Starbucks is Losing Its Mojo: Why the Future of Beverages is Brewing Beyond Coffee

 

For decades, Starbucks was the gold standard in coffee culture. They didn’t just sell coffee—they sold identity, community, and ritual according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based foodservice Solutions®.  But today, cracks are showing, and the headwinds Starbucks faces are no longer just cyclical. They’re structural. Consumers are redefining what a beverage should do, and competitors—from smoothie shops to energy drink makers—are seizing the moment.

Let’s start with one bold example.

Smoothie King Just Hijacked Starbucks’ Loyalty Program

On National Coffee Day, Smoothie King pulled a daring stunt: show your Starbucks Rewards stars and get a free 20oz high-protein coffee smoothie. Yes, they accepted Starbucks’ own loyalty currency to lure away its best customers. Each blend packed 30+ grams of protein, proving that coffee today isn’t just about taste or ritual—it’s about function, fitness, and fueling up.

That wasn’t just a promotion. It was a direct shot at Starbucks’ cultural dominance. Smoothie King is saying: We’ve been doing protein-forward beverages since 1973. Starbucks is just catching up.

And they’re not alone.

Competition Brewing on All Sides

The undercurrent is clear: Starbucks’ grip on beverage leadership is loosening. Here are three more fronts where rivals are gaining ground:

·       Dunkin’s Value Play
Dunkin is unapologetically practical—bundling coffee and breakfast deals at prices that undercut Starbucks. In an inflation-sensitive market, that value-driven positioning is magnetic.

·       Panera’s Unlimited Sip Club
With its all-you-can-drink subscription, Panera has created a daily ritual that locks customers into their ecosystem. Starbucks’ rewards app is powerful, but it feels increasingly like work compared to the simplicity of a monthly pass.

·       Celsius and the Energy Drink Set
Young consumers aren’t pledging allegiance to coffee—they’re reaching for performance drinks, functional hydration, and pre-workout energy. Celsius, Alani Nu, and others are growing double-digits while Starbucks is fighting to hold traffic.

This isn’t just competition—it’s evolution.

Starbucks’ Internal Struggles Compound the Problem

The external threats are tough enough, but Starbucks is also grappling with its own issues:

1.       Labor unrest and unionization battles have tarnished its brand halo as a “progressive employer.”

2.       China, once the growth engine, is sputtering, with uneven consumer recovery and rising local competition.

3.       Loyalty fatigue is real. Starbucks’ app feels bloated with promos that frustrate as much as they delight, especially when competitors are delivering cleaner, sharper value.

Put bluntly: Starbucks risks becoming the Blockbuster Video of beverages if it doesn’t evolve.

The Grocerant Guru®: Four Clues to the Future of Beverages

Industry insider Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, offers a sharper lens on where the beverage category is heading:

1.       Functionality is non-negotiable. Protein, hydration, gut health, immunity—consumers now expect beverages to do something for them, not just taste good.

2.       Dayparts are dissolving. Coffee is no longer a morning-only habit. Consumers want “anytime” beverages that fuel work, workouts, and even wind-downs.

3.       Subscriptions beat complexity. Loyalty is about habit and ease. Panera proved it. Starbucks risks falling behind if its digital ecosystem feels more like a math problem than a reward.

4.       Cross-category competition is exploding. Starbucks isn’t just competing with Dunkin or Peet’s. Its rivals now sit on grocery shelves—energy drinks, kombucha, sparkling adaptogens, bubble tea. The playing field is bigger, and the rules have changed.

Final Pour

The future of beverages is moving beyond coffee, and Starbucks can’t just double down on pumpkin spice to fix it. The next generation of drinkers wants functionality, affordability, and relevance. Smoothie King, Dunkin, Panera, and even Celsius are carving away at the market Starbucks once owned.

If Starbucks doesn’t adapt, the brand risks becoming a legacy player in a marketplace that no longer revolves around coffee cups—but around lifestyle beverages that fuel the body and fit seamlessly into daily life.

The world’s biggest coffee chain must now answer a bigger question: Is it a coffee company, or a beverage company?

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What We’re Eating on October 31 (and Craving After)

 

Halloween has become one of the biggest spending holidays in America—and this year is bigger than ever. According to the National Retail Federation, Americans are expected to spend a record $13.1 billion on Halloween this year. That’s up from $11.6 billion last year, and even more than the previous record of $12.2 billion set in 2023.

So, Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions® asked where does all that money go? Costumes and decorations are big, but the real star of the night is food—especially candy. Let’s find out.

Candy Rules the Night

Halloween and candy go hand-in-hand. This year, candy sales alone are expected to hit $3.9 billion.

Fun fact: The average trick-or-treater can haul in 3,500–7,000 calories worth of candy in just a couple of hours! That’s more than triple what most adults need in a day. No wonder parents often set “trade-in” bowls at home so kids can swap candy for toys, books, or healthier snacks.

What’s on the Menu Halloween Night

Of course, it’s not just candy. Whether you’re passing out treats or hosting a party, people are also reaching for easy, shareable foods like:

·       Pizza – one of the top five pizza delivery days of the year.

·       Pumpkin-shaped cookies and cupcakes with spooky designs.

·       Savory snacks like nachos, popcorn mixes, and cheesy dips (because we can’t live on sugar alone).

Tip: If you’re hosting a party, try a mix of sweet and savory snacks so your guests don’t burn out on sugar too fast.

The Week After Halloween: Time to Reset

After a night (or week) of too many peanut butter cups, most of us are ready for something a little lighter. Post-Halloween cravings often shift toward:

·       Comfort foods like soups, stews, and chili (perfect for chilly November nights).

