Jennifer
Bartashus, senior analyst, Retail Staples and Packaged Food, for Bloomberg
Intelligence. “So, we see sustained demand for prepared foods going forward
because they help meet that need for convenience, but also help satisfy the
feeling like you are actually preparing something.
Perimeter
power
The
past 12 months were tougher for food retailers than the previous year, with nearly
one in five reporting a decrease in sales for perimeter categories
(compared with only 4% reporting a decrease in the prior year). However,
operators are just as optimistic going into next year as they were during last
year’s survey (65% expecting increases over the next 12 months, compared with
66% in the prior year’s survey).
Fresh
sales continue to be a driver for most supermarkets, with 60% of survey
respondents saying perimeter sales increased over the last 12 months (just 22%
said they remained the same vs. 2022.)
However,
that figure is down overall from last year’s survey, where some 70% of
respondents reported higher sales from the perimeter in 2022. While last year’s
survey indicated that flat sales were the common outcome for retailers unable
to grow revenues, this year’s responses showed more risk for the downside case.
Notably,
18% of respondents who indicated there was a decrease in perimeter sales in the
past year represented a significant rise from the 4% of people who said the
same thing in the prior year’s survey.
Respondents
were also about as likely to say in 2023 as they were in 2022 that
perimeter-category sales were holding steady: 22% said so in the most recent
survey, compared with 26% a year earlier.
Among
the respondents who grew perimeter-category sales in the past year, nearly
three-in-10 people said those increases fell in a range between 7% and 9%.
Another four-in-10 respondents reported sales increases in neighboring ranges
of either 4% to 6% or, on the upside, 10% to 12%. Collectively, that means
approximately two-thirds of reported sales increases ranged from
mid-single-digit to low-double-digit percentages.
When
asked what respondents saw as the biggest factor behind the change in sales
this year, the feedback varied:
“Guests
feel safer shopping for ready meals and lunch items out of our deli, market,
produce, bakery and butcher block, rather than spending high prices at
fast-food locations and restaurants. I feel guests have learned to shop at
grocery stores more than eating out, and since the pandemic have learned to
cook at home and eat together as a family.”
“Products
that provided [the] most increases were enhanced, with more items being offered
in those products. Special sales, BOGO, specific days of week slower-moving
products were offered as ’limited specials’ for those days, such as Sunday,
Monday and Tuesday.”
“Additional
government assistance during the pandemic has been reduced. When budget
watching wasn’t an issue, customers spent more with less concern about cost.
Then as prices increased and additional funding decreased, so did sales trends.
Now customers are back to watching their budget and are more fearful of not
getting by, therefore spending less because they have less to spend.”
“Many
of our urban-based customers have had their allowable benefits lessened, and
inflation has impacted the quantity of items purchased.”
Most
respondents who expect sales increases along their perimeters in the coming
year are projecting mid-single-digit to low-double-digit percentage gains,
similar to performance in the past 12 months. Among the few respondents who
think perimeter sales would likely fall this year, most foresee only small
decreases of 1% to 3%.
Respondents
had this to say about what they thought would be the biggest factor behind a
change in sales in the year ahead:
·
“Continued
shift of consumer taste towards fresh, less-processed food items.”
·
“Focusing
in on smarter purchasing and adjusting retails to be more competitive.”
·
“Customers
will begin to spend more as they become more comfortable, or used to, current
market trends.”
Bloomberg
Intelligence’s Jennifer Bartashus also sees strength in the next year when
it comes to perimeter sales, and one of the reasons is because those sales
remain key to a grocer’s overall strategy.
“We’ve
seen retailers like Kroger and Albertsons and others emphasize their strategies
around the fresh parts of the store … that it is a genuine traffic driver to
bring customers in more consistently.
“There’s
been a shift in consumer behavior where people are tending to favor those fresh
categories, so the demand in perimeter is going to remain strong,” she added.
“The
fresh perimeter continues to be a growth area for independent grocers,” said
Laura Strange, SVP of communications and external affairs for the National
Grocers Association. “Demand for healthier, fresh and less processed foods is
driving sales of produce and fresh proteins, which independent retailers often
procure through their relationships with local suppliers.”
In
addition to the 65% of respondents who said they plan to grow their prepared
foods assortment, respondents said they also plan on increasing the
assortment of produce (50%), deli (45%), bakery (40%), meat/seafood (37%),
cheese (33%) and floral (29%) in 2023.
Dairy
(69%) is not expected to experience any change in terms of how it is assorted
around the perimeter, and grocers also are not making meat/seafood a priority.
In fact, 12% said the category will experience a decline when it comes to
assortment.
Do you want to Build a
Larger Share of Stomach?
Think Convenience
Fresh Foods Mix & Match
Meal Components
In
terms of perimeter space, 48% of respondents said they increased the amount
devoted to prepared foods in 2022, and that number was down slightly (46%) in
2023. Grocers also expanded space for their produce sections (34% plan to
increase), as well as bakery (23%) and deli (23%) this year. When it comes to
meat/seafood, 78% of respondents say they plan to keep their offerings the
same, with similar projections for cheese (79%) and dairy (79%). Floral is the
one department where respondents plan to decrease space (12%) over the next
year.
Deli/prepared
foods (30%), produce (30%) and meat (24%) were considered by survey responders
as their “signature departments.”
When
asked what their customers likely valued most when they shopped along the perimeter,
38% of respondents said quality and freshness, significantly ahead of the
runner-up choices, cost (22%) and convenience (15%).
