Americans Want Beef — But Flooding the Market Is Not the Solution

 

There is a very important consumer signal getting lost in the political and cattle-industry debate over beef: Americans want beef.

They want burgers. They want steak. They want tacos, meatballs, meatloaf and beef bowls. They want beef in the grocery deli, at the drive-thru, in restaurants and increasingly in Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat formats according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

The problem is that consumers are being asked to pay more for the beef they want at precisely the moment when the supply chain is trying to figure out how to rebuild the American cattle herd.

That makes President Donald Trump's proposal to waive tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of imported beef particularly interesting — and potentially disruptive.

The proposal would allow additional beef imports for grinding at prices roughly 25% below current market prices over the next 90 days. On the surface, that sounds like a consumer-friendly solution: increase supply, lower prices and give shoppers some relief.

But food retail is rarely that simple.

The Beef Problem Isn't Demand. It's Supply.

According to the information behind the proposal, the United States imported approximately 5.5 billion pounds of foreign beef last year, up 18% from 2024 and representing the highest import share in more than five decades.

The proposed 300,000 metric tons would add roughly another 12% in import volume.

That is a lot of beef to inject into a market that is already importing at record levels.

And here is where the Grocerant Guru® sees the disconnect:

The consumer problem is not that Americans suddenly stopped wanting beef. The consumer problem is that beef has become expensive.

July data provides an important clue. Fresh meat volume edged up just 0.1%, but beef volume increased 1.4%. Meanwhile, chicken volume declined 0.4% and pork fell 1.3%.

Translation?

Consumers are still buying beef.

They may be adjusting cuts, package sizes, occasions and channels, but the appetite for beef has not disappeared.

That matters enormously.

Don't Confuse a Price Problem With a Demand Problem

The National Cattlemen's Beef Association argues that flooding the market with government-subsidized, below-market beef will not rebuild America's cattle herd.

That criticism gets to the heart of the problem.

A cattle producer doesn't rebuild a herd because Washington temporarily makes imported beef cheaper.

Herd rebuilding requires confidence that producers will have an economically sustainable market several years from now.

Meanwhile, the short-term market intervention could create a very different incentive structure.

If imported beef suddenly becomes substantially cheaper, packers may have less incentive to bid aggressively for domestic cattle. That could put additional pressure on cattle producers even while giving packers an opportunity to capture some of the margin created by lower input costs.

That is the danger of solving a retail-price problem with a supply-chain shortcut.

You can lower the price of the ingredient without fixing the system producing the ingredient.

But Here Is What Washington Should Be Watching: The Consumer

The food industry sometimes gets trapped in a producer-versus-retailer-versus-packer argument.

The consumer doesn't care.

The consumer asks three questions:

What does it cost?

Does it taste good?

Is it worth it?

That is the Price-Value-Service Equilibrium.

And beef has a powerful advantage: taste.

Beef remains one of America's most culturally embedded proteins. A hamburger is not simply a commodity. It is a meal occasion. Steak is not simply a protein. It is an experience. Ground beef is not simply an ingredient. It is one of the most flexible building blocks in the American kitchen.

That is why the grocery, restaurant and convenience-store industries should be paying close attention to what is happening.

The consumer isn't necessarily trading beef away.

The consumer is trading around the price of beef.

That distinction is enormous.

The Grocerant Opportunity Is Sitting Right in the Middle

There is another piece of the story that deserves more attention: foodservice and grocery are increasingly competing for the same beef occasion.

A consumer can buy ground beef at the supermarket and cook a burger at home.

Or buy a ready-made burger from the grocery deli.

Or pick up a burger from a restaurant.

Or grab one from a convenience store.

Or order a beef bowl, taco or sandwich for delivery.

The channel is blurring.

That means retailers and foodservice operators don't necessarily need to win by selling more pounds of beef.

They need to win by creating more perceived value per bite.

That could mean a better burger, a better sandwich, a better beef bowl, a better taco — or simply taking the work out of preparing beef at home.

And this is where the intersection of technology and food sales is Taste.

Technology can tell you what consumers bought.

Technology can tell you when they bought it.

Technology can tell you where they bought it.

But taste is what makes them come back.

The Real Risk: Chasing Yesterday's Metric

There is a temptation in the beef debate to focus exclusively on pounds, imports, tariffs, herd size and commodity prices.

Those numbers matter.

But they don't tell the whole consumer story.

A pound of beef sold as raw ground beef is not necessarily equivalent to a pound of beef sold as a fully prepared meal.

The food industry has spent decades measuring transactions rather than occasions.

The emerging grocerant marketplace requires a different lens.

What did the consumer want to eat?

Why did they choose that channel?

What did they believe the meal was worth?

Did the food deliver on taste and convenience?

That's where the future of beef demand gets interesting.

If Americans want beef but increasingly want it prepared, convenient and worth the money, then the biggest opportunity may not be in selling more raw beef.

It may be in selling better beef experiences.

