Pizza’s Next Battle: Scale, Sales, Customer Frequency and the Toppings Consumers Crave

 

When you’re hungry for pizza, what makes you choose one over another—and what makes you come back? Is it the toppings you crave, the quality you can taste, the price that fits your budget, or the convenience of getting dinner on the table without another hassle?

Smithfield Culinary’s new research suggests consumers have strong opinions: 46% say toppings matter most, and 79% have gone out of their way to try a particular pizza. That tells the pizza business something important: consumers aren’t just buying a pie; they’re choosing an experience they believe is worth their money, time and appetite.

For national chains, neighborhood pizzerias, grocery delis and convenience stores alike, the challenge is clear: What makes your pizza the one consumers want tonight—and the one they choose again tomorrow?

From the perspective of the Grocerant Guru®, pizza's next chapter will be shaped by the intersection of brand scale, average unit volume, customer frequency, ingredient quality, convenience, portability and perceived value. Operators that connect those elements to evolving consumer expectations will be better positioned to capture the next meal occasion.

1. The Seven Pizza Chains: Size, Sales and Average Unit Volume

Understanding the competitive landscape requires looking at more than the number of locations. Systemwide sales indicate total sales generated across a chain's restaurant network, while average unit volume (AUV) measures average annual sales per location. Neither figure, on its own, reveals profitability or customer loyalty.

Industry reporting from the 2026 QSR 50 and PMQ's 2025 Pizza Power Report provides a basis for comparing major U.S. pizza chains. The figures below reflect different reporting sources and dates, so they should be treated as an industry snapshot rather than a perfectly standardized ranking.

Seven major pizza chains

1. Domino's

·       Reported U.S. systemwide sales: $9.953 billion.

·       Reported average unit volume: $1.385 million.

·       Reported U.S. locations: 7,186.

Domino's leads this group in reported U.S. sales and AUV. Its combination of digital ordering, delivery, carryout and national brand recognition supports a high-volume operating model. The challenge is to keep translating convenience and familiarity into repeat orders as consumers face changing budgets and more prepared-food choices.

2. Pizza Hut

·       Reported U.S. systemwide sales: $5.094 billion.

·       Reported average unit volume: $808,000.

·       Reported U.S. locations: 6,307.

Pizza Hut retains a substantial national footprint. However, reported unit declines and lower AUV than Domino's make restaurant productivity and the performance of existing locations important issues. A large footprint is an advantage only when locations continue to meet consumer expectations and generate sustainable sales.

3. Little Caesars

·       Estimated U.S. systemwide sales: approximately $3.700 billion.

·       Estimated average unit volume: approximately $950,000.

·       Reported U.S. locations: 4,374.

Little Caesars competes through affordability, convenience and a recognizable value proposition. Its larger location count relative to Papa John's demonstrates that a chain can build scale around a different combination of price, service and customer expectations.

4. Papa John's

·       Estimated U.S. systemwide sales: approximately $3.702 billion.

·       Estimated average unit volume: approximately $1.124 million.

·       Reported U.S. locations: 3,294.

Papa John's has fewer reported locations than Little Caesars but higher estimated AUV. That distinction illustrates why unit count alone is not an adequate measure of competitive strength. Sales productivity, average order value, operating costs and customer frequency all matter.

The reported sales estimates for Papa John's and Little Caesars are nearly identical, so the small difference should not be interpreted as a meaningful competitive gap.

5. Marco's Pizza

·       Reported U.S. systemwide sales: $1.094 billion.

·       Reported average unit volume: $832,000.

·       Reported U.S. locations: 1,184.

Marco's represents an important middle-market competitor. It has a smaller footprint than the four largest chains but enough scale to compete nationally. Its opportunity is to combine recognizable brand positioning with product differentiation and local execution.

6. Papa Murphy's

·       Reported U.S. locations: approximately 1,127 in the cited location ranking.

·       Comparable systemwide sales and AUV: not established in the cited figures.

Papa Murphy's take-and-bake model serves a different meal occasion from conventional delivery and carryout. Consumers finish preparing the pizza at home, allowing the brand to compete for the family dinner occasion through a different service model.

