When Growth Stalls: MOD Pizza, Outback Steakhouse & Applebee’s Search for a Way Back

 

The restaurant industry is unforgiving. Menu inflation, labor costs, shifting consumer expectations, and delivery-first competitors have left many brands scrambling according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®. Three familiar names — MOD Pizza, Outback Steakhouse, and Applebee’s — once rode strong growth curves but now face the hard reality of sales declines, shrinking unit counts, and customer drift.

Here’s a look at what happened, backed by data, and what they’re doing to come back.

 

Growth to Shrinkage: The Hard Numbers

·       MOD Pizza

o   2023: ~553 units, $699M in U.S. sales.

o   2024: sales down ~13%+, unit count slipping.

o   Action: Selling off corporate stores and moving to a franchise-first model to improve unit economics.

·       Outback Steakhouse (Bloomin’ Brands)

o   Parent company portfolio: ~1,450 restaurants.

o   Multiple quarters of negative same-store sales in 2023–24.

o   Action: Closed ~41 underperforming locations, simplifying menus by 10–20% of items, focusing back on steak & core offerings.

·       Applebee’s (Dine Brands)

o   ~1,500–1,600 U.S. units, slowly declining.

o   Q4 2024 comps down 4.7%, annual comps negative.

o   Action: Repossessed 47+ struggling franchise units, launching remodels (“Lookin’ Good”), testing dual-brand Applebee’s + IHOP sites, tightening promo strategy.

 

Where They Lost Their Way

1.       Value Confusion – Too many shifting promotions diluted trust. Guests want clear everyday value, not promo fatigue.

2.       Menu Bloat – Outback admitted as much, cutting 10–20% of menu items after operational complexity hurt execution.

3.       Franchise / Corporate Inconsistency – MOD and Applebee’s both saw performance gaps as corporate stores were sold or repossessed. Customers notice uneven service more than executives think.

4.       New Competition – Fast casual pizza, delivery-first brands, and grocerant options (ready-to-eat meals at retail) blurred category boundaries.

 

The Comeback Plays

·       MOD Pizza is refranchising, banking on local operators to sharpen execution. Success depends on strict franchise standards.

·       Outback Steakhouse is pruning weaker stores and doubling down on its hero items — steak, Bloomin’ Onion, Aussie hospitality — while streamlining ops.

·       Applebee’s is leaning into remodels, sharper marketing, and a clearer value ladder to reframe itself as a dependable neighborhood choice.

Each strategy is about discipline: fewer, better items; tighter value messaging; and renewed consistency.

 

Insights from the Grocerant Guru®

1.       Focus on Hero Items. Consumers remember three things per daypart. Execute those flawlessly and consistently.

2.       Stabilize Value Architecture. Everyday value builds traffic; promos should be occasional margin plays, not the norm.

3.       Digitally Driven Consistency. Loyalty apps, mobile ordering, and pickup execution now shape guest loyalty more than TV ads.

4.       Local Tests, National Scale. Let franchisees experiment in controlled pilots. If they work, scale fast but keep standards tight.

 

Think About This

MOD Pizza, Outback, and Applebee’s show us the dangers of brand drift: unchecked menu expansion, promo fatigue, and inconsistent execution. Their recovery will hinge not on flashy campaigns but on operational discipline, value clarity, and renewed consumer focus.

For operators and marketers alike, the lesson is clear: know your core, execute it relentlessly, and don’t chase every trend at the expense of brand trust.

Elevate Your Brand with Expert Insights

For corporate presentations, regional chain strategies, educational forums, or keynote speaking, Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, delivers actionable insights that fuel success.

With deep experience in restaurant operations, brand positioning, and strategic consulting, Steven provides valuable takeaways that inspire and drive results.

💡 Visit GrocerantGuru.com or FoodserviceSolutions.US
📞 Call 1-253-759-7869

Outback is Out-front with Virtual Chicken

 

Restaurants are manufacturing facilities with a service component that is the most inviting within the manufacturing sector. If success leaves clues and it does Bloomin’ Brands is expanding its restaurant brands reach leveraging its excess manufacturing capacity to sell more fresh food in more locations according to Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

Bloomin Brands has been an inclusive grocerant niche participant for over 10 years constantly developing multichannel messaging, that is interactive and participatory. Brand managers have rolled out private label wine, clothing, and takeout menus extending each brands reach.

Now, Bloomin Brands is expanding a virtual chicken brand and taking its Aussie Grill virtual as well. Having already partnered with Uber Eats and DoorDash, on top of its own fleet of drivers, edifying the technology and physical plant to quickly shift to more off-premise business, they once again solidify its industry leading position.

Michael Stutts, the company’s chief customer officer when speaking on its multi-channel approach “We were very heartened to see that our investments had paid off,” Yes, the pandemic has move forward the growth strategy that Bloomin’ had laid out, and now that vision has become a reality.

Leveraging it manufacturing infrastructure virtual concepts can become stand-alone brands that it can run out of existing Outback and Carrabba’s kitchens for takeout and delivery only.  That is a success clue that others chain restaurants will quickly pick-up on and try to duplicate according to Johnson.

The first virtual venture is Tender Shack, which offers chicken tenders, fries and cookies exclusively through DoorDash. Bloomin’ had been kicking the idea around pre-pandemic, but fast-tracked it amid the crisis: From kickoff to first tenders sold, Tender Shack was developed in 49 days, according to Stutts.  

Now get this, after a test of the virtual concept last fall, Tender Shack is now in more than 200 locations and exceeding expectations. Once again we arrive at operational efficiencies the graduate school mantra, from 2000 – 2015.

What does this mean, it means that food marketers will become the most important aggregator of consumer data points driving service, menus, and distribution with relevance. How is your brand positioning your infrastructure and marketing assets to garner incremental business?

For international corporate presentations, regional chain presentations, educational forums, or keynotes contact: Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions.  His extensive experience as a multi-unit restaurant operator, consultant, brand / product positioning expert and public speaking will leave success clues for all. For more information visit GrocerantGuru.com, FoodserviceSolutions.US or call 1-253-759-7869