·       Protein-packed meals like rotisserie chicken, hearty salads, or grab-and-go sandwiches.

·       Better-for-you snacks such as fruit cups, yogurt, or trail mix to replace the candy stash.

Fun fact: Many grocery stores see a bump in rotisserie chicken sales in the days right after Halloween—families want something quick, filling, and not loaded with sugar.

Insights from the Grocerant Guru®

The Grocerant Guru® says it best: “Halloween is about indulgence, but the week after is about recovery and convenience. The trick is offering consumers what they actually want in that moment.”

Here’s what that means for stores and restaurants:

·       Before and during Halloween: Offer bundles like pizza + soda + cookie kits, or “snack packs” that pair candy with chips or drinks.

·       After Halloween: Spotlight healthier meal deals—soup and salad combos, family chicken dinners, or even “candy detox” snack packs.

·       All season long: Highlight value. With nearly 80% of shoppers expecting higher prices this year, deals and smart bundles really matter.

Think About This

Halloween might be powered by chocolate and candy corn, but what really matters is how food connects us—to our families, our friends, and even our neighbors. Celebrate with sweets, balance with comfort food afterward, and look for creative meal deals that make life easier.

That way, Halloween becomes more than just a sugar rush—it’s a season of sharing, indulging, and then resetting together.

 Top 5 Halloween Foods vs. Top 5 Post-Halloween Cravings

Halloween Night Favorites

1.       Candy, candy, candy ($3.9B spent this year!)

2.       Pizza (one of the top 5 delivery nights of the year)

3.       Spooky cookies & cupcakes

4.       Popcorn mixes & nachos

5.       Sugary drinks & punch

The Week After Halloween

1.       Soups & stews (comfort in a bowl)

2.       Rotisserie chicken & protein meals

3.       Hearty salads & veggie sides

4.       Better-for-you snacks (fruit, yogurt, trail mix)

5.       Sandwiches & easy family dinners

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When Growth Stalls: MOD Pizza, Outback Steakhouse & Applebee’s Search for a Way Back

 

The restaurant industry is unforgiving. Menu inflation, labor costs, shifting consumer expectations, and delivery-first competitors have left many brands scrambling according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®. Three familiar names — MOD Pizza, Outback Steakhouse, and Applebee’s — once rode strong growth curves but now face the hard reality of sales declines, shrinking unit counts, and customer drift.

Here’s a look at what happened, backed by data, and what they’re doing to come back.

 

Growth to Shrinkage: The Hard Numbers

·       MOD Pizza

o   2023: ~553 units, $699M in U.S. sales.

o   2024: sales down ~13%+, unit count slipping.

o   Action: Selling off corporate stores and moving to a franchise-first model to improve unit economics.

·       Outback Steakhouse (Bloomin’ Brands)

o   Parent company portfolio: ~1,450 restaurants.

o   Multiple quarters of negative same-store sales in 2023–24.

o   Action: Closed ~41 underperforming locations, simplifying menus by 10–20% of items, focusing back on steak & core offerings.

·       Applebee’s (Dine Brands)

o   ~1,500–1,600 U.S. units, slowly declining.

o   Q4 2024 comps down 4.7%, annual comps negative.

o   Action: Repossessed 47+ struggling franchise units, launching remodels (“Lookin’ Good”), testing dual-brand Applebee’s + IHOP sites, tightening promo strategy.

 

Where They Lost Their Way

1.       Value Confusion – Too many shifting promotions diluted trust. Guests want clear everyday value, not promo fatigue.

2.       Menu Bloat – Outback admitted as much, cutting 10–20% of menu items after operational complexity hurt execution.

3.       Franchise / Corporate Inconsistency – MOD and Applebee’s both saw performance gaps as corporate stores were sold or repossessed. Customers notice uneven service more than executives think.

4.       New Competition – Fast casual pizza, delivery-first brands, and grocerant options (ready-to-eat meals at retail) blurred category boundaries.

 

The Comeback Plays

·       MOD Pizza is refranchising, banking on local operators to sharpen execution. Success depends on strict franchise standards.

·       Outback Steakhouse is pruning weaker stores and doubling down on its hero items — steak, Bloomin’ Onion, Aussie hospitality — while streamlining ops.

·       Applebee’s is leaning into remodels, sharper marketing, and a clearer value ladder to reframe itself as a dependable neighborhood choice.

Each strategy is about discipline: fewer, better items; tighter value messaging; and renewed consistency.

 

Insights from the Grocerant Guru®

1.       Focus on Hero Items. Consumers remember three things per daypart. Execute those flawlessly and consistently.

2.       Stabilize Value Architecture. Everyday value builds traffic; promos should be occasional margin plays, not the norm.

3.       Digitally Driven Consistency. Loyalty apps, mobile ordering, and pickup execution now shape guest loyalty more than TV ads.

4.       Local Tests, National Scale. Let franchisees experiment in controlled pilots. If they work, scale fast but keep standards tight.

 

Think About This

MOD Pizza, Outback, and Applebee’s show us the dangers of brand drift: unchecked menu expansion, promo fatigue, and inconsistent execution. Their recovery will hinge not on flashy campaigns but on operational discipline, value clarity, and renewed consumer focus.

For operators and marketers alike, the lesson is clear: know your core, execute it relentlessly, and don’t chase every trend at the expense of brand trust.

Elevate Your Brand with Expert Insights

For corporate presentations, regional chain strategies, educational forums, or keynote speaking, Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, delivers actionable insights that fuel success.

With deep experience in restaurant operations, brand positioning, and strategic consulting, Steven provides valuable takeaways that inspire and drive results.

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