Chili’s Takes the Fight Beyond Burgers: Why the Restaurant Industry Needs to Stop Thinking in Silos

 

There is an important lesson emerging from Chili’s that reaches far beyond burgers, chicken sandwiches, tacos or even casual dining according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

Consumers do not live in restaurant industry silos—and neither should restaurant marketers.

For decades, the restaurant industry has divided itself into categories: quick-service restaurants, fast casual, casual dining, pizza, Mexican, chicken, burgers and convenience stores. But consumers do not wake up in the morning thinking, “Today I am going to purchase from the casual-dining segment.”

They think:

“What do I want to eat, how much do I want to spend, how quickly do I want it, and what am I going to get for my money?”

That distinction is becoming increasingly important.

And Chili’s appears to understand it.

At Brinker International’s September 17, 2026 Investor Day, Chili’s executives Kevin Hochman, president and CEO of Brinker International, and George Felix, EVP and CMO, described a strategy that began by attacking the perceived value gap between casual dining and fast food—and is now looking toward Mexican QSR as another category where Chili’s believes it can compete.

From the perspective of the Grocerant Guru®, this isn't simply a story about Chili’s going after Taco Bell.

It is a story about the continuing collapse of restaurant industry silos.

The Consumer Doesn't Care About Your Industry Category

In 2024, Chili’s made its intentions very clear.

The brand introduced its Big Smasher burger as part of its $10.99 3 For Me platform, explicitly positioning the offer against fast-food burgers. Chili’s said the Big Smasher contained twice the beef of a Big Mac, while the $10.99 meal included the burger, fries, bottomless chips and salsa, and a bottomless non-alcoholic beverage.

The important marketing idea wasn't simply “we have a burger.”

The message was:

“Compare what you get for your money.”

That is a fundamentally different way to market food.

Chili’s subsequently extended the strategy into lunch. Its 2024 3 For Lunch platform offered 11 combinations beginning at $10.99, including burgers, chicken sandwiches, chicken tenders and other familiar lunch choices.

Then came 2025.

Chili’s introduced the Big QP burger with 85% more beef than a Quarter Pounder with Cheese, again putting the comparison squarely into the consumer's frame of reference. The $10.99 3 For Me included the burger, fries, bottomless chips and salsa, and a bottomless drink.

And the results suggest that consumers were paying attention.

For fiscal 2025, Chili’s comparable restaurant sales increased 25.3%, with traffic up 16.0%. In the fourth quarter alone, comparable sales increased 23.7%, including a 16.3% increase in traffic.

Those numbers matter because they demonstrate something more important than a successful advertising campaign:

Consumers were willing to change where they spent their restaurant dollars.

Then Came Chicken

In April 2026, Chili’s moved beyond burgers.

The company introduced the Big Crispy chicken sandwich to its $10.99 3 For Me platform and explicitly compared it with fast-food chicken sandwiches. Chili’s said its average Big Crispy filet was more than 80% larger than the average McCrispy breaded filet in its local study.

Again, the strategy wasn't:

“We are a casual-dining restaurant selling chicken.”

It was:

“Here is what you get for your money. Now compare.”

That is Price Value Service Equilibrium in action.

Price alone isn't value.

Value is the relationship between:

Price + Quality + Service + Experience + Portability = Consumer Value

A $9 meal isn't automatically a better value than a $12 meal.

If the $12 meal provides substantially more food, better ingredients, table service, a comfortable environment and an experience consumers enjoy, the consumer may perceive the $12 purchase as the better value.

That is exactly the battleground Chili's has entered.

Chili's Says Mexican QSR Is Next

At the 2026 Investor Day, Brinker executives discussed Mexican QSR as a potential future growth category.

Importantly, this is not being positioned as an immediate rollout. George Felix described Mexican QSR as a future opportunity, potentially about two years out, while pointing to existing Chili's capabilities in quesadillas and fajitas. Executives discussed potential extensions such as Chicken Crisper tacos, upgraded steak quesadillas and other Mexican-inspired menu applications.

That is strategically significant.

Chili's isn't starting from zero.

It already has:

·       Chicken Crispers

·       Fajitas

·       Quesadillas

·       Mexican-inspired menu items

·       Familiar proteins

·       Sauces and flavor profiles

·       A strong restaurant experience

·       A value platform

·       A marketing system built around comparison

The opportunity is therefore less about entering Mexican food and more about recombining existing assets into new consumer occasions.

That is something the Grocerant Guru® has been calling Mix-and-Match Meal Component Bundling for years.

Take a proven protein.

Take a proven sauce.

Take a familiar format.

Take a recognized brand.

Bundle the components.

Create a new occasion.

Then give the consumer a reason to choose it.

This Is Where the Silos Begin to Break

The restaurant industry has traditionally organized itself around categories.

Burger restaurants compete with burger restaurants.

Chicken restaurants compete with chicken restaurants.

Mexican restaurants compete with Mexican restaurants.

Casual dining competes with casual dining.

But the consumer sees none of those walls.

The consumer sees one wallet.

