Why Starbucks and Chipotle Will Struggle in September

 

September has never been kind to brands that overprice, underdeliver, and lean too heavily on nostalgia. Unfortunately for Starbucks and Chipotle, that’s exactly where they stand in the minds-eye of Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.  Once disruptive darlings, both chains now look more like bloated relics, clinging to strategies from yesterday while consumers migrate to fresher, cheaper, and more relevant options.

 

History’s Lesson: Premium Arrogance Always Backfires

Starbucks and Chipotle built their reputations by charging more and pretending it was “worth it.” A latte was not just coffee; it was “the third place.” A burrito wasn’t just fast food; it was “Food With Integrity.” But history shows consumers only tolerate inflated narratives until economic reality smacks them in the wallet.

In the 1990s, fast-food giants duked it out on the dollar menu. Starbucks and Chipotle positioned themselves above it—smugly insulated, or so they thought. Then the 2008 recession exposed the flaw: Starbucks shuttered 900 stores, Chipotle slowed expansion, and both brands watched as cash-strapped consumers traded down. Fast forward to 2025, and we’re staring at the same story: inflation fatigue, shrinking discretionary income, and families choosing practical meals over pricey branding gimmicks.

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September: The Month When Customers Walk

September magnifies what these brands don’t want to admit: their prices are too damn high. Starbucks is trying to push $6–$8 drinks when Wawa, Circle K, and 7-Eleven offer coffee for under $3—and often fresher. Chipotle is charging $12 for a burrito bowl, while regional grocers and C-stores bundle full meals for $7–$9.

This isn’t trading down—it’s trading out. Customers aren’t embarrassed to leave Starbucks or Chipotle anymore. They’re proud to tell friends they got a better meal, faster, for half the price at Costco, Publix, or Casey’s. September becomes the breaking point: brand loyalty evaporates when the paycheck doesn’t stretch.

 

Leadership That Looks Stuck in Yesterday

The real rot shows up at the top. Starbucks keeps recycling Howard Schultz and his disciples like some corporate time warp. Chipotle’s leadership is safe, slow, and addicted to quarterly performance tweaks instead of bold, forward-looking moves.

Meanwhile, competitors like Sweetgreen and Cava are merging tech fluency with lifestyle relevance. They’re designing brands for tomorrow. Starbucks and Chipotle? They’re stuck in a loop—slapping seasonal flavors on stale concepts and praying nostalgia can mask irrelevance. It can’t. Not in September. Not anymore.

 

Four Uncomfortable Truths from the Grocerant Guru®

The Grocerant Guru®, Steven Johnson, has been sounding the alarm for decades. His insights cut through corporate spin and show exactly why Starbucks and Chipotle will stumble:

1.       Grocerants Are Winning the War – 30% of out-of-home meals now come from supermarkets. They’re cheaper, fresher, and closer to home. Chipotle and Starbucks aren’t just losing to restaurants—they’re losing to grocery stores.

2.       Bundles Beat Branding – Consumers crave meal deals under $10. Grocers deliver them daily. Starbucks’ stale muffin + latte combo and Chipotle’s overpriced burrito bowl look laughable by comparison.

3.       Consumers Want Flexible Meals, Not Stuck-in-the-Box Portions – Today’s eaters want items they can portion, reheat, or share. Starbucks’ sugar bombs and Chipotle’s calorie bricks don’t flex to modern life.

4.       Iteration is Death, Innovation is Life – Pumpkin spice drinks and limited-edition salsas are not innovation—they’re lazy iteration. Real innovation marries food, technology, and lifestyle. That’s why Starbucks and Chipotle feel like yesterday’s brands.

 

Think About This: The Fall From Cool to Commodity

Starbucks and Chipotle once defined the cultural food moment. Now, they look like overconfident monopolists pricing themselves into irrelevance. September will not be their friend—it’s the month when consumers tighten belts, rebel against overpriced brands, and discover fresher options.

Without a leadership reset and a willingness to fight on value, Starbucks and Chipotle aren’t just at risk of struggling in September. They’re on track to become the Blockbuster and Barnes & Noble of foodservice: brands that thought their story was timeless—until customers wrote a new one.

