Why Starbucks and Chipotle Will Struggle in September

 

September has never been kind to brands that overprice, underdeliver, and lean too heavily on nostalgia. Unfortunately for Starbucks and Chipotle, that’s exactly where they stand in the minds-eye of Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.  Once disruptive darlings, both chains now look more like bloated relics, clinging to strategies from yesterday while consumers migrate to fresher, cheaper, and more relevant options.

 

History’s Lesson: Premium Arrogance Always Backfires

Starbucks and Chipotle built their reputations by charging more and pretending it was “worth it.” A latte was not just coffee; it was “the third place.” A burrito wasn’t just fast food; it was “Food With Integrity.” But history shows consumers only tolerate inflated narratives until economic reality smacks them in the wallet.

In the 1990s, fast-food giants duked it out on the dollar menu. Starbucks and Chipotle positioned themselves above it—smugly insulated, or so they thought. Then the 2008 recession exposed the flaw: Starbucks shuttered 900 stores, Chipotle slowed expansion, and both brands watched as cash-strapped consumers traded down. Fast forward to 2025, and we’re staring at the same story: inflation fatigue, shrinking discretionary income, and families choosing practical meals over pricey branding gimmicks.

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September: The Month When Customers Walk

September magnifies what these brands don’t want to admit: their prices are too damn high. Starbucks is trying to push $6–$8 drinks when Wawa, Circle K, and 7-Eleven offer coffee for under $3—and often fresher. Chipotle is charging $12 for a burrito bowl, while regional grocers and C-stores bundle full meals for $7–$9.

This isn’t trading down—it’s trading out. Customers aren’t embarrassed to leave Starbucks or Chipotle anymore. They’re proud to tell friends they got a better meal, faster, for half the price at Costco, Publix, or Casey’s. September becomes the breaking point: brand loyalty evaporates when the paycheck doesn’t stretch.

 

Leadership That Looks Stuck in Yesterday

The real rot shows up at the top. Starbucks keeps recycling Howard Schultz and his disciples like some corporate time warp. Chipotle’s leadership is safe, slow, and addicted to quarterly performance tweaks instead of bold, forward-looking moves.

Meanwhile, competitors like Sweetgreen and Cava are merging tech fluency with lifestyle relevance. They’re designing brands for tomorrow. Starbucks and Chipotle? They’re stuck in a loop—slapping seasonal flavors on stale concepts and praying nostalgia can mask irrelevance. It can’t. Not in September. Not anymore.

 

Four Uncomfortable Truths from the Grocerant Guru®

The Grocerant Guru®, Steven Johnson, has been sounding the alarm for decades. His insights cut through corporate spin and show exactly why Starbucks and Chipotle will stumble:

1.       Grocerants Are Winning the War – 30% of out-of-home meals now come from supermarkets. They’re cheaper, fresher, and closer to home. Chipotle and Starbucks aren’t just losing to restaurants—they’re losing to grocery stores.

2.       Bundles Beat Branding – Consumers crave meal deals under $10. Grocers deliver them daily. Starbucks’ stale muffin + latte combo and Chipotle’s overpriced burrito bowl look laughable by comparison.

3.       Consumers Want Flexible Meals, Not Stuck-in-the-Box Portions – Today’s eaters want items they can portion, reheat, or share. Starbucks’ sugar bombs and Chipotle’s calorie bricks don’t flex to modern life.

4.       Iteration is Death, Innovation is Life – Pumpkin spice drinks and limited-edition salsas are not innovation—they’re lazy iteration. Real innovation marries food, technology, and lifestyle. That’s why Starbucks and Chipotle feel like yesterday’s brands.

 

Think About This: The Fall From Cool to Commodity

Starbucks and Chipotle once defined the cultural food moment. Now, they look like overconfident monopolists pricing themselves into irrelevance. September will not be their friend—it’s the month when consumers tighten belts, rebel against overpriced brands, and discover fresher options.

Without a leadership reset and a willingness to fight on value, Starbucks and Chipotle aren’t just at risk of struggling in September. They’re on track to become the Blockbuster and Barnes & Noble of foodservice: brands that thought their story was timeless—until customers wrote a new one.

Are you ready for some fresh ideations? Do your food marketing ideas look more like yesterday than tomorrow? Interested in learning how our Grocerant Guru® can edify your retail food brand while creating a platform for consumer convenient meal participation, differentiation and individualization?  Email us at: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or visit: us on our social media sites by clicking one of the following links: Facebook,  LinkedIn, or Twitter