Why Restaurants Must Migrate to a Grocerant Template—Before It’s Too Late

 

Consumers Aren’t Dining Out Less—They’re Dining Differently

Relentlessly high menu prices and macroeconomic pressures have created a turning point for restaurants. Inflation isn’t just raising food costs—it’s redefining how, where, and why Americans eat.

A new YouGov report (October 2025) paints a stark picture:

·       37% of Americans are eating out less frequently than a year ago.

·       Among lower-income dinners, that number spikes to 44%.

·       Only 8% of diners report eating out more than last year.

This pullback is driven by price perception. A full 82% of consumers say restaurant prices have increased over the past year, while fewer than 28% believe the prices are fair for the quality they receive. The Consumer Price Index backs them up—menu prices rose 3.7% year-over-year from September 2024 to September 2025.

In response, consumers are reshaping their behavior:

·       60% now choose cheaper restaurants.

·       53% actively use coupons or discounts.

·       51% order fewer items.

·       42% skip drinks.

The result? Shrinking traffic, shrinking frequency, and shrinking relevance.

“Americans still enjoy dining out, but value has become the deciding factor shaping where and how they choose to eat,” said Nora Hao, Senior Sales Director at YouGov America. “As costs continue to rise, consumers are becoming more selective—and restaurants that pair affordability with loyalty rewards and smart digital engagement will come out ahead in 2025.”

 

Legacy Chains Are Losing Ground

Despite their brand equity, many casual dining and fast-casual chains are suffering double-digit guest count declines. Circana data shows total restaurant visits down 1.7% year-over-year, with full-service restaurants hit hardest at –2.4%.

·       Applebee’s: Traffic down 3.6%, even as check averages rise.

·       Chili’s: Guest counts off 2.9%, with “value fatigue” undermining its loyalty gains.

·       Red Lobster: Filed for bankruptcy in 2024 amid declining customer counts and operational strain.

The takeaway is clear: value has migrated elsewhere. Consumers are replacing restaurant visits with hybridized, home-based, and cross-channel meal solutions—what the Grocerant Guru® calls “the Mix-and-Match Meal Movement.”

 

The Mix-and-Match Meal Movement

Today’s consumers build meals the way they build playlists—one component at a time, from multiple sources. The new “family dinner” might look like this:

·       Costco + Chick-fil-A + Trader Joe’s:
Rotisserie chicken, waffle fries, and a salad kit—fresh, fast, and under $20.

·       Whole Foods + Domino’s:
Pizza paired with hot bar veggies and soup—a blend of indulgence and balance.

·       Target Café + Panera Grocery Line:
Comfort-food favorites reimagined as modular convenience.

·       7-Eleven + Local Taqueria:
Local tacos meet national convenience—fresh meets fast.

This hybrid behavior represents a seismic channel shift. Consumers aren’t abandoning restaurants; they’re abandoning rigid formats. They want restaurant flavor, grocery value, and convenience-store accessibility—all at once.

 

Deals Still Matter—But Flexibility Matters More

According to YouGov, deals remain a powerful motivator:

·       58% of diners say “Buy One, Get One Free” (BOGO) offers would bring them back.

·       56% respond to straightforward discounts.

·       33% value loyalty points or rewards.

·       77% of all U.S. diners say a compelling loyalty offer could increase their frequency—though nearly half note “it depends on the offer.”

This underscores a crucial truth: consumers aren’t loyal to logos anymore—they’re loyal to value and flexibility.

The Grocerant Template enables operators to deliver both. It allows for modular meal pricing, component-based bundling, and multi-channel access (dine-in, delivery, grocery placement, or convenience partnerships).

 

Three Insights from the Grocerant Guru®

1.       “Consumers have redefined eating out as eating anywhere.”
Seventy-three percent of all prepared meal decisions are made within two hours of consumption. Winning brands meet consumers in that window—wherever they are, not just at the restaurant.

2.       “Value now means flexibility.”
Discounting alone won’t drive loyalty. Consumers want the power to curate their own meal experience through smaller, mix-and-match choices that reflect their tastes, budgets, and time constraints.

3.       “Channel blur is the new normal.”
The next generation of successful brands won’t be “restaurants” or “retailers.” They’ll be ecosystems that integrate both—offering freshness, flavor, and frictionless convenience across every channel.

 

The Future: Grocerant as the New Operating System

The restaurant of tomorrow won’t be defined by dining rooms or drive-thrus. It will be defined by its flexibility—its ability to serve, stock, and sell meal components that fit into consumers’ daily lives.

Those who adopt the Grocerant Template—with modular menus, retail integration, and loyalty programs rooted in value, not volume—will win the future of food.

Those who don’t will keep raising prices, losing traffic, and watching relevance fade.

The Grocerant isn’t a niche. It’s the next-generation business model for a generation that wants flavor, flexibility, and affordability—on their own terms.

Success Leaves Clues—Are You Ready to Find Yours?

One key insight that continues to drive success is this: "The consumer is dynamic, not static." This principle is the foundation of our work at Foodservice Solutions®, where Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, has been helping brands stay relevant in an ever-evolving market.

Want to strengthen your brand’s connection with today’s consumers? Let’s talk. Call 253-759-7869 for more information.

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At Foodservice Solutions®, we specialize in consumer-driven retail food strategies that enhance convenience, differentiation, and individualization—key factors in driving growth.

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