U.S. Chain Restaurants Capitulate: Brand Protectionism is Not Working

 

For decades, brand protectionism was the cornerstone of chain restaurant growth. By guarding against menu change, resisting cross-channel innovation, and doubling down on rigid identity, many restaurant brands enjoyed an era of seemingly unstoppable expansion. In the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, those strategies attracted investors, fueled store counts, and created household names. But history has shown us that “protecting the brand” for too long often leads to stagnation, consumer irrelevance, and market share erosion according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

Lessons From History: Three Times Brand Protectionism Failed

1.       Howard Johnson’s – Once the largest restaurant chain in America, Howard Johnson’s refused to adapt to shifting consumer tastes and clung too tightly to its limited menu. By the 1980s, as fast-food competitors embraced speed and new flavors, Howard Johnson’s stores looked and felt outdated. Its decline stands as one of the clearest examples of brand protectionism gone wrong.

2.       Steak and Ale – Known for introducing affordable steakhouse dining, Steak and Ale stuck with its dark interiors and dated “salad bar” format long after consumer preferences shifted toward fresher, lighter, and more open dining environments. Competitors innovated while Steak and Ale clung to its past, eventually forcing bankruptcy.

3.       Chi-Chi’s – Once a go-to casual Mexican chain, Chi-Chi’s resisted evolving its menu and décor even as more authentic and fresher Mexican concepts gained traction. Combined with operational missteps, its inability to pivot left it irrelevant to both younger diners and multicultural consumers, sealing its fate.

Each of these chains clung too long to “what worked yesterday.” They misread consumer dynamism as a passing trend. History suggests they weren’t exceptions — they were warnings.

Today’s Legacy Chains: Stuck in Yesterday

Fast forward to the 2020s, and some of America’s biggest names are repeating the same mistakes.

1.       Applebee’s – Still tethered to “neighborhood bar and grill” branding, Applebee’s struggles to engage younger generations who value food discovery, wellness, and convenience over oversized appetizers and cocktail promotions.

2.       Olive Garden – While still beloved for comfort dining, Olive Garden has resisted modernization in plant-forward menus, off-premise innovation, and digital loyalty compared to competitors like CAVA or Sweetgreen. Its “never-ending pasta” approach resonates less with a wellness-driven audience.

3.       TGI Fridays – Once synonymous with casual dining excitement, Fridays is now viewed as tired. Overreliance on legacy bar promotions and dated décor has left the brand struggling to differentiate in a crowded midscale market.

Meanwhile, grocery store prepared meals and convenience-store foodservice are growing at 6.5% annually, according to NielsenIQ. Black Box Intelligence™ reports that U.S. chain restaurant sales fell -0.7% in August with traffic down -3.9%, signaling that consumers are voting with their wallets — and increasingly choosing alternatives.

Why Consumers Are Moving On

Today’s food shoppers are explorers. Millennials and Gen Z spend more time researching, trying, and sharing new foods than any generation before them. A OnePoll/Sweet Earth Foods survey found that millennials try 46 new foods a year, with 57% subscribing to diets like plant-based, Keto, or vegan. The fact that 77% of consumers buying JUST Egg are still meat eaters proves this is not about niche diets — it’s about discovery, values, and flexibility.

Legacy chains that cling to old models miss these undercurrents. Consumers are dynamic; food brands must be dynamic as well.

Four Insights from the Grocerant Guru®

Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru® of Foodservice Solutions®, offers four insights for restaurants seeking relevance:

1.       Consumer Relevance Beats Brand Consistency – Protecting yesterday’s brand image at the expense of tomorrow’s consumer needs is a losing formula. Adaptation must take priority.

2.       Embrace Food Discovery – Consumers are looking for new flavors, new formats, and new experiences. Integrate limited-time offers, plant-forward dishes, and global flavors that evolve with customer curiosity.

3.       Cross-Channel Is Critical – Competing with grocery prepared meals, convenience stores, and third-party delivery means being present across platforms. A “restaurant-only” mindset is outdated.

4.       Convenience Is Currency – Speed, portability, and personalization now define value. Restaurants that ignore consumer demand for frictionless meals risk irrelevance.

 

Bottom line: History has shown that clinging too tightly to brand protectionism leads to decline. Today, legacy restaurant chains risk repeating the mistakes of Howard Johnson’s, Steak and Ale, and Chi-Chi’s. Consumers are dynamic, and the only way forward is to evolve — quickly, consistently, and with the consumer, not the brand, at the center.

Are you ready for some fresh ideations? Do your food marketing ideas look more like yesterday than tomorrow? Interested in learning how our Grocerant Guru® can edify your retail food brand while creating a platform for consumer convenient meal participation, differentiation and individualization?  Email us at: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or visit: us on our social media sites by clicking one of the following links: Facebook,  LinkedIn, or Twitter

September on the Menu: What Food Sales Teach Us About Growth in 2025

 

September has always been more than just another month in the food industry. It’s a reset button. Back-to-school signals new routines according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®  Labor Day closes summer’s entertaining season, football kicks off tailgates, and fall flavors return. Across the supply chain — convenience stores, grocery retailers, and restaurants — sales patterns in September have historically revealed what’s ahead for the rest of the year.

