How Chili’s Is Cooking Up a Hot Streak in a Cool Economy

 

In a casual dining landscape where many brands are still trying to find their footing, Chili’s is striding confidently—steak fajita platter in one hand, frozen margarita in the other. The Dallas-based chain has now posted five straight quarters of double-digit same-store sales growth, culminating in a 24% jump in Q4 fueled by 16% traffic growth. That’s on top of last year’s 15% gain—meaning a two-year growth of 39% that leaves competitors like Applebee’s and Red Robin playing catch-up.

What’s the secret sauce? Let’s break it down through the Tacoma, WA based Steven Johnson, Foodservice Solutions®, Grocerant Guru® lens: Price, Value, Service, and Social Equilibrium.

 

Price & Value

The engine driving this comeback is Chili’s $10.99 “3 for Me” value meal—an anchor offering that’s both inflation-proof and appetite-friendly. By pairing this core deal with strategically priced upsell items—like the Big QP Burger, ribs, and $10 frozen margaritas made with Patron—Chili’s manages to deliver perceived value without racing to the bottom on price. The numbers tell the story: even with broader economic pressure, guests are trading up, ordering nearly 5% more high-ticket items and tacking on apps or desserts.

 

Service & Operational Excellence

Value brings them in; service keeps them coming back. Since CEO Kevin Hochman’s turnaround began three years ago, Chili’s has:

·       Invested $160 million more in labor than in 2022.

·       Shrunk its menu by 25% to focus on core, well-executed items.

·       Reached record-high food quality scores and slashed “guests with a problem” to a mere 2.3%.

Add to that tech upgrades—like redesigned server tablets to reduce order-entry frustration—and operational best practices lifted from the brand’s top-performing locations, and you’ve got a service model that scales.

 

Social Equilibrium

Chili’s has hit a rare balance: it knows how to go viral without becoming a gimmick. The Triple Dipper appetizer found TikTok fame last year (hello, cheese pulls), but the brand didn’t stop at social buzz. It’s now anchoring national TV campaigns with that same product, turning fleeting trends into long-term menu momentum. The result? 15% of transactions now include a Triple Dipper—a staggering attachment rate for a casual-dining app.

 

Consumer Focus: Winning Back the Old, Welcoming the New

One of the most underestimated parts of Chili’s success story is how it’s bridging the gap between legacy loyalists and first-time visitors.

For longtime customers, Chili’s is reestablishing trust by bringing back the hits—ribs worthy of the old jingle, burgers built to rival fast-food icons, and ingredient upgrades that feel like a commitment to quality, not cost-cutting. These guests remember the “glory days” and are coming back to see that Chili’s has recaptured its stride.

For new customers, Chili’s is making itself relevant through value-driven entry points, social-media-fueled curiosity, and upgraded in-restaurant experiences. Gen Z and Millennials may not have grown up with the Baby Back Ribs ad, but they’re responding to Instagram-worthy plating, TikTok challenges, and the allure of a big-brand-quality burger in a casual dining setting.

The result is a multi-generational dining experience that blends nostalgia with novelty—a combination that’s rare in casual dining today.

 

The Nostalgia Play

In turbulent times, smart brands reach back to the familiar. Chili’s is leveraging legacy assets like its ’90s “Baby Back Ribs” jingle and classic menu anchors. Why does this work? Four reasons:

1.       Emotional Comfort – Familiar flavors and jingles trigger warm memories, reassuring consumers during uncertain periods.

2.       Brand Trust – Legacy menu items remind guests the brand has stood the test of time, building confidence in quality and consistency.

3.       Low Cognitive Load – When budgets are tight, customers gravitate to “safe bets” they already know they’ll enjoy.

4.       Multi-Generational Appeal – Parents who loved Chili’s in the ’90s now bring their kids, creating a cycle of repeat visits and cross-generational loyalty.

 

The Grocerant Guru’s Three Recommendations for Chili’s Moving Forward

1.       Seasonal Legacy Revivals – Introduce limited-time throwback menu items tied to past campaigns or flavor profiles (think: “1997-style Baby Back Rib Sauce” month) to tap nostalgia spikes without menu clutter.

2.       Grocerant Extension Play – Bring Chili’s signature items—like Triple Dipper sauces or Big QP Burger seasoning—into retail grocery channels for at-home trial, driving both revenue and brand salience.

3.       Social-to-Table Challenges – Create interactive campaigns where guests can post their Chili’s “food moment” for a chance to have it featured on menus or in-store signage, blending user-generated content with real-world dining incentives.