7. Godfather's Pizza

·       Reported U.S. locations: approximately 583 in the cited location ranking.

·       Comparable systemwide sales and AUV: not established in the cited figures.

Godfather's Pizza remains a recognizable competitor with a smaller footprint than the leading national chains. Its position reinforces the importance of distinguishing between national scale and the ability to maintain relevance within particular markets.

The sales and AUV figures above draw on the 2026 QSR 50 and PMQ's 2025 Pizza Power Report. Because reporting dates, estimates and location definitions can vary, the figures for these seven brands should not be interpreted as a single, audited ranking across every measure.

What about customer frequency?

Customer frequency is a critical part of pizza economics, but public information does not provide a consistent, current, apples-to-apples frequency ranking for all seven chains.

Industry surveys have reported that Americans consume pizza several times a month. Those category-level figures demonstrate pizza's recurring role in the American diet, but they do not establish how frequently customers visit a particular chain.

For operators, that distinction matters. A chain can increase AUV through more frequent orders, larger baskets, higher prices or a combination of these factors.

Without customer-level frequency, average ticket, repeat-purchase and retention data, sales figures alone cannot explain the complete consumer story.

The Grocerant Guru® perspective is straightforward: measure how often customers return, not just how many locations you operate.

2. Smithfield Culinary's Findings: Seven Food Marketing Signals

Smithfield Culinary's Guest Check survey, conducted among 2,000 U.S. adults who order restaurant pizza at least monthly, examines what consumers say makes a great pizza. The findings provide useful direction for menu development and marketing, although stated preferences do not automatically translate into purchases or repeat visits.

Here is my assessment of seven important food marketing signals in the findings.

1. Toppings are the leading product differentiator

Forty-six percent of respondents identify toppings as the most important component of a great pizza. Crust ranks first for 30%, sauce for 13%, and cheese for 11%.

Grocerant Guru® rating: A

This is a strong menu-development signal. Toppings give operators an opportunity to create recognizable signature products, limited-time offers and premium combinations without rebuilding an entire menu.

However, the other 54% remind operators that toppings are not everyone's first priority. Crust quality, sauce and cheese remain essential parts of the product experience.

2. Ingredient quality beats piling on more

Thirty-seven percent of respondents prioritize topping quality, compared with 18% who prioritize quantity.

Grocerant Guru® rating: A

This is an important value proposition. Consumers do not necessarily want the heaviest pizza; they want a pizza whose ingredients justify its price.

Better seasoning, appealing textures, consistent portions and recognizable ingredient quality may create more value than simply adding more meat. Operators should test whether customers will pay a premium for those attributes and whether the resulting sales justify the added costs.

3. Destination pizza can create brand advocacy

Nearly eight in ten respondents say they have made a special effort to try a particular pizza, including taking detours, making day trips, waiting in lines or incorporating pizza into travel plans. One-quarter report traveling at least 25 miles to eat pizza or visit a particular pizza restaurant.

Grocerant Guru® rating: A

A compelling pizza can become the destination rather than just the dinner solution.

Operators should develop products worth talking about, signature offerings that customers remember, and regional identities that consumers cannot easily reproduce elsewhere. The opportunity is not to make every pizza expensive; it is to give consumers a reason to choose yours.

4. Pepperoni remains a powerful menu anchor

More than nine in ten respondents say pepperoni will never go out of style. Among the reported pepperoni pairings, sausage leads at 49%, followed by extra cheese at 30%, bacon at 27% and mushrooms at 27%.

Grocerant Guru® rating: A

Familiar favorites reduce the risk of menu experimentation. Pepperoni can anchor a core offering, while sausage, bacon and other complementary ingredients help create a more differentiated premium option.

Operators should test combinations against food cost, customer uptake and repeat orders rather than relying on popularity claims alone.

5. Meat-forward pizza has a defined audience

Twenty-seven percent of respondents identify as “Meat Maximalists,” and the survey says this preference appears across generations. The release also reports that 59% have experienced someone taking a slice of their meat-topped pizza after ordering a vegetarian pizza.