Are you ready for some fresh ideations? Do your food marketing ideas look more like yesterday than tomorrow? Interested in learning how our Grocerant Guru® can edify your retail food brand while creating a platform for consumer convenient meal participation, differentiation and individualization?  Email us at: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or visit: us on our social media sites by clicking one of the following links: Facebook,  LinkedIn, or Twitter

Applebee’s Scores with Interactive Marketing: Why the “Ultimate Trio” Strategy Aligns with Industry Trends

 

Applebee’s is doubling down on its position as the NFL’s “Official Grill Bar,” introducing a promotion that blends menu innovation, customer participation, and sports fandom. The chain’s new Ultimate Trio — three appetizers and three dipping sauces for $14.99 — is designed to put choice directly in customers’ hands. With 10 appetizers and 10 sauces, Applebee’s marketing team notes the move creates more than 80,000 possible flavor combinations, a hallmark of today’s personalization-driven food marketplace according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

Industry Insight: Why This Matters

In a foodservice landscape where customization and value are driving consumer traffic, Applebee’s is hitting on multiple trends at once:

·       Meal Bundling Builds Frequency: According to NPD Group, bundled meal deals represent nearly 40% of casual-dining promotions, and consumers perceive bundled options as a greater value, especially in inflationary times. Applebee’s Trio and 2 for $25 lineup cater to that demand while maintaining check averages.

·       Interactive Marketing Garners Buy-In: When guests play a role in “creating” their meal, the purchase shifts from transactional to experiential. That buy-in drives loyalty and repeat visits, a strategy brands from Chipotle to Subway have long leveraged successfully.

·       Sports + Dining = Built-In Community: Nielsen reports that more than 60% of NFL fans regularly combine watching football with ordering food and beverages outside the home. Applebee’s is capturing this “communal dining and sports” sweet spot by positioning its restaurants as social gathering hubs.

Why Applebee’s “Ultimate Trio” Will Succeed

1.       Value Reinforcement: At $14.99, the Trio competes strongly with QSR “share packs” while offering full-service quality. It’s an entry point for families and groups looking to share without overspending.

2.       Choice as Differentiation: With tens of thousands of flavor combinations, the promotion satisfies a wide demographic, from traditionalists sticking with mozzarella sticks and marinara to adventurous fans pairing riblets with chipotle lime salsa.

3.       Marketing Alignment with Fandom: Tying the Trio to the NFL season — complete with ads featuring Dan Campbell, Ashton Jeanty, and C.J. Stroud — ensures cultural relevance and sports-driven traffic spikes.

Why the Grocerant Guru® Believes It Works

1.       Community First, Food Second: The value of dining in a social setting — particularly with sports as the backdrop — cannot be overstated. Applebee’s is positioning itself as the place where fans gather, not just eat.

2.       Empowered Consumers: From dirty sodas for younger diners to customizable trios for groups, Applebee’s strategy recognizes the modern diner’s desire for personalization without friction.

3.       Brand Halo Effect: By extending its 2 for $25 and $6 NFL Sips alongside the Trio, Applebee’s creates a holistic value ecosystem. This positions the chain not only as affordable, but also as innovative, current, and socially relevant.

Competitive Comparison: How Applebee’s Stacks Up

·       Buffalo Wild Wings (BWW): BWW has long dominated the sports + food category, but its focus leans heavily on wings and beer. Applebee’s differentiates by offering broader menu variety (burgers, pastas, salads, trios) while tapping into NFL fandom at a more affordable price point.

·       Chili’s: Chili’s continues to drive traffic with its “3 for Me” bundles and iconic margaritas. However, Applebee’s is innovating further with interactive choice mechanics (80,000+ Trio combos) and a beverage lineup that appeals to younger consumers with dirty sodas — a category Chili’s hasn’t leaned into.

·       Red Robin: Known for bottomless fries and burgers, Red Robin focuses on indulgence but has struggled with brand relevance. Applebee’s interactive, participatory approach makes it feel fresher and more socially connected, especially tied to NFL promotions.

·       Fast Casual Threats (Chipotle, Wingstop): These players win on customization and portability but lack the communal “game-day experience” Applebee’s delivers. The grill bar concept bridges that gap, offering both dine-in camaraderie and to-go flexibility.

Think About This

Applebee’s recent return to positive same-store sales growth underscores the effectiveness of its “value + experience” strategy. In an era when casual dining has faced headwinds from fast casual and QSR competitors, Applebee’s participatory approach provides a roadmap for relevance: empower choice, encourage community, and align with cultural passion points like sports.

