Why Starbucks and Chipotle Will Struggle in September

 

September has never been kind to brands that overprice, underdeliver, and lean too heavily on nostalgia. Unfortunately for Starbucks and Chipotle, that’s exactly where they stand in the minds-eye of Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.  Once disruptive darlings, both chains now look more like bloated relics, clinging to strategies from yesterday while consumers migrate to fresher, cheaper, and more relevant options.

 

History’s Lesson: Premium Arrogance Always Backfires

Starbucks and Chipotle built their reputations by charging more and pretending it was “worth it.” A latte was not just coffee; it was “the third place.” A burrito wasn’t just fast food; it was “Food With Integrity.” But history shows consumers only tolerate inflated narratives until economic reality smacks them in the wallet.

In the 1990s, fast-food giants duked it out on the dollar menu. Starbucks and Chipotle positioned themselves above it—smugly insulated, or so they thought. Then the 2008 recession exposed the flaw: Starbucks shuttered 900 stores, Chipotle slowed expansion, and both brands watched as cash-strapped consumers traded down. Fast forward to 2025, and we’re staring at the same story: inflation fatigue, shrinking discretionary income, and families choosing practical meals over pricey branding gimmicks.

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September: The Month When Customers Walk

September magnifies what these brands don’t want to admit: their prices are too damn high. Starbucks is trying to push $6–$8 drinks when Wawa, Circle K, and 7-Eleven offer coffee for under $3—and often fresher. Chipotle is charging $12 for a burrito bowl, while regional grocers and C-stores bundle full meals for $7–$9.

This isn’t trading down—it’s trading out. Customers aren’t embarrassed to leave Starbucks or Chipotle anymore. They’re proud to tell friends they got a better meal, faster, for half the price at Costco, Publix, or Casey’s. September becomes the breaking point: brand loyalty evaporates when the paycheck doesn’t stretch.

 

Leadership That Looks Stuck in Yesterday

The real rot shows up at the top. Starbucks keeps recycling Howard Schultz and his disciples like some corporate time warp. Chipotle’s leadership is safe, slow, and addicted to quarterly performance tweaks instead of bold, forward-looking moves.

Meanwhile, competitors like Sweetgreen and Cava are merging tech fluency with lifestyle relevance. They’re designing brands for tomorrow. Starbucks and Chipotle? They’re stuck in a loop—slapping seasonal flavors on stale concepts and praying nostalgia can mask irrelevance. It can’t. Not in September. Not anymore.

 

Four Uncomfortable Truths from the Grocerant Guru®

The Grocerant Guru®, Steven Johnson, has been sounding the alarm for decades. His insights cut through corporate spin and show exactly why Starbucks and Chipotle will stumble:

1.       Grocerants Are Winning the War – 30% of out-of-home meals now come from supermarkets. They’re cheaper, fresher, and closer to home. Chipotle and Starbucks aren’t just losing to restaurants—they’re losing to grocery stores.

2.       Bundles Beat Branding – Consumers crave meal deals under $10. Grocers deliver them daily. Starbucks’ stale muffin + latte combo and Chipotle’s overpriced burrito bowl look laughable by comparison.

3.       Consumers Want Flexible Meals, Not Stuck-in-the-Box Portions – Today’s eaters want items they can portion, reheat, or share. Starbucks’ sugar bombs and Chipotle’s calorie bricks don’t flex to modern life.

4.       Iteration is Death, Innovation is Life – Pumpkin spice drinks and limited-edition salsas are not innovation—they’re lazy iteration. Real innovation marries food, technology, and lifestyle. That’s why Starbucks and Chipotle feel like yesterday’s brands.

 

Think About This: The Fall From Cool to Commodity

Starbucks and Chipotle once defined the cultural food moment. Now, they look like overconfident monopolists pricing themselves into irrelevance. September will not be their friend—it’s the month when consumers tighten belts, rebel against overpriced brands, and discover fresher options.

Without a leadership reset and a willingness to fight on value, Starbucks and Chipotle aren’t just at risk of struggling in September. They’re on track to become the Blockbuster and Barnes & Noble of foodservice: brands that thought their story was timeless—until customers wrote a new one.