But 2025 isn’t just another September. Price sensitivity, the ongoing “grocery price war,” and rising consumer demand for convenience are converging in new ways. Let’s dig into what history tells us, what operators should expect this year, and how forward-looking strategies — especially those grounded in the Grocerant Guru’s insights — can unlock growth.

 

A Historical Snapshot: September Food Sales

·       Convenience spikes: According to NACS, September traditionally delivers one of the year’s top lifts in coffee and breakfast sandwich sales as commuters settle back into routines. Energy drinks and salty snacks also show measurable week-over-week growth in September, particularly around college football weekends.

·       Grocery reset: Supermarket data shows a seasonal bump in grocery sales during September — in 2023, Nielsen reported a +4.2% sales lift month-over-month, driven by meal solutions, snack packs, and private-label prepared foods.

·       Restaurant stabilization: After a volatile summer, September tends to normalize restaurant traffic. Historically, weekday dinner sales pick up while lunch traffic levels off as workers return to offices. Black Box Intelligence data shows September sales often set the tone for Q4 comps.

·       Price environment: USDA’s 2025 Food Price Outlook forecasts a +2.2% increase for food-at-home versus +4.0% for food-away-from-home. This widening spread puts pressure on restaurants while giving grocers an opening to position grocerant-style meal solutions as the “value alternative.”

 

What Each Channel Should Expect (Historical Patterns)

Convenience Stores

1.       Higher weekday morning and afternoon traffic.

2.       Growth in single-serve and grab-and-go items.

3.       Tailgate-driven spikes in beer, snacks, and wings.

4.       Trading down to value-priced items as price sensitivity increases.

Grocery Stores

1.       Shoppers pivot toward heat-and-eat meal solutions.

2.       Fall seasonal merchandising drives trial and excitement.

3.       Promotions intensify under the grocery price war.

4.       Volatility in fresh produce and proteins affects basket composition.

Restaurants

1.       Weeknight dinner covers normalize after summer.

2.       Seasonal menus (pumpkin, apple, comfort foods) spark trial.

3.       Catering and small-group business grows with sports and work events.

4.       Margin pressure continues as food-away-from-home inflation outpaces food-at-home.

 

What to Expect This Year

Convenience Stores:

·       Expect stronger loyalty engagement with coffee + breakfast sandwich bundles.

·       Weekend tailgate bundles (snack + beer multipacks) drive basket growth.

Grocery Stores:

·       Private-label meal solutions outperform — expect double-digit share gains in ready-to-heat dinners.

·       Value-priced weeknight meal bundles (protein + side + veg) resonate with cost-conscious families.

Restaurants:

·       Family takeout packs gain traction as households juggle school schedules.

·       Seasonal LTOs succeed if priced with a clear value ladder (entry-level, core, and premium options).

 

Forward-Looking Growth Strategies from the Grocerant Guru®

Convenience Stores

1.       Micro-meal dayparting: Bundle SKUs into targeted meal solutions (coffee + bar in AM, sandwich + snack in PM) and promote via loyalty apps.

2.       Private-label innovation: Launch single-serve fresh-prepared SKUs under store brands to compete with QSRs on both price and convenience.

Grocery Stores

1.       Grocerant bays: Dedicate flexible floor space to modular “grocerant stations” offering prepared meals that rotate by daypart or seasonal demand.

2.       Health-forward private label: Expand better-for-you prepared lines — high-protein, low-sugar, GLP-1-friendly — marketed as premium convenience at value pricing.

Restaurants

1.       At-home extensions: Turn bestsellers into heat-and-eat retail products or direct-delivered meal kits, extending brand reach into grocery aisles.

2.       Dynamic value ladders: Design menu bundles across three tiers (economy, core, premium) to address both inflation-sensitive diners and indulgent splurges.

 

The Undercurrent: The Price War

The grocery price war is not a short skirmish — it’s the competitive baseline. Walmart, Kroger, Aldi, Costco, and discounters are doubling down on private-label innovation and aggressive EDLP strategies. Restaurants, grocers, and c-stores alike must prepare for sustained margin pressure.

The winners in 2025 will be those who:

·       Own their private label and fresh-prepared mix.

·       Use loyalty and personalization to target promotions precisely.

·       Innovate around time scarcity — the new currency of food retail.

 

Think About this

September is no longer just the “back-to-school” sales lift. It’s the annual proving ground where food operators test whether they can compete on value, convenience, and experience in the face of rising price competition.

Convenience stores, grocery retailers, and restaurants that embrace grocerant-style innovation, sharpen their private-label mix, and rethink pricing ladders will not only win September — they’ll set themselves up for sustainable growth in 2025 and beyond.

Elevate Your Brand with Expert Insights

For corporate presentations, regional chain strategies, educational forums, or keynote speaking, Steven Johnson, the Grocerant Guru®, delivers actionable insights that fuel success.

With deep experience in restaurant operations, brand positioning, and strategic consulting, Steven provides valuable takeaways that inspire and drive results.