The Ultimate Trio isn’t just a menu addition — it’s a marketing play that reinforces Applebee’s as the casual-dining destination where food and fandom intersect.

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Gen Z’s Return to Real: Why Comfort, Clarity, and Control Are Winning the Day

 

Marketers, listen up: Gen Z isn’t the radical, unpredictable force you thought they were according to Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®. The latest insights from Collage Group’s just-released report reveal a profound shift in how today’s youngest adults are approaching life, food, and brand engagement. Spoiler alert: they’re not seeking disruption. They’re seeking stability, simplicity, and substance.

As the Grocerant Guru®, I’ve long watched the intersection of evolving lifestyles, consumer discontent, and food choice. Gen Z is now pulling the food world—and the rest of the marketplace—back toward familiarity and control. Let’s unpack what this means for grocery stores, restaurants, and C-stores working to stay relevant.

 

Risk-Averse, Routine-Oriented, and Nostalgic? Yes, Really.

According to Collage Group, a full 62% of Gen Z now identifies as risk-averse, up 13 percentage points from last year. Meanwhile, 65% are routine-driven, and 55% report feelings of nostalgia, all showing double-digit year-over-year increases.

Translation? Gen Z is exhausted. From digital chaos and economic instability to climate fear and COVID hangovers, they’ve been hit hard—and it shows. In this context, it’s no wonder they’re turning to the familiar: traditional meals, simple routines, and comforting formats like Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat bundled meals.

As the Grocerant Guru®, I’ve seen this before: When consumers feel out of control, they retreat to food they trust, brands they recognize, and solutions that save time without sacrificing values.

 

The Myth of Gen Z as a Political Monolith

For years, the dominant narrative pegged Gen Z as hyper-progressive and radically political. But Collage Group’s report challenges that head-on. The numbers tell a different story:

• 28% identify as liberal
• 23% as conservative
• A notable 36% remain unsure

What’s going on? Gen Z grew up amid institutional failure—from the Great Recession and college debt traps to broken healthcare systems and pandemic mismanagement. According to the report, they feel deeply disconnected from both political parties and national identity.

In food terms, this means they’re also skeptical of big brand promises. Authenticity matters more than ideology. If your restaurant or grocery brand is pushing performative values but ignoring transparency or price parity, Gen Z will walk away.

 

Five Lifestyle Trends Every Food Marketer Needs to Know

Collage Group’s findings shine a light on the values fueling Gen Z’s purchasing decisions today. Here’s what I see as their implications for the food and retail sectors:

1. Health & Wellness = Personal Responsibility

With institutional distrust running high, Gen Z sees wellness as a DIY project. 58% say they feel confident managing their health independently. This is your moment to offer functional foods, immunity-boosting snacks, and nutrient-packed grab-and-go bundles that support that independence.

2. Food & Beverage = Control Through Clarity

Nearly half (47%) of Gen Z reads snack labels. They crave simple, natural ingredients and want to know what’s in their food and where it came from. Clean-label prepared meals and transparent sourcing will win over this demographic.

3. Personal Care = Minimalism Over Marketing

Beauty overload has backfired. Gen Z now favors minimal ingredients, simplified routines, and less hype. The same is true in food: simple meals with high-quality, few-ingredient components resonate far more than overly processed “innovation.”

4. Fashion & Style = Intentional Simplicity

Whether it’s “quiet luxury,” cottagecore, or trad-core aesthetics, Gen Z wants order, clarity, and intentionality. That craving extends to their food: portioned meal kits, mix-and-match bento boxes, and customizable grocery solutions offer the control they seek.

5. Spirituality & Domesticity Rising

One of the most unexpected trends? A surge in spiritual exploration and fascination with traditional domestic lifestyles. Think: cooking from scratch, creating rituals around meals, and seeking grounding routines. Brands that lean into food as comfort, culture, and family connection will find a loyal Gen Z base.