Are you ready for some fresh ideations? Do your food marketing ideas look more like yesterday than tomorrow? Interested in learning how our Grocerant Guru® can edify your retail food brand while creating a platform for consumer convenient meal participation, differentiation and individualization?  Email us at: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or visit: us on our social media sites by clicking one of the following links: Facebook,  LinkedIn, or Twitter

Applebee’s Scores with Interactive Marketing: Why the “Ultimate Trio” Strategy Aligns with Industry Trends

 

Applebee’s is doubling down on its position as the NFL’s “Official Grill Bar,” introducing a promotion that blends menu innovation, customer participation, and sports fandom. The chain’s new Ultimate Trio — three appetizers and three dipping sauces for $14.99 — is designed to put choice directly in customers’ hands. With 10 appetizers and 10 sauces, Applebee’s marketing team notes the move creates more than 80,000 possible flavor combinations, a hallmark of today’s personalization-driven food marketplace according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

Industry Insight: Why This Matters

In a foodservice landscape where customization and value are driving consumer traffic, Applebee’s is hitting on multiple trends at once:

·       Meal Bundling Builds Frequency: According to NPD Group, bundled meal deals represent nearly 40% of casual-dining promotions, and consumers perceive bundled options as a greater value, especially in inflationary times. Applebee’s Trio and 2 for $25 lineup cater to that demand while maintaining check averages.

·       Interactive Marketing Garners Buy-In: When guests play a role in “creating” their meal, the purchase shifts from transactional to experiential. That buy-in drives loyalty and repeat visits, a strategy brands from Chipotle to Subway have long leveraged successfully.

·       Sports + Dining = Built-In Community: Nielsen reports that more than 60% of NFL fans regularly combine watching football with ordering food and beverages outside the home. Applebee’s is capturing this “communal dining and sports” sweet spot by positioning its restaurants as social gathering hubs.

Why Applebee’s “Ultimate Trio” Will Succeed

1.       Value Reinforcement: At $14.99, the Trio competes strongly with QSR “share packs” while offering full-service quality. It’s an entry point for families and groups looking to share without overspending.

2.       Choice as Differentiation: With tens of thousands of flavor combinations, the promotion satisfies a wide demographic, from traditionalists sticking with mozzarella sticks and marinara to adventurous fans pairing riblets with chipotle lime salsa.

3.       Marketing Alignment with Fandom: Tying the Trio to the NFL season — complete with ads featuring Dan Campbell, Ashton Jeanty, and C.J. Stroud — ensures cultural relevance and sports-driven traffic spikes.

Why the Grocerant Guru® Believes It Works

1.       Community First, Food Second: The value of dining in a social setting — particularly with sports as the backdrop — cannot be overstated. Applebee’s is positioning itself as the place where fans gather, not just eat.

2.       Empowered Consumers: From dirty sodas for younger diners to customizable trios for groups, Applebee’s strategy recognizes the modern diner’s desire for personalization without friction.

3.       Brand Halo Effect: By extending its 2 for $25 and $6 NFL Sips alongside the Trio, Applebee’s creates a holistic value ecosystem. This positions the chain not only as affordable, but also as innovative, current, and socially relevant.

Competitive Comparison: How Applebee’s Stacks Up

·       Buffalo Wild Wings (BWW): BWW has long dominated the sports + food category, but its focus leans heavily on wings and beer. Applebee’s differentiates by offering broader menu variety (burgers, pastas, salads, trios) while tapping into NFL fandom at a more affordable price point.

·       Chili’s: Chili’s continues to drive traffic with its “3 for Me” bundles and iconic margaritas. However, Applebee’s is innovating further with interactive choice mechanics (80,000+ Trio combos) and a beverage lineup that appeals to younger consumers with dirty sodas — a category Chili’s hasn’t leaned into.

·       Red Robin: Known for bottomless fries and burgers, Red Robin focuses on indulgence but has struggled with brand relevance. Applebee’s interactive, participatory approach makes it feel fresher and more socially connected, especially tied to NFL promotions.

·       Fast Casual Threats (Chipotle, Wingstop): These players win on customization and portability but lack the communal “game-day experience” Applebee’s delivers. The grill bar concept bridges that gap, offering both dine-in camaraderie and to-go flexibility.

Think About This

Applebee’s recent return to positive same-store sales growth underscores the effectiveness of its “value + experience” strategy. In an era when casual dining has faced headwinds from fast casual and QSR competitors, Applebee’s participatory approach provides a roadmap for relevance: empower choice, encourage community, and align with cultural passion points like sports.