 

The Road Ahead

With new nachos, a chicken sandwich relaunch, ingredient upgrades (50% thicker bacon—amen), and a plan to remodel stores by 2027, Chili’s is signaling it’s not coasting on this momentum. The chain expects mid-single-digit same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026—slower than the current fireworks, but still outpacing the industry.

For the casual dining world, Chili’s is proving a simple truth: price and value open the door, service and social connection keep the table full, and nostalgia done right can turn yesterday’s jingle into today’s cash register chime.

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What’s Up with Red Robin? How Legacy Brands Lose Relevance—and How Some Win It Back

 

Once upon a time, Red Robin was the place for family dinners, high school hangouts, and weekend burgers. Founded in 1969 in Seattle, the brand became iconic in the 1990s and early 2000s for its fun, full-service dining model and the unforgettable jingle: “Red Robin… YUM!”

At its peak in 2015, Red Robin had over 530 locations. Fast forward to 2024, and it has closed nearly 130 restaurants, and foot traffic is down over 25% compared to 2019. In an era where fast casuals like Shake Shack and grocerants like Wegmans' Market Café are thriving, Red Robin’s struggles signal a bigger issue: customer relevance lost to internal drift according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

Instead of doubling down on consumer needs—speed, digital access, flavor innovation—Red Robin focused on cutting costs, closing locations, and trying to fix its kitchen throughput. It prioritized operations over experience and efficiency over evolution.

But this isn’t a new story. Let’s look at some historical context.

 

Other Brands That Lost Relevance—and Vanished

🔻 Howard Johnson’s

Once the largest restaurant chain in America with over 1,000 locations, Howard Johnson’s was the roadside brand of mid-century America. It failed to evolve with consumer tastes in the 1980s and 90s, falling victim to faster, fresher fast-food competition. By 2017, the last restaurant had closed.

🔻 Chi-Chi’s

A Mexican-American chain that peaked in the 1980s with over 200 locations, Chi-Chi’s failed to keep up with authentic, modern Mexican food trends. A hepatitis outbreak and brand stagnation sealed its fate. By 2004, it was gone in the U.S., living on only as a grocery-store salsa label.

 

Brands That Lost Relevance… Then Came Back

Domino’s Pizza

In the early 2000s, Domino’s had a terrible reputation for quality. But by 2010, it radically overhauled its recipe, leaned into self-deprecating honesty, and launched a digital ordering transformation. It became a tech-forward pizza chain with over 75% of orders coming digitally by 2022, and saw stock gains of over 3,000% over a decade.

Panera Bread

After years of flat growth, Panera embraced the grocerant ethos—adding delivery, curbside, loyalty integration, and menu customization. By 2019, it launched Panera 2.0, reemphasizing wellness, convenience, and mobile-first ordering. Today it’s one of the most successful fast-casual players in the U.S.

 

Red Robin's Turning Point—and a Path Forward

Red Robin didn’t fall because Americans stopped loving burgers. It fell because the context in which we eat burgers changed, and Red Robin didn’t.

People now want:

·       Meals in 12 minutes, not 45

·       Food that travels well, tastes clean, and feels modern

·       Digital ordering, delivery options, loyalty rewards

·       Less meat, more global flavor, and customizable portions

Red Robin stuck with a 1998 playbook in a 2025 marketplace.

 

Five Strategies to Regain Relevance (Grocerant Guru's Playbook)

1.       Recenter the Brand Around the Customer Journey
Look at every touchpoint—app, curbside, dine-in—and ask: Is this built around how the customer lives, eats, and thinks in 2025? If not, rebuild it.

2.       Embed Grocerant Innovation
Red Robin could easily introduce gourmet burger meal kits, heat-and-eat sides, or cold case “Fries & Shake” packs in local groceries. Extend the brand beyond four walls.

3.       Refresh the Menu with Function and Flavor
Add plant-forward options, regional flair, and wellness-conscious items. But don’t lose your core—reboot it. Bring back a reimagined Banzai Burger or Whiskey River BBQ Bowl with premium flair.

4.       Make Experience as Scalable as the Meal
Guests want emotion with their transaction. Whether it’s through branded packaging, birthday specials, or mobile check-in games, build in memorable, low-friction touchpoints.

5.       Let Technology Serve, Not Distract
Don’t digitize for the sake of it. Use tech to streamline ordering, re-engage lapsed users, and personalize deals—not to replace hospitality.

