The Quiet Shift Reshaping the Restaurant Industry

 

The dining world is undergoing a silent but powerful transformation. Fresh-prepared, grab-and-go, mix-and-match, and ready-to-heat food from grocery, convenience, and drug-store channels is eroding the once-secure restaurant mealtime monopoly according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA Based Foodservice Solutions®.

Welcome to the Grocerant Era, where non-traditional food retailers—from Buc-ee’s to Whole Foods, to Wawa and Everytable, are rewriting how, where, and why America eats.

This is more than a post-pandemic ripple; it’s a consumer migration built on value, portability, and personalization—three pillars that define today’s foodservice success according to Johnson.

 

From Home-Meal-Replacement to Grocerant Powerhouse

The roots of this shift trace back to the 1980s “Home Meal Replacement” (HMR) craze, when grocery and convenience stores flirted with restaurant-style take-home meals. The concept fizzled, until Phil Romano’s Eatzi’s turned the idea into an interactive, chef-driven retail experience that generated $17 million a year at its original Dallas location.

Eatzi’s success planted the seed. Fast forward: Eataly now does close to $60 million per location, proof that today’s consumers crave retail environments that blend restaurant theatre, authenticity, and portability.

What once was a grocery experiment is now a global category: the Grocerant Niche—fresh, portable, restaurant-quality meals sold outside traditional restaurant walls.

 

2025 Undercurrents Threatening Restaurant Growth

According to data from Foodservice Solutions® and Retail Wit’s 2025 Food Trends Report:

1.       Share of Stomach Erosion — Grocers, c-stores, and drugstores now capture more than 38% of weekday meal occasions, up 6 points since 2020.

2.       Mix-and-Match Meals — 62% of consumers prefer flexible meal component bundling vs. fixed entrées.

3.       Personalization — 71% say they want control over ingredients, portion size, or prep method.

4.       Portability — “Meals that move” are up 14% YOY in unit growth.

5.       Health & Sustainability — “Better-for-you” fresh meals grew twice as fast as indulgent categories in 2024.

6.       Technology & Access — 43% of all take-out transactions now originate through retail or hybrid digital channels.

7.       Value & Dynamic Pricing — Meal deals and component bundling are reshaping what “value” means in foodservice.

Translation: Consumers still want restaurant quality, but they now expect retail convenience.

 

Why Restaurants Should Worry

·       Traffic Erosion: 25% of restaurant consumers now alternate between grocerant and restaurant meals weekly.

·       Margin Compression: Retailers cross-subsidize prepared foods with grocery profits, making it hard for restaurants to compete on price.

·       Experience Gap: Many grocerants now feature open kitchens, local chef collaborations, and café seating—replicating restaurant ambience.

·       Day-Part Fragmentation: “Snack-meals” and off-peak dining times are cannibalizing traditional dinner-hour traffic.

As the Grocerant Guru® notes, “Every meal sold from a refrigerator case is one less seat filled at a restaurant table.”

 

10 Case Studies: Who’s Winning (and Losing) the Grocerant Battle

Restaurants That Adapted and Thrived

1. Panera Bread – “Panera at Home” & Rapid Pick-Up
Panera leaned into retail grocery partnerships for soups and dressings while doubling down on curbside, app-based pickup. The blend of grocery brand recognition and digital access keeps Panera relevant in both retail and restaurant spaces.

2. Chipotle – Digital Make-Line & Chipotlane Drive-Thrus
By investing heavily in digital throughput and customization tech, Chipotle retained its “fresh-to-order” advantage. It is effectively a grocerant-within-a-restaurant.

3. Chick-fil-A – Meal Kits and Family Bundles
Testing “Chick-fil-A Meal Kits” in select markets, the chain captured consumers who wanted restaurant flavor at home. Bundled meal pricing grew check averages while protecting the brand’s convenience halo.

4. Sweetgreen – Infinite Kitchen Automation
Sweetgreen’s high-efficiency automated kitchen model allows for grocery-style consistency with restaurant-level freshness. It’s a bridge between grab-and-go and dine-in experience.

5. Pret A Manger – Subscription & Retail Pivot
Pret’s “Coffee Subscription” and grocery partnerships for sandwiches and snacks widened its revenue base. Portability + predictability = resilience.

 

Restaurants That Struggled or Stagnated

1. Red Robin – Late to off-premises.
By the time Red Robin ramped take-out and digital, grocerants and QSRs had already seized the portability market.

2. Ruby Tuesday – Lost positioning.
Its once-strong salad bar appeal was eclipsed by grocery fresh bars offering similar variety for less.

3. Boston Market – The pioneer eclipsed.
Once the HMR hero, Boston Market failed to evolve beyond rotisserie chicken and meal combos, losing relevance to customizable grocerant options.

4. IHOP – Struggled with portability.
Breakfast-all-day is hot—but handheld, portable breakfast from c-stores and McDonald’s captured that audience first.

5. Applebee’s – Legacy dine-in.
Despite solid brand awareness, Applebee’s under-invested in portability, retail partnerships, and heat-and-eat extensions, limiting relevance with younger, on-the-go diners.

 

Case in Point: Non-Traditional Competitors Gaining Ground

·       Wawa now defines itself as “Fresh First. Built-to-Order. Ready-to-Go.” Annual food sales exceed $2.4 billion.

·       Sheetz calls itself “a restaurant that sells gas,” with over 60% of revenue from foodservice.

·       Rutter’s and Casey’s General Store are expanding Made-to-Order menus rivaling QSRs.

·       Whole Foods 365, Kroger Fresh Fare, and Albertsons Market Street use mix-and-match meal bundling that mirrors restaurant menu pricing—but with grocery convenience.

·       Walgreens / Duane Reade and even Dollar General have added refrigerated grab-and-go meals, soups, and wraps in test markets.

The result: The consumer doesn’t distinguish between restaurant or retail—they just see “dinner.”

 

Grocerant Guru® Insights for Operators

1.       Price + Quality + Social + Portability = Value
The winning formula isn’t just taste—it’s time, convenience, and perceived fairness.

2.       Meal Components Drive the Mix
Consumers want to curate their dinner from parts: entrée + side + beverage + indulgent mini-item.

3.       Transparency Builds Trust
Ingredient sourcing, packaging clarity, and freshness visibility elevate retail food credibility.

4.       Technology and Data Matter
Personalization through apps, loyalty data, and dynamic pricing keeps customers in your ecosystem.

 

Think About This: Food Retail Never Steps Back

When the clock hits 4 p.m. and consumers ask, “What’s for dinner?”—the answer could come from a restaurant, a grocery deli, or the corner gas station.

Food retailing is omnichannel, dynamic, and consumer centric. Restaurants that fail to see grocerants as direct competitors risk losing share faster than they can redesign menus.

The message is clear: Restaurants must evolve beyond four walls—or risk being out-bundled, out-convenienced, and out-valued.

Steven Johnson is the Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma-based Foodservice Solutions®, the global leader in Grocerant Niche growth strategy since 1991. For more insights, follow The Grocerant Guru® visit: us on our social media sites by clicking one of the following links: Facebook,  LinkedIn, or Twitter