And that wallet may be deciding between:

·       a burger at McDonald's,

·       tacos at Taco Bell,

·       chicken at Chick-fil-A,

·       a meal at Chili's,

·       pizza for the family,

·       a prepared meal from a supermarket,

·       food from a convenience store,

·       or something delivered to the home.

That's the real competitive landscape.

The consumer's stomach is the marketplace.

The Chili's Numbers Tell an Interesting Story

Chili's fiscal 2024 performance already showed the beginning of the shift.

In fiscal 2024, Chili's comparable restaurant sales increased 7.4%, while traffic declined only 0.6%, with the company specifically citing the Big Smasher launch and value-oriented advertising as traffic drivers in the fourth quarter.

Then fiscal 2025 accelerated dramatically.

Chili's comparable sales increased 25.3%, with traffic increasing 16.0%.

By fiscal 2026, Brinker reported that Chili's had delivered five consecutive years of same-store sales growth, with cumulative growth of 71% over that period. Fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter comparable sales increased 5.6% at Chili's.

Those results help explain why Brinker is now talking about expanding the concept rather than simply defending it.

At Investor Day, Brinker established longer-term targets calling for 4% to 6% annual revenue growth and 2% to 3% annual unit growth, with a goal of reaching approximately 30 new restaurants annually by fiscal 2029.

Value Is Becoming More Than a Discount

This is perhaps the most important lesson.

Chili's executives are not describing value as simply having the lowest price.

They describe an everyday low-price strategy based on price certainty, more food for the money and the overall experience.

The company's executives said the Chili's entry price points can be available without requiring consumers to find a coupon, visit at a specific hour or use a special promotion. They also described the average Chili's check for comparable occasions as roughly $3 to $4 below competitors in casual dining.

That is a very different proposition from traditional promotional marketing.

“Come in today because the coupon expires tonight” creates urgency.

“You know what you're going to get for your money every day” creates trust.

For today's consumer, that distinction matters.

And This Is Where Taco Bell Enters the Conversation

The question isn't really whether Chili's can become Taco Bell.

It doesn't need to.

Nor does Taco Bell need to become Chili's.

The more interesting question is whether consumers will increasingly compare them on the same occasion.

If a consumer wants tacos, the consumer can evaluate Taco Bell.

But that same consumer can now ask:

What does Chili's offer me for the same money?

That is the competitive disruption.

Chili's executives have already indicated that the company intends to make comparisons visible by showing consumers the difference in portion size, ingredients and experience.

And that is exactly how category boundaries begin to disappear.

The Bigger Opportunity Is the Occasion

The restaurant industry should stop asking:

“Who is our competitor?”

It should start asking:

“What other food occasions can steal our customer's dollar?”

That is a much larger question.

A burger chain isn't only competing against burger chains.

A Mexican QSR isn't only competing against Mexican QSRs.

A casual-dining restaurant isn't only competing against casual dining.

They are all competing for share of stomach, share of wallet and share of occasion.

Brinker executives made essentially this point at Investor Day, noting that Chili's can source guests from across the restaurant landscape rather than from one specific category.

That is the future of foodservice marketing.

The Grocerant Guru® Perspective

I have long argued that there are no silos in the consumer's mind.

Consumers don't care whether the food industry calls something QSR, fast casual, casual dining, convenience retail, grocery prepared foods or a restaurant.

They care about what's for dinner.

They care about what's for lunch.

They care about how much it costs.

They care about how much food they receive.

They care about quality.

They care about speed.

They care about service.

And increasingly, they care about whether the experience is worth leaving home for.

Chili's is demonstrating what happens when a restaurant stops defining its competition by industry classification and starts defining competition by consumer value perception.

The next phase may be Mexican QSR.

But the larger opportunity is much bigger.

It is the consumer.

And the consumer has never recognized the silos in the first place.

Three Insights from the Grocerant Guru®

1. Stop defining competition by category.

The restaurant industry needs to stop asking, “Who operates in our category?” and start asking, “Who is competing for this consumer's next meal?” That includes restaurants, grocery prepared foods, convenience stores, delivery, takeout and increasingly every retailer capable of selling Ready-2-Eat or Heat-N-Eat food.

2. Price gets attention—but value wins the occasion.

Chili's lesson is not simply that $10.99 is powerful. The lesson is that what the consumer receives for $10.99 creates the value proposition. Food quantity, food quality, service, atmosphere, convenience and price must work together. That is the Price Value Service Equilibrium.

3. The future belongs to Mix-and-Match.

Chili's potential move into Mexican QSR demonstrates the power of using existing foodservice components in new ways. Chicken Crispers can become tacos. Fajita steak can become quesadillas. Sauces can create new flavor platforms. Existing ingredients can create new occasions.

That's Mix-and-Match Meal Component Bundling—and it is one of the most powerful ways to grow food sales without rebuilding the entire business from scratch.

The biggest lesson from Chili's isn't that casual dining is going after Mexican QSR.

The biggest lesson is that the consumer has already eliminated the silos. The smartest food marketers are simply catching up.