 

Think About This: Relevance is a Moving Target

Legacy brands like Red Robin have all the raw ingredients: brand equity, nostalgia, real estate. But those ingredients don’t cook themselves. Without constant reinvention around the customer, even the most iconic names can disappear.

The good news? Comebacks are possible. But they require bold action, clear focus, and the willingness to stop looking inward—and start listening to the people on the other side of the plate.

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Can Beverages Invigorate Fast Food Sales?

 

In today’s fast-paced foodservice landscape, beverages are no longer just sidekicks, they’re strategic power players. From driving incremental revenue to shaping brand identity, drink innovation is emerging as a high-margin lever for fast-food chains seeking relevance, differentiation, and consumer loyalty. Especially as convenience stores, armed with fast, easy access and next-gen beverage lines—are drawing traffic away from traditional drive‑thru setups.

 

The Grocerant Guru’s Perspective

Steven Johnson, known as the Grocerant Guru®, shines a spotlight on how C‑stores are rewriting the playbook. He emphasizes that streamlined, photogenic beverage bundling and mix-and-match innovation not only drive margins, but also “soften price perceptions” via loyalty—challenging long-standing QSR combos.

Johnson specifically points out that “brand relevance is driven … by new food products in combination with new avenues of distribution”, such as Slurpee flavors and proprietary coffee blends that C‑stores are pushing hard. His belief? Fresh, innovative drinks, especially dispensed through quick-access formats, are blurring the lines between grocery, gas, and QSR.

 

C‑Store Advantage: Faster Than Your Drive‑Thru

Speed & convenience: Many consumers are abandoning fast‑food drive‑thrus due to slow service and long lines. C‑stores, however, are siphoning this traffic by offering swift grab-and-go options while filling the tank—no wait required. In fact, consumers view C‑stores on par with QSRs—59% would choose a meal there, and nearly 30% already do.

Massive foot growth: Since early 2021, foot traffic into C‑stores has surged nearly 59%, consistently outperforming quick-service restaurant traffic. In 2024 alone, C‑store foodservice grew 5%, projected to jump another 5.7% in 2025—outpacing QSR to QSR’s 4.1% growth.

Slurpee & Beverage Innovation

Portfolio hero: 7‑Eleven’s Slurpee isn’t just a slush—it’s a brand icon. With 14 million Slurpee’s consumed daily across 19 countries, it serves as proof of how a beverage can boost foot traffic, enhance brand equity, and ignite social media buzz.

Private-label momentum: The chain’s introduction of 7‑Select sparkling iced teas—like raspberry and peach—signals bold beverage innovation. These fruit-forward beverages grew 10.5% year‑over‑year in C‑store menu.

Photogenic & shareable: These photogenic liquid offerings are just the pull consumers crave—boosting in-store dwell time and generated organic buzz.

 

Global Strength & Cultural Impact

Worldwide reach: With over 85,000 stores in 20 countries, 7‑Eleven ensures Slurpee’s ubiquity—from North America to Asia—illustrating how beverages can transcend cultural markets.

Cultural rituals: Campaigns like "Bring Your Own Cup Day" and the annual Slurpee Day (July 11) reinforce consumer loyalty through participation and spectacle

 

Strategic Implications for Fast‑Food Chains

Rethink loyalty: As Johnson predicts, beverages—plus personalization, gamification, and exclusive flavors—will become the new currency of loyalty programs.

Adapt back‑of‑house setups: QSRs must reconfigure to include wellness and functional drink lines (e.g., adaptogen blends), or risk being outpaced by C‑stores.

Innovate sub‑brands: Expect beverage-first spinoffs, akin to fast-food chains planting their flags in the drive‑thru-only beverage world.

Optimize speed: Fast-food chains must dramatically improve drive‑thru efficiency to counteract the C‑store effect. Anything longer than two to three minutes can push customers into C‑store lanes.

 

Think about this

Beverages have transcended sidekick status—they’re becoming the linchpin of brand strategy, loyalty, and modern foodservice innovation. As Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, notes, C‑stores—acting as grocery, restaurant, and beverage hubs—are outpacing fast food in both speed and consumer experience. Chains that harness beverage power, rethink back‑end operations, and optimize speed will capture the next wave of growth.

Success Leaves Clues—Are You Ready to Find Yours?

One key insight that continues to drive success is this: "The consumer is dynamic, not static." This principle is the foundation of our work at Foodservice Solutions®, where Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, has been helping brands stay relevant in an ever-evolving market.

Want to strengthen your brand’s connection with today’s consumers? Let’s talk. Call 253-759-7869 for more information.

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