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Action Steps from the Grocerant Guru®

To tap into this shift, food retailers and restaurants must go beyond demographics and dig into cultural psychographics. Here’s how:

• Build Radical Transparency into Every Touchpoint
  Let customers know where ingredients come from, how meals are made, and why they’re priced the way they are. Trust starts here.
• Curate Simplicity, Not Oversimplification
  Offer fewer, better choices. A customizable 3-item meal bundle (protein, veggie, side) beats 30 chaotic SKUs every time.
• Empower Gen Z’s Self-Reliance
  Add how-to guides, ingredient insights, or prep tips. Show that you’re their partner in building better habits—not a gatekeeper to wellness.
• Celebrate Realness, Not Perfection
  Ditch the filters. Share behind-the-scenes content, showcase your people, and let the food speak for itself.

 

Final Bite from the Grocerant Guru®

What Collage Group’s latest report shows—and what I’ve seen firsthand—is that Gen Z’s quest isn’t for radical reinvention. It’s for control, calm, and connection. Their lives are chaotic, but their choices are increasingly clear: clean ingredients, real brands, and food that feels like home.

Forget trying to be flashy. Be consistent. Be real. Offer them a meal that’s simple, soulful, and self-directed—and you won’t just sell food. You’ll earn trust.

That’s the recipe for relevance in 2025.

The Grocerant Guru®
Leading Voice in Ready-2-Eat & Heat-N-Eat Food Trends, Bundling, and Consumer-Centric Innovation

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Gen Z and Millennials' Eating Habits Mirror Memory’s

 

As Millennials transition into parenthood, their dining habits increasingly reflect those of their upbringing. According to Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA-based Foodservice Solutions®, Millennials are embracing grocerant niche Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat fresh food options largely because they enjoyed these convenient meal solutions when their parents provided them. This generational continuity in eating habits is backed by compelling food industry data that underscores the evolution of consumer food choices.

Changing Consumer Behaviors: The Rise of Convenience

The demand for convenience continues to shape the food industry. Recent data highlights that online grocery shopping and food delivery services have surged, with food and beverage sales as a percentage of total retail e-commerce sales increasing from 9.3% in 2017 to nearly 16% in 2023. This trend is projected to reach 21.5% by 20271. Additionally, 44% of grocery transactions now involve self-checkout systems, reflecting a shift toward digital engagement.

For Millennials and Gen Z, convenience is not just about speed but also about quality. These generations are increasingly drawn to functional foods—products that offer health benefits beyond basic nutrition. Foods enriched with adaptogens, omega-3 fatty acids, and vitamins are gaining popularity, aligning with their focus on mental and physical wellness.

Millennials and Family Dining Trends

Millennials with children continue to influence dining trends. While dinner remains the most popular meal for foodservice options, breakfast and lunch are seeing increased engagement. Interestingly, Millennial parents often mix restaurant-prepared food with home-cooked items, a trend that signifies a preference for both convenience and customization.

Moreover, Gen Z is reshaping the food industry with their emphasis on sustainability and authenticity. They prefer organically sourced products and sustainable packaging, and they are more likely to choose plant-based or vegetarian options. This generation also values cultural authenticity in their dining experiences, favoring international cuisines prepared by chefs trained in authentic techniques. 

The Growth of Grocerant Niche Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat Fresh Food

The grocerant niche continues to thrive, with restaurants, service delis, and convenience stores investing in pre-prepared meal solutions to meet consumer demand. These options are particularly appealing to Millennials and Gen Z, who prioritize high-quality, ready-to-eat meals that align with their health and lifestyle goals.

Driving Change: How Businesses Can Adapt

To stay ahead, food retailers and service providers must recognize these shifting consumer patterns and adapt accordingly. Strategies include:

·         Offering functional and fortified foods that cater to health-conscious consumers.

·         Embracing sustainability by using eco-friendly packaging and sourcing ingredients responsibly.

·         Leveraging technology to enhance the customer experience, such as personalized recommendations and seamless online ordering systems.

·         Highlighting cultural authenticity in menu offerings to appeal to Gen Z's preference for diverse and meaningful dining experiences.

By aligning with the preferences of Millennials and Gen Z, businesses can tap into a lucrative and growing market segment. The future of dining is a fusion of convenience, digital engagement, and familiar comfort foods, making it essential to anticipate consumer demands and embrace change.

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For corporate presentations, regional chain strategies, educational forums, or keynote speaking, Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, delivers actionable insights that fuel success.

With deep experience in restaurant operations, brand positioning, and strategic consulting, Steven provides valuable takeaways that inspire and drive results.

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