The Ultimate Trio isn’t just a menu addition — it’s a marketing play that reinforces Applebee’s as the casual-dining destination where food and fandom intersect.

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Gen Z and Millennials' Eating Habits Mirror Memory’s

 

As Millennials transition into parenthood, their dining habits increasingly reflect those of their upbringing. According to Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA-based Foodservice Solutions®, Millennials are embracing grocerant niche Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat fresh food options largely because they enjoyed these convenient meal solutions when their parents provided them. This generational continuity in eating habits is backed by compelling food industry data that underscores the evolution of consumer food choices.

Changing Consumer Behaviors: The Rise of Convenience

The demand for convenience continues to shape the food industry. Recent data highlights that online grocery shopping and food delivery services have surged, with food and beverage sales as a percentage of total retail e-commerce sales increasing from 9.3% in 2017 to nearly 16% in 2023. This trend is projected to reach 21.5% by 20271. Additionally, 44% of grocery transactions now involve self-checkout systems, reflecting a shift toward digital engagement.

For Millennials and Gen Z, convenience is not just about speed but also about quality. These generations are increasingly drawn to functional foods—products that offer health benefits beyond basic nutrition. Foods enriched with adaptogens, omega-3 fatty acids, and vitamins are gaining popularity, aligning with their focus on mental and physical wellness.

Millennials and Family Dining Trends

Millennials with children continue to influence dining trends. While dinner remains the most popular meal for foodservice options, breakfast and lunch are seeing increased engagement. Interestingly, Millennial parents often mix restaurant-prepared food with home-cooked items, a trend that signifies a preference for both convenience and customization.

Moreover, Gen Z is reshaping the food industry with their emphasis on sustainability and authenticity. They prefer organically sourced products and sustainable packaging, and they are more likely to choose plant-based or vegetarian options. This generation also values cultural authenticity in their dining experiences, favoring international cuisines prepared by chefs trained in authentic techniques. 

The Growth of Grocerant Niche Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat Fresh Food

The grocerant niche continues to thrive, with restaurants, service delis, and convenience stores investing in pre-prepared meal solutions to meet consumer demand. These options are particularly appealing to Millennials and Gen Z, who prioritize high-quality, ready-to-eat meals that align with their health and lifestyle goals.

Driving Change: How Businesses Can Adapt

To stay ahead, food retailers and service providers must recognize these shifting consumer patterns and adapt accordingly. Strategies include:

·         Offering functional and fortified foods that cater to health-conscious consumers.

·         Embracing sustainability by using eco-friendly packaging and sourcing ingredients responsibly.

·         Leveraging technology to enhance the customer experience, such as personalized recommendations and seamless online ordering systems.

·         Highlighting cultural authenticity in menu offerings to appeal to Gen Z's preference for diverse and meaningful dining experiences.

By aligning with the preferences of Millennials and Gen Z, businesses can tap into a lucrative and growing market segment. The future of dining is a fusion of convenience, digital engagement, and familiar comfort foods, making it essential to anticipate consumer demands and embrace change.

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For corporate presentations, regional chain strategies, educational forums, or keynote speaking, Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, delivers actionable insights that fuel success.

With deep experience in restaurant operations, brand positioning, and strategic consulting, Steven provides valuable takeaways that inspire and drive results.

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📞 Call 1-253-759-7869

 

Cooking at Home is Becoming a Threat to Restaurants

There is no doubt it cost a lot to go out to eat at fast food restaurant, fast casual restaurants and full-service sit-down restaurants.  That’s a problem for the restaurant industry according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

Some new research insights on how the culinary interests of younger generations are shaping the food industry, particularly in the realm of hand-held foods. The latest Y-Pulse Youth Lifestyle Monitor report reveals that more than half of 8- to 18-year-olds relish the opportunity to prepare meals for their families, a testament to their growing culinary confidence. Think about that?   Is the restaurant sector losing the next generation of restaurant dinners?

Hand-held foods, with their convenience and variety, are playing a pivotal role in engaging Gen Z customers. These foods cater to their desire for creativity, personalization, and exploration of diverse flavors. They're not just consumers; they're becoming discerning diners, self-assured cooks, and even influencers in today's food culture. 

The report highlights the significant influences shaping these young food enthusiasts' perspectives, including food media, chefs, food and nutrition professionals, and parents. It's fascinating to see how today's food-savvy millennial moms are inspiring a new generation of kids who are confident in cooking and critiquing food. 