Grocerant Guru® rating: B+

Meat-forward options are worth testing, but a defined segment is not the entire market. A balanced lineup should retain vegetarian choices and allow customization.

Operators should also manage portions carefully. Ingredient appeal must translate into sustainable margins, and menu choices must reflect the needs of different households and occasions.

6. Regional identity can turn pizza into an experience

One-quarter of respondents seek regional pizza styles when traveling. Meanwhile, 82% of Gen Z respondents say they have participated in a friendly debate over which pizza style is best.

Grocerant Guru® rating: A−

Regional styles offer a way to create local relevance, storytelling and limited-time menus. The opportunity is to give customers something distinctive while preserving the consistency national chains need.

A regional product should be authentic enough to interest enthusiasts and accessible enough for mainstream customers. Operators should also consider whether regional offerings attract incremental visits instead of simply shifting customers away from existing menu items.

7. Pizza's competition extends beyond pizza chains

The 2026 Convenience Store News Foodservice Study, cited in the Smithfield Culinary release, reports that 76% of retailers offer pizza.

Grocerant Guru® rating: A

This is a significant channel signal. Consumers can encounter pizza in convenience stores, supermarkets, restaurants and other retail environments.

These channels compete for different occasions, price points and levels of convenience. A convenience-store customer seeking a quick individual meal has different needs from a family ordering several pizzas for dinner.

Pizza operators are no longer competing only with the pizzeria down the street. They are competing for the same meal occasion across an expanding range of foodservice and retail channels.

The grades in this analysis are my editorial assessments of each finding's usefulness for food marketing and menu strategy. They are not ratings assigned by Smithfield Culinary or measured consumer-satisfaction scores.

3. What Smithfield Culinary Gets Right—and What Operators Still Need to Prove

Smithfield Culinary makes a persuasive case for putting more thought into toppings. But from a food marketing perspective, the strongest opportunity is not simply to sell more meat. It is to turn a product preference into a repeatable, profitable customer occasion.

Three distinctions matter.

First, stated preference is not purchase behavior.

Saying toppings matter most does not tell us whether consumers will pay $2 more for premium sausage, switch brands for a specialty pizza or order that product a second time.

Operators need transaction data, menu-item sales, attachment rates and repeat-purchase measurements to establish those connections.

Second, quality must be visible and credible.

If a chain advertises premium ingredients but delivers an inconsistent product, the promise becomes a liability. Portion standards, preparation procedures and ingredient consistency must support the marketing claim.

Quality should be experienced, not just described.

Third, consumer value is larger than the pizza itself.

Price, quality, service, convenience and portability all shape the overall experience. A delicious pizza that arrives late, travels poorly or costs more than the household planned may not earn another order.

Even the largest chains must keep earning consumer business. Scale, brand recognition and digital ordering are advantages, but they do not eliminate the need to demonstrate value on every occasion.

The real question is not whether pizza is popular. It is whether a specific operator can convert that popularity into profitable, repeatable demand.

4. The Grocerant Guru® Consumer Challenge

Here is the test I would put to every pizza-chain executive and independent operator:

If a customer can buy pizza almost anywhere, what makes your pizza worth choosing, worth paying for and worth ordering again?

I would measure the answer through five practical indicators.

Trial: Are signature toppings, regional styles or new combinations bringing new customers into the brand?

Conversion: Do customers who see the offer actually purchase it?

Basket size: Does the new pizza increase the total order, or simply replace another menu item?

Frequency: Do customers return more often after trying it?

Profitability: Does the incremental margin justify the ingredients, labor, promotion and operational complexity?

These measures connect culinary creativity to business performance. They also help operators avoid a common mistake: assuming that a product with strong social-media appeal will necessarily become a reliable source of sales.

Pizza's advantage is its versatility. It can be a family dinner, an individual meal, a game-day centerpiece, a travel discovery, a workplace lunch or a convenient prepared-food purchase.

The challenge is to match the right product, portion, price and service model to each occasion.

Three Grocerant Guru® Insights on How the Pizza Sector Is Evolving

Insight 1: The next pizza battle is about differentiated value, not topping overload.