💡 Visit GrocerantGuru.com or FoodserviceSolutions.US
📞 Call 1-253-759-7869

The Seven Spoons of Struggle: Why Restaurants Struggle to Stay Profitable

 

The restaurant industry has always been a tightrope act. From medieval taverns to 1950s diners to today’s Instagram-driven bistros, restaurateurs have grappled with financial balancing acts. It’s not a new struggle—but one made more complex by rising costs and changing consumer behaviors according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®. Let’s explore seven key cost centers that chip away at profitability, backed by history and food facts.

1. Food Cost – A Recipe for Razor-Thin Margins

Historical note: In Ancient Rome, tavern owners were often forced to raise prices when the grain supply was disrupted by war or weather. Today’s equivalent? Global supply chain fluctuations and rising ingredient prices.

Modern fact: The ideal food cost percentage is between 28% and 35%. But inflation, spoilage, and over-ordering often push this much higher. Menu engineering and portion control are vital—yet even those can't always beat commodity volatility (think: the skyrocketing price of eggs in 2022).

2. Labor Cost – Staffing the Line

Historical note: In the 1800s, fine dining in Paris was made possible through cheap or even unpaid labor from apprentices. Today, those days are gone—rightfully so.

Modern fact: Labor can eat up 30–40% of a restaurant's monthly expenses. Between minimum wage increases, turnover, and training costs, staffing is often the second-largest expense. Throw in benefits, paid sick time, and training, and you’re walking a tight margin.

3. Overtime Pay – The Hidden Burner

Historical note: In post-WWII America, diners thrived on long hours and hard work—often by family members. But labor laws have since changed the game.

Modern fact: Federal and state regulations require time-and-a-half for hours over 40 per week. A single salaried manager pulling “just a few” 60-hour weeks can cost thousands in retroactive back pay if misclassified.

4. Utilities – The Cost of Comfort

Historical note: In the early 20th century, iceboxes and wood stoves dominated kitchens. Today's gas ovens, HVAC systems, and walk-in freezers, while more efficient, are far more expensive to run.

Modern fact: Utilities can range from 3% to 6% of gross sales. In high-volume kitchens, especially in warm climates, utility bills can exceed $5,000/month. Energy-efficient equipment helps, but upfront costs are often prohibitive for struggling operators.

5. Trash and Waste – The Silent Profit Eater

Historical note: During wartime rationing in the 1940s, kitchens were masters of scrap cooking and zero waste. Today, food waste can quietly hemorrhage cash.

Modern fact: Restaurants generate 25,000–75,000 pounds of waste annually. Dumpster fees, composting, recycling programs, and unused food all pile up—literally and financially. Smart operators track waste like inventory, but many still neglect it.

6. Slow Sales – Feast or Famine

Historical note: In Depression-era America, restaurants closed in droves due to vanishing discretionary income. Only establishments with deep community ties or novel concepts survived.

Modern fact: Even a 10% dip in weekly sales can decimate cash flow. Weather, construction, local events, or online reviews can shift the tide overnight. The rise of delivery apps has helped broaden reach—but they take 20–30% per order, eating into margins.

7. Debt – The Long Shadow

Historical note: Many post-war restaurants in the 1950s expanded too fast with bank loans and failed to keep up with the boom-and-bust suburban sprawl.

Modern fact: Opening a restaurant can cost $275,000 to $500,000 or more. Many owners start with loans, credit cards, or investors—and find themselves servicing debt instead of reinvesting in the business. Interest payments can eat up what little profit is left, especially during slow months.

 

Five Red Flags It’s Time to Sell, Close, or Walk Away

Running a restaurant demands passion—but also pragmatism. Here are five key indicators that it may be time to make a hard decision:

1.       Negative Cash Flow for 6+ Months

o   If you're consistently in the red despite attempts to cut costs or increase revenue, the business model may be broken.

2.       Can’t Pay Yourself

o   If you haven’t drawn a salary in months—or years—while still working 60-hour weeks, you're effectively a volunteer in a failing enterprise.

3.       Mounting Debt with No Paydown Plan

o   If you're using new credit to pay off old debt or missing loan payments, the financial tailspin may be irreversible.

4.       Team Turnover is Constant

o   A revolving door of staff hurts consistency, increases training costs, and signals internal dysfunction—both to customers and remaining team members.

5.       Declining Sales Despite Promotions

o   If happy hours, discounts, and events aren’t bringing in sustainable volume, the local market might not support your concept anymore.

 

Think About This

Restaurants are a labor of love—and history shows they’ve always danced on the edge of financial danger. Understanding where the money goes and when to call it quits isn’t just good business—it’s survival. If your kitchen is cooking up more stress than sales, it might be time to put down the ladle and reassess.

Let’s Build a Partnership for Growth

Looking for the right partner to drive sales and amplify your marketing impact? Success leaves clues—and we may have the exact insight you need to propel your business forward.

Explore innovative food marketing and business development strategies with Foodservice Solutions®.

📩 Contact us at Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us
🔍 Learn more at GrocerantGuru.com