Food Marketing Calendars in TRUMP 2.0

 

The restaurant industry has long relied on food marketing calendars to drive menu innovation, seasonal promotions, and consumer engagement according to Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®. But in a politically charged environment where tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and fluctuating commodity prices loom large, menu planning in TRUMP 2.0 could become more complex than ever before. With shifting policies on trade, labor, and energy, restaurants and food retailers must brace for unpredictable economic headwinds that could disrupt both ingredient availability and pricing.

The Problem: Political Volatility Meets Menu Planning

Restaurants thrive on consistency, but political decisions—especially regarding tariffs and trade agreements—can send shockwaves through the supply chain. From farm to fork, operators will have to rethink their approach as they contend with rising costs and shortages.

Three Key Disruptions Likely to Impact Foodservice

1.       Fresh Produce: Tariffs & Import Restrictions
Many fresh produce items, such as avocados, tomatoes, and citrus, are heavily imported. Potential new tariffs on Mexican and South American produce could significantly increase costs, forcing restaurants to either absorb the cost or pass it on to consumers. Additionally, labor shortages due to immigration policy changes may affect domestic farming output, reducing availability of key ingredients.

2.       Meat & Bakery: Grain & Feed Cost Volatility
Meat and bakery products are especially vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. Increased tariffs on grain imports would raise livestock feed prices, impacting beef, pork, and poultry costs. Additionally, disruptions in wheat