Smithfield Culinary's finding that 37% prioritize topping quality compared with 18% who prioritize quantity gives operators a reason to rethink premiumization.

The winning offer may be a carefully composed sausage-and-pepperoni pizza with excellent execution rather than an overloaded pie that raises food costs without increasing perceived value.

Test the premium, measure the repeat purchase and let consumers—not the chef's ego—decide.

Insight 2: Pizza is becoming an occasion-driven foodservice platform.

Traditional delivery and carryout remain important, but convenience stores and other retailers are competing for quick meals, snacks and immediate consumption.

Prepared pizza can serve a different need from a made-to-order family dinner. Operators should develop products and service formats around the occasion, considering portion size, holding time, packaging and speed instead of assuming every customer wants the same pizza experience.

This creates opportunities for both national chains and retailers that understand how consumers shop across foodservice channels.

Insight 3: Consumer loyalty will be earned one evolving occasion at a time.

The willingness to travel for pizza and the interest in regional styles show the potential for destination-worthy products. Yet frequency and convenience still matter.

Chains should pair reliable everyday favorites with distinctive regional offerings, limited-time products and digital ordering that makes repeat business easy.

Independent operators can compete through local identity and product character rather than trying to outspend national chains.

The challenge for every operator is to keep evolving without losing the core attributes that earned customer trust in the first place.

The Final Word from the Grocerant Guru®

The U.S. pizza sector is large, highly competitive and increasingly defined by more than store count.

Scale creates reach. Average unit volume helps measure sales productivity. Customer frequency helps reveal loyalty. Culinary differentiation creates a reason to choose one operator over another.

Smithfield Culinary's research adds an important message: toppings are a major opportunity, and consumers say quality matters more than simply piling on ingredients. But the business opportunity lies in connecting those preferences to actual behavior.

At Foodservice Solutions® in Tacoma, Washington, my perspective is straightforward: consumers are dynamic, not static. Their expectations, budgets, meal occasions and definitions of value evolve. The pizza operators that keep pace will be those that continuously test what consumers want, verify what they buy and measure whether they return.

A great pizza can earn a first order. A consistently great experience, delivered at the right price and for the right occasion, is what earns the next one.

Tap into the Foodservice Solutions® team for greater understanding of New Electricity or for a Grocerant Program Assessment, Grocerant ScoreCard, or for product positioning or placement assistance, or call our Grocerant Guru®.  Since 1991 www.FoodserviceSolutions.us  of Tacoma, WA has been the global leader in the Grocerant niche. Contact: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or 253-759-7869

Papa Murphy’s Adds Pinkberry: Why Fixing the Pizza Business Should Come Before Adding Frozen Yogurt

 

If Papa Murphy’s is closing underperforming pizza restaurants, why should anyone believe adding frozen yogurt will fix the underlying problem asks Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru®
Founder, Foodservice Solutions®, Tacoma, Washington.

That is the consumer test Papa Murphy’s and parent company MTY Food Group need to answer before celebrating their latest co-branding strategy.

Three franchise agreements to combine Papa Murphy’s Take ’n’ Bake pizza with Pinkberry frozen yogurt represent a business development announcement. They do not prove stronger consumer demand, more frequent visits, improved profitability, or a successful turnaround.

My challenge to Papa Murphy’s and MTY is simple: Prove that consumers want the combination before treating co-branding as a growth strategy.

Are consumers rejecting Papa Murphy’s because the brand is not meeting their needs? Or is management betting that adding a second brand will make the existing business more attractive?

That distinction matters.

From the perspective of the Grocerant Guru®, consumers do not organize their lives around corporate portfolios, franchise agreements, or shared real estate. They organize food purchases around eating occasions, convenience, taste, price, portability, and perceived value.

A family looking for dinner does not automatically want frozen yogurt. A consumer craving dessert does not automatically want take-and-bake pizza. Putting both brands under one roof may create operating efficiencies, but efficiencies alone do not guarantee incremental customers, repeat visits, or stronger profits.