Tap into the Foodservice Solutions® team for greater understanding of New Electricity or for a Grocerant Program Assessment, Grocerant ScoreCard, or for product positioning or placement assistance, or call our Grocerant Guru®.  Since 1991 www.FoodserviceSolutions.us  of Tacoma, WA has been the global leader in the Grocerant niche. Contact: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or 253-759-7869

 

What’s Up with Red Robin? How Legacy Brands Lose Relevance—and How Some Win It Back

 

Once upon a time, Red Robin was the place for family dinners, high school hangouts, and weekend burgers. Founded in 1969 in Seattle, the brand became iconic in the 1990s and early 2000s for its fun, full-service dining model and the unforgettable jingle: “Red Robin… YUM!”

At its peak in 2015, Red Robin had over 530 locations. Fast forward to 2024, and it has closed nearly 130 restaurants, and foot traffic is down over 25% compared to 2019. In an era where fast casuals like Shake Shack and grocerants like Wegmans' Market Café are thriving, Red Robin’s struggles signal a bigger issue: customer relevance lost to internal drift according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

Instead of doubling down on consumer needs—speed, digital access, flavor innovation—Red Robin focused on cutting costs, closing locations, and trying to fix its kitchen throughput. It prioritized operations over experience and efficiency over evolution.

But this isn’t a new story. Let’s look at some historical context.

 

Other Brands That Lost Relevance—and Vanished

🔻 Howard Johnson’s

Once the largest restaurant chain in America with over 1,000 locations, Howard Johnson’s was the roadside brand of mid-century America. It failed to evolve with consumer tastes in the 1980s and 90s, falling victim to faster, fresher fast-food competition. By 2017, the last restaurant had closed.

🔻 Chi-Chi’s

A Mexican-American chain that peaked in the 1980s with over 200 locations, Chi-Chi’s failed to keep up with authentic, modern Mexican food trends. A hepatitis outbreak and brand stagnation sealed its fate. By 2004, it was gone in the U.S., living on only as a grocery-store salsa label.

 

Brands That Lost Relevance… Then Came Back

Domino’s Pizza

In the early 2000s, Domino’s had a terrible reputation for quality. But by 2010, it radically overhauled its recipe, leaned into self-deprecating honesty, and launched a digital ordering transformation. It became a tech-forward pizza chain with over 75% of orders coming digitally by 2022, and saw stock gains of over 3,000% over a decade.

Panera Bread

After years of flat growth, Panera embraced the grocerant ethos—adding delivery, curbside, loyalty integration, and menu customization. By 2019, it launched Panera 2.0, reemphasizing wellness, convenience, and mobile-first ordering. Today it’s one of the most successful fast-casual players in the U.S.

 

Red Robin's Turning Point—and a Path Forward

Red Robin didn’t fall because Americans stopped loving burgers. It fell because the context in which we eat burgers changed, and Red Robin didn’t.

People now want:

·       Meals in 12 minutes, not 45

·       Food that travels well, tastes clean, and feels modern

·       Digital ordering, delivery options, loyalty rewards

·       Less meat, more global flavor, and customizable portions

Red Robin stuck with a 1998 playbook in a 2025 marketplace.

 

Five Strategies to Regain Relevance (Grocerant Guru's Playbook)

1.       Recenter the Brand Around the Customer Journey
Look at every touchpoint—app, curbside, dine-in—and ask: Is this built around how the customer lives, eats, and thinks in 2025? If not, rebuild it.

2.       Embed Grocerant Innovation
Red Robin could easily introduce gourmet burger meal kits, heat-and-eat sides, or cold case “Fries & Shake” packs in local groceries. Extend the brand beyond four walls.

3.       Refresh the Menu with Function and Flavor
Add plant-forward options, regional flair, and wellness-conscious items. But don’t lose your core—reboot it. Bring back a reimagined Banzai Burger or Whiskey River BBQ Bowl with premium flair.

4.       Make Experience as Scalable as the Meal
Guests want emotion with their transaction. Whether it’s through branded packaging, birthday specials, or mobile check-in games, build in memorable, low-friction touchpoints.

5.       Let Technology Serve, Not Distract
Don’t digitize for the sake of it. Use tech to streamline ordering, re-engage lapsed users, and personalize deals—not to replace hospitality.

 

Think About This: Relevance is a Moving Target

Legacy brands like Red Robin have all the raw ingredients: brand equity, nostalgia, real estate. But those ingredients don’t cook themselves. Without constant reinvention around the customer, even the most iconic names can disappear.

The good news? Comebacks are possible. But they require bold action, clear focus, and the willingness to stop looking inward—and start listening to the people on the other side of the plate.

Gain a Competitive Edge with a Grocerant ScoreCard

Unlock new opportunities with a Grocerant ScoreCard, designed to optimize product positioning, placement, and consumer engagement.

Since 1991, Foodservice Solutions® has been the global leader in the Grocerant niche—helping brands identify high-growth strategies that resonate with modern consumers.

📞 Call 253-759-7869 or 📩 Email Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us