Three Suggestions From the Grocerant Guru®

1. Stop treating beef exclusively as a commodity.

Retailers, restaurants and C-stores should merchandise beef around occasions, not simply pounds. Burgers, steak meals, tacos, bowls, sandwiches and family meals can create value that a commodity-price comparison cannot.

2. Build value through preparation, not just price.

If beef is expensive, don't automatically race to the bottom. Turn it into a Ready-2-Eat or Heat-N-Eat solution that delivers convenience, portion control, flavor and meal completion. Consumers may pay more for a meal that eliminates preparation and delivers an experience.

3. Rebuild the consumer's beef relationship while the industry rebuilds the herd.

The cattle industry needs long-term production economics. Consumers need affordable access to food they love. Retailers and foodservice operators need profitable transactions. The winning strategy is not simply more beef or cheaper beef.

It is more value from every beef occasion.

The Grocerant Guru® Bottom Line

America doesn't have a beef-demand problem.

It has a beef affordability, supply and value problem.

Flooding the market with additional imported beef may provide temporary price relief, but temporary relief doesn't rebuild a domestic cattle herd.

And the food industry should remember something even more important:

Americans don't eat pounds. They eat meals.

The brands, retailers, restaurants and grocers that understand that distinction will be better positioned to capture the next generation of beef demand.

Because in the end, the consumer doesn't buy beef because it is a commodity. They buy it because they want the taste.

At the intersection of technology and food sales is Taste.

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With deep experience in restaurant operations, brand positioning, and strategic consulting, Steven provides valuable takeaways that inspire and drive results.

Visit GrocerantGuru.com or FoodserviceSolutions.US Call 1-253-759-7869

The Crunch Revolution: Why Texture Is Becoming Food's Most Powerful Competitive Advantage

 

By Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru® at Foodservice Solutions®

Forget flavor for a moment.

The next competitive battleground in food isn't sweet versus savory, spicy versus mild, or indulgent versus healthy. It's texture. Specifically, crunch.

Across grocery retail, foodservice, convenience stores, and consumer packaged goods (CPG), texture has quietly evolved from a product attribute into a strategic differentiator. Consumers are no longer satisfied with food that simply tastes good—they want food that delivers a complete sensory experience. They want to hear it, feel it, and share it.

The "Crunch Revolution" isn't another passing food fad. It's the convergence of consumer psychology, sensory science, social media, and menu engineering. Companies that understand this shift are finding new ways to create value, command premium pricing, and strengthen customer loyalty—all with relatively inexpensive product innovations.

Why Texture Has Become the New Flavor

Food scientists have long recognized that consumers eat with all five senses. Taste is only one component of the overall eating experience. Sight, aroma, sound, and mouthfeel all influence perceptions of freshness, quality, and satisfaction.

The unmistakable crack of artisan sourdough, the crisp snap of a fresh cucumber, the crunch of roasted chickpeas, or the delicate crispness of toasted grains immediately signals freshness and craftsmanship.

Research in sensory science consistently demonstrates that consumers perceive foods with crisp textures as fresher and of higher quality. That perception often translates into a greater willingness to purchase and pay premium prices.

Today's consumers aren't simply buying food.

They're buying an experience.

The Economics Behind the Crunch

Texture has become one of the highest-return investments available to food manufacturers and restaurant operators.

Consider the economics.

Adding toasted seeds to a salad.

Crispy onions to a burger.

Crunchy chili crisp to a rice bowl.

Artisan breadcrumbs to pasta.

Each addition costs only pennies yet dramatically increases perceived value, visual appeal, and customer satisfaction.

In today's inflation-sensitive environment, these inexpensive enhancements help retailers and restaurants deliver a premium dining experience without significantly increasing food costs.

That's smart menu engineering.

Consumers Still Eat Most Meals at Home

The opportunity is enormous because the home remains America's primary restaurant.

According to Circana's ongoing consumer eating research, approximately 81% of evening meals are sourced from home, whether prepared from scratch, assembled from grocery ingredients, or enhanced with prepared foods. At the same time, FMI—The Food Industry Association reports that the overwhelming majority of Americans prepare dinner at home multiple nights each week while actively seeking restaurant-quality meal experiences.

This creates an enormous opportunity for grocery retailers.

Consumers don't necessarily want restaurant prices.

They want restaurant experiences.

Crunch delivers exactly that.

Garden Envy Is Driving Fresh Summer Meals

Summer 2026 has highlighted another powerful consumer movement.

Call it Garden Envy.

Whether consumers harvest vegetables from their own gardens or shop local farmers markets, fresh seasonal produce has become the centerpiece of summer meals.

Tomatoes.

Cucumbers.

Fresh basil.

Sweet corn.

Zucchini.

Peppers.

Rather than preparing complicated recipes, consumers are embracing simple combinations that allow seasonal ingredients to shine.

A tomato and bulgur salad layered with herbs, lemon, olive oil, cucumbers, and toasted seeds perfectly illustrates today's eating philosophy: fresh ingredients, minimal preparation, maximum texture.