If the combination generates new customers, more frequent visits, stronger transactions, and sustainable incremental profits, it deserves consideration. If it simply adds another operation to manage while the core pizza business struggles, this is not innovation solving a consumer problem. It is management adding complexity without yet proving the payoff.

That is the test every foodservice growth strategy should face: Does it make the brand more relevant to the consumer—or merely make the corporate portfolio look bigger?

What the Announcement Actually Says

On October 7, 2026, Papa Murphy’s announced three franchise agreements for its co-branded concept with Pinkberry. The locations are:

·       Sunriver, Oregon: Joshua and Samantha Kimzey plan to open their first location in both systems in early November 2026.

·       Santa Fe, New Mexico: Longtime Papa Murphy’s franchisee John Perea will add Pinkberry to his existing restaurant, which he has operated since 2010.

·       West Haven, Utah: Casey Kauer, who operates five Papa Murphy’s restaurants in Utah, plans to open a new co-branded location in summer 2027.

The company identifies shared real estate, labor, and operational resources as potential benefits. The concept also offers franchisees an opportunity to serve different eating occasions and develop additional revenue streams. MTY has identified other possible co-branding opportunities, including sweetFrog.

The important distinction: Three franchise agreements demonstrate interest in testing the model. They do not establish that consumers want the combination, that the economics will outperform a standalone restaurant, or that the concept can reverse Papa Murphy’s broader business challenges.

Those are separate questions, and the industry should not confuse them.

Problem No. 1: Papa Murphy’s Has a Core-Business Challenge

The facts: In July 2026, MTY said it expected to close between 45 and 50 underperforming Papa Murphy’s locations as part of a broader plan to close 68 corporate-owned restaurants across its portfolio. Industry reporting also indicated that Papa Murphy’s U.S. footprint had fallen more than 20% from its 2020 level.

MTY’s third-quarter fiscal 2026 results showed same-store sales declining 1.9% across its system, with the U.S. segment down 2.7%. Those figures cover MTY’s broader business, not Papa Murphy’s alone.

The Grocerant Guru® perspective: These figures make the consumer question more urgent. Before celebrating a new concept, management must establish whether the existing pizza business is attracting customers, retaining them, and generating attractive returns.

Adding another brand might help. It could also introduce additional inventory requirements, equipment needs, staffing demands, and marketing complexity.

The essential question is whether Pinkberry improves the economics of the pizza operation—or simply adds another business to manage.

A new revenue stream is not automatically a profitable one. Management needs to demonstrate that the combined concept produces incremental sales and profits after accounting for all associated costs.

Problem No. 2: More Menu Options Do Not Automatically Create More Demand

The facts: Papa Murphy’s and Pinkberry offer different but potentially complementary propositions. Papa Murphy’s sells take-home pizza that customers bake themselves. Pinkberry specializes in frozen yogurt and toppings.

Pizza can address a family dinner, while frozen yogurt can serve a dessert or snack occasion.

The Grocerant Guru® perspective: Complementary products do not necessarily produce complementary purchasing behavior.

A customer who buys pizza for dinner may not want frozen yogurt. Someone looking for an afternoon dessert may have no reason to visit a take-and-bake pizza store.

The concept must demonstrate that the combined offer creates incremental purchases rather than simply shifting existing Pinkberry or Papa Murphy’s transactions into a shared location.

That distinction matters because incremental sales are not the same as incremental profit.

Management should measure how many customers purchase from both brands, how many are new to each brand, how often customers return, and whether average transaction values and contribution margins improve.

Without that evidence, co-branding remains a hypothesis—not a proven growth strategy.

Problem No. 3: Operational Efficiency Is Not the Same as Customer Value

The facts: MTY promotes shared real estate, labor, and operational efficiencies as benefits of the co-branding model. In Santa Fe, franchisee John Perea has cited seasonality as one reason the combination appealed to him, including the potential to support year-round employment.

These are legitimate business considerations.

The Grocerant Guru® perspective: A lower-cost operating model does not automatically deliver a better customer experience.

Consumers continue to evaluate food quality, price, convenience, service, and whether a purchase fits the occasion. If the combined operation creates confusing ordering, slower service, inconsistent product quality, or an unconvincing value proposition, the projected efficiencies may not translate into customer loyalty.

The brands must also protect their individual identities. Papa Murphy’s must remain relevant to customers seeking a convenient take-home meal, while Pinkberry must offer a compelling frozen-dessert experience.

The winning formula is not simply two signs on one building. It is two distinct customer needs served effectively through a coordinated operation.

The Consumer Test: Five Measures That Matter

Before expanding the concept, Papa Murphy’s and MTY should evaluate five measurable outcomes.

1. Incremental customers. Are new customers entering because of the combined concept, or are existing customers simply switching locations?

2. Cross-brand purchasing. What percentage of pizza transactions also include Pinkberry, and vice versa? Are customers genuinely buying across both brands?

3. Visit frequency. Does the combination give customers a reason to visit more often throughout the week?

4. Profitability. After labor, food costs, equipment, marketing, and occupancy expenses, does the combined operation generate stronger returns than the alternatives?

5. Brand preference. When customers choose between competing pizza, take-home meal, and dessert options, does the combined offer improve the likelihood that they choose these brands?

These measures would help distinguish a promising franchise development story from a genuinely successful consumer strategy.

e Grocerant Guru® Recommendations

1. Build around eating occasions, not just co-branding.

Map the customer journey from dinner planning to dessert. Test family meal bundles, pizza-and-dessert offers, and promotions that give customers a clear reason to purchase from both brands. Measure incremental sales rather than relying on bundle redemptions alone.

2. Make value visible to the consumer.

The combined concept must deliver a compelling reason to choose it over buying pizza and dessert elsewhere. Test price points, portions, family offers, and promotional combinations. Track repeat purchases and contribution margins so discounting does not create the illusion of growth.

3. Prove the model before scaling it.

Use the three locations as a disciplined learning opportunity. Establish baseline performance, measure cross-brand purchases, compare results with appropriate standalone locations, and evaluate the findings before committing to a broader rollout.

Three Grocerant Guru® Insights

Insight No. 1: Fix the Core Before Adding Another Concept.

Co-branding is not a substitute for consumer relevance. Papa Murphy’s must demonstrate that it can attract customers, earn repeat visits, and deliver a compelling Price Value Service Equilibrium. Adding Pinkberry may create another revenue opportunity, but the real measure is whether it strengthens the underlying business.

Insight No. 2: Sell More Eating Occasions, Not Just More Menu Items.

Consumers think in terms of breakfast, lunch, dinner, snacks, and dessert—not corporate brand portfolios. Papa Murphy’s and Pinkberry must prove that their combination creates incremental purchases across those occasions. Shared real estate is an operating strategy; winning more consumer occasions is a growth strategy.

Insight No. 3: Measure Consumer Behavior Before Expanding the Footprint.

Three co-branded locations offer an opportunity to test the concept, not declare victory. Measure new customer acquisition, cross-brand purchases, repeat visits, average transaction value, and incremental profitability. If the numbers demonstrate sustained consumer demand, expand. If they do not, management should resist confusing franchise development with brand growth.

The Bottom Line: Follow the Consumer, Not the Logo

Papa Murphy’s and Pinkberry may have found a workable way to share space, labor, and customer occasions. That possibility deserves a fair test.

But Papa Murphy’s store closures and MTY’s declining U.S. same-store sales make it especially important to distinguish franchise expansion from consumer-led growth. Three signed agreements are a starting point, not a verdict.

The Grocerant Guru® perspective is straightforward: A new concept is only as good as the consumer behavior it changes.

If the combination attracts new customers, increases visit frequency, strengthens brand preference, and generates sustainable incremental profit, it deserves consideration for expansion. If it merely adds operational complexity while the core business continues to struggle, it risks becoming a distraction dressed up as innovation.

Foodservice brands do not grow simply by combining logos. They grow by earning more consumer occasions, delivering meaningful value, and giving people a reason to come back.

Prove the consumer demand first. Celebrate the expansion second.

Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru®
Founder, Foodservice Solutions®
Tacoma, Washington