Online
ordering
To
meet customers’ needs for convenience, nearly two-thirds of all respondents
offered some sort of digital-ordering solution. Nearly half (48%) said their
operation offers online ordering and curbside pickup. Among those offering
grocery delivery, 37% fulfilled their orders with third parties like DoorDash
or Shipt, while 23% managed their own online ordering and delivery services.
It’s
marginalized
With
inflation kicking into high gear in 2022, sales margins took a heavy hit.
Across all eight perimeter categories in this study (prepared foods, produce,
deli, floral, bakery, cheese, meat/seafood, dairy), fewer respondents reported
sales margin expansion than they did in last year’s survey.
One
in three survey respondents (34%) said that margins shrank for meat and
seafood, followed closely by 30% who said the same for dairy. Margins had
performed much better in 2022’s survey, when between 40% and 50% of respondents
had indicated sales margin growth for each category.
In
2023’s study, only prepared foods came close to that level, with 38% of
respondents noting an increase in margins and another 40% saying margins had
held steady. By comparison, nearly half (49%) of respondents had expanded their
profit margins for prepared foods in the prior-year survey. That 11% drop was
the smallest year-over-year decrease, followed by an 18% year-over-year
decrease for bakery (44% of operators noting an increase in 2022’s study versus
26% this year) and a 19% decline for cheese (43% in 2022 versus 24% this year.)
Retailers
had more control over prepared food margins. There, 78% of respondents said the
margins either increased (38%) or remained the same (40%) with only 22% noting
a decrease in margins. The year prior was just a tad better in prepared foods,
with 49% marking an increase in margins. Bakery (44% increase in 2021 vs. 26%
in 2022) and cheese (43% vs. 24%) were the next two in line in terms of
moderate loss in margins between 2021 and 2022.
Food
cost inflation was another challenge for retailers (14%), while others saw
challenges via competition from other retailers (11%), retaining employees
(10%) and labor cost inflation (10%).
Supermarket
leaders saw larger brick and mortar grocers as their biggest source of
competition in this year’s survey. Big-box retailers like Walmart and Target
were worrisome for 47% of respondents, followed by club stores (42%).
Over
one in five (22%) of respondents listed online retailers as a competitive
threat for perimeter sales, just ahead of the 16% who said they saw convenience
stores and natural/organic stores as a threat, followed by 15% who were
concerned about dollar stores moving in on grocery.
Some
71% of respondents said they saw “price” as the advantage their competitors
have, a 20% increase compared to last year. Convenience (37%) and location
(23%) also were noted as competitive edges.
Turning
to competition specifically for prepared food and prepared beverages,
fast-casual restaurants (cited by 41% of respondents), quick-service restaurants
(35%), club stores (31%), and more cooking at home (31%) were the biggest
threats. Respondents also indicated price (46%) was the top advantage the comp
set had over supermarkets, along with convenience (45%). Location came in next
with 22% of respondents choosing it.
Sixty-one
percent of respondents said they offer grab-and-go cases for prepared food and
prepared beverage offerings — a 16% drop from a year ago. Slightly more than
half (52%) of operators offer a deli, which is a 25% drop from 2022. A
self-service hot bar/soup station (31%) and self-service cold bar/salad bar
(30%) were other top prepared offerings. In addition, 24% said they have a
full-service coffee shop and another 19% said their store comes with a
self-service coffee bar/beverage dispensers.
When
asked which prepared food and beverage offerings or stations they might add in
the coming year, nearly half (46%) of respondents said they would not add any
in the coming months. This was actually an improvement from the 57% of
respondents who chose “none of the above” to the same question a year earlier.
Grab-and-go cold cases (identified by 26% of respondents) and a deli counter
(18%) were the top two potential additions among people who took this year’s
survey.
So,
what have grocers been doing to put their best foot forward against rivals?
Promotions and specials (cited by 50% of respondents) and grab-and-go offerings
(46%) are two of the most powerful in the arsenal. Loyalty or frequent-buyer
promotions (36%), more space for prepared food and beverages (28%), cleaner
ingredient lists (26%), specialty selections like gluten-free and organic
(21%), globally inspired recipes (21%), home delivery (21%), and
click-and-collect, order ahead capabilities (20%) rounded out the
options.
“I
think supermarkets … they have a great pulse on what consumers are buying
across the rest of the store,” remarked Bartashus. “Big-box retailers are
great, but I think supermarkets have a good sense of, ’are people trending
towards certain flavor profiles or certain types of cuisine that they can
detect through their POS data?’”
If
supermarkets are going to be more in tune with customers, it will not be
because more workers are canvassing the floor. Labor continues to be a
challenge. When managers were asked which service-focused employees they
employ, all eight categories were down compared to 2022. Fresh deli staff (51%)
and meat butchers (44%) are still out there serving the customer, but the
presence is light for seafood expert/fishmonger (27%), produce butcher (26%),
trained chef (25%), scratch baker (23%), floral (22%), and cheesemonger (20%).
Attracting
and retaining qualified employees continues to be the top challenge of the
perimeter, noted by 32%—the same percent as last year.
Overall,
the fresh perimeter area for grocers continues to produce solid sales, and
managers are capitalizing on the trend of grab-and-go meals. Labor, however,
continues to be a troubling point and respondents said they have reduced the
number of dedicated employees in certain areas of the perimeter.
Respondents
perceive their competition coming from big-box stores, with those surveyed
saying they’re trying a number of tactics to compete and grab more shoppers.
Price is still a sticking point, as is convenience.”
Invite Foodservice Solutions® to complete a
Grocerant ScoreCard, or for product positioning or placement assistance, or
call our Grocerant Guru®. Since 1991 Foodservice
Solutions® of
Tacoma, WA has been the global leader in the Grocerant niche. Contact: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or
253-759-7869