Cooking is increasingly seen as a form of creative expression moms enjoy cooking and being creative with ingredients in the kitchen. They welcome recipes but prefer those that allow them to put their own spin on dishes. This creativity extends to their children, with more than half reporting that they enjoy cooking for their family. 

Entertainment is also a powerful educational tool. More than half of K-12 kids watch the Food Network and "Tasty" style videos for entertainment. They're not just passive viewers; they're actively trying to recreate the meals they see on these platforms. Social media platforms are brimming with cooking shows hosted kids, focusing on simple and fun recipes that children can easily follow and recreate at home. 

Young consumers are also engaging in culinary criticism as a form of conversation. They're exploring flavors, reviewing food venues, and sharing their experiences and opinions on social media platforms. This trend is particularly pronounced among 15- to 18-year-olds, with 62% reporting posting about their restaurant experiences. 

Successful food industry professionals understand the importance of engaging these discerning young tastemakers. From school nutrition to senior dining, they're creating events designed to encourage families and grandchildren to visit and share experiences. Hand-held foods, with their inherent appeal to younger generations, are likely to play a significant role in these initiatives. 

Just think about, the rise of culinary interest among younger generations, coupled with the popularity of hand-held foods, is driving customer engagement in exciting new ways. As the Grocerant Guru®, I look forward to seeing how these trends continue to evolve and shape the future of the food industry and if they will continue to drive customer migration from sector to sector

For international corporate presentations, regional chain presentations, educational forums, or keynotes contact: Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions.  His extensive experience as a multi-unit restaurant operator, consultant, brand / product positioning expert, and public speaking will leave success clues for all. For more information visit GrocerantGuru.com, FoodserviceSolutions.US or call 1-253-759-7869

For international corporate presentations, regional chain presentations, educational forums, or keynotes contact: Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions.  His extensive experience as a multi-unit restaurant operator, consultant, brand / product positioning expert, and public speaking will leave success clues for all. For more information visit GrocerantGuru.com, FoodserviceSolutions.US or call 1-253-759-7869

Domino’s Garnering the Attention of Gen Z and Millennials with the power of "dough-nation".

 

Steven Johnson the Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®, is thrilled to share this news about Domino's, a restaurant company that's setting a new standard in corporate philanthropy. Domino’s has pledged to raise a staggering $300 million by 2034 for St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, marking the largest financial commitment ever made to a children's hospital by a corporation or private entity. 

This announcement, made by Domino's CEO Russell Weiner at the company's 2024 Worldwide Rally in Las Vegas, is a testament to the company's dedication to making a difference. This commitment will ensure that families of St. Jude patients can focus on their child's recovery, without worrying about bills for treatment, travel, housing, or food. 

Domino's "Hungry for More" growth strategy is not just about expanding their business, but also about creating more opportunities for their customers to contribute to St. Jude. Since 2004, Domino's has enabled millions of customers to donate small amounts, with this new pledge, Domino’s aims to raise the total amount raise to 300 million by 2034.  

This approach aligns with the philosophy of St. Jude founder Danny Thomas, who believed in the power of many people each giving a little. Dominos embodies this spirit through their participation in the annual St. Jude Thanks and Giving® campaign and by offering customers the option to round up their change to support St. Jude's mission. 

Richard C. Shadyac Jr., president and CEO of ALSAC, the fundraising and awareness organization for St. Jude, expressed immense gratitude for Domino's historic pledge. This commitment is a significant step in Domino's longstanding partnership with St. Jude, helping to advance research and treatment for childhood cancer and other life-threatening diseases. 

This pledge follows the opening of The Domino's Village in September 2023, a six-story housing facility for patients and their families, funded by Domino's as part of a 10-year, $100 million commitment to St. Jude announced in 2020. 

Gen Z and Millennials, known for their commitment to social causes, are likely to appreciate Domino's efforts. Companies that are doing good things, like Domino's, are attracting these younger generations who value corporate social responsibility. Domino's is not just delivering pizzas; they're delivering hope and making a real difference in the world. This is a company that truly understands the power of "dough-nation". 

For international corporate presentations, regional chain presentations, educational forums, or keynotes contact: Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions.  His extensive experience as a multi-unit restaurant operator, consultant, brand / product positioning expert, and public speaking will leave success clues for all. For more information visit GrocerantGuru.com, FoodserviceSolutions.US or call 1-253-759-7869