It's simple.

It's healthy.

It's visually stunning.

And it delivers the satisfying crunch consumers increasingly crave.

Social Media Rewards Foods That Crunch

The rise of TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts has fundamentally changed food marketing.

Consumers don't simply photograph food anymore.

They record it.

The crack of crispy bread.

The crunch of roasted vegetables.

The sound of toasted granola.

The breaking of caramelized sugar.

Food has become entertainment.

Texture creates content.

Content creates engagement.

Engagement drives purchases.

This is one reason crunchy foods consistently outperform visually flat products across digital platforms.

Consumers increasingly discover new foods through creators who make texture part of the storytelling experience.

Private Label Is Winning the Crunch Race

Retailers have recognized that premium texture can be delivered without premium costs.

Private-label manufacturers continue expanding offerings that feature roasted nuts, seed blends, artisan granolas, crunchy vegetable snacks, crispy toppings, and elevated prepared foods.

According to the Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA), store brands continue capturing market share as consumers increasingly equate private labels with innovation and quality rather than simply value. FMI research likewise shows that store-brand purchasing has become a routine habit for most American grocery shoppers.

Retailers such as Aldi, Costco, Trader Joe's, H-E-B, Wegmans, and Whole Foods continue investing in premium private-label products that emphasize both freshness and texture.

Crunch has become a competitive advantage.

Restaurants Are Layering Texture Into Every Daypart

Restaurant operators face an increasingly difficult challenge.

Consumers expect premium dining experiences while carefully managing discretionary spending.

Texture provides an affordable solution.

Breakfast sandwiches now feature crispy hash browns.

Lunch salads incorporate roasted grains and toasted nuts.

Dinner entrées are finished with crispy shallots or seasoned breadcrumbs.

Desserts feature caramelized brittle, cookie crumbles, toasted coconut, and crunchy chocolate pearls.

According to the National Restaurant Association, consumers continue prioritizing experiences when dining out. Layered textures help operators create memorable menu items while supporting higher perceived value and stronger guest satisfaction.

Healthy Foods Have Finally Learned to Crunch

Perhaps the biggest shift of all is nutritional.

Yesterday's crunchy foods were often fried.

Today's crunchy foods increasingly come from nutrient-dense ingredients.

Roasted chickpeas.

Pumpkin seeds.

Ancient grains.

Fermented nuts.

Lentil crisps.

Air-popped popcorn.

Vegetable chips.

Mushroom crisps.

Consumers no longer believe healthy foods should be bland or boring.

They expect nutrition wrapped inside excitement.

Texture helps healthy foods compete with indulgent snacks without sacrificing satisfaction.

The Future Belongs to Multi-Sensory Foods

Looking ahead, expect texture to become an even larger component of food innovation.

Manufacturers will continue developing products that combine multiple textures in every bite.

Retailers will expand finish-at-home ingredient assortments.

Restaurants will increasingly design menu items around sensory experiences rather than flavor profiles alone.

Meanwhile, artificial intelligence, consumer analytics, and social listening will help identify emerging texture preferences almost as quickly as they appear online.

The companies that win won't necessarily introduce the next new flavor.

They'll create the next unforgettable eating experience.

And increasingly, that experience will begin with one unmistakable sound:

Crunch.

 

Three Insights from the Grocerant Guru®

1. Texture Has Become a Profit Strategy, Not Just a Product Feature

The most successful food companies increasingly understand that crunch creates perceived value far beyond its actual cost. Pennies spent on texture can generate dollars in additional margin, stronger customer satisfaction, and increased repeat purchases.

2. The Future of Fresh Foods Is Experience-Driven

Fresh produce alone is no longer enough. Consumers want meals that combine freshness, portability, convenience, health, and exciting texture. The retailers that merchandise crunchy toppings, prepared ingredients, and meal solutions together will capture a larger share of at-home meal occasions.

3. The Next Generation of Food Innovation Will Be Measured by the Senses

For decades the industry competed on flavor. Tomorrow's winners will compete on sensory engagement—appearance, aroma, sound, mouthfeel, and taste. Companies that design products for all five senses will define the next decade of food innovation.

About the Author: Steven Johnson is the Grocerant Guru® and founder of Foodservice Solutions®, where he has analyzed the evolution of fresh prepared foods, Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat meal solutions, consumer purchasing behavior, and food industry innovation for more than three decades. His Grocerant ScoreCard® and Grocerant Index® have helped retailers, restaurant operators, convenience stores, and consumer packaged goods companies better understand the changing dynamics of food consumption and the future of meal occasions.

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One key insight that continues to drive success is this: "The consumer is dynamic, not static." This principle is the foundation of our work at Foodservice Solutions®, where Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, has been helping brands stay relevant in an ever-evolving market.

Want to strengthen your brand’s connection with today’s consumers? Let’s talk. Call 253-759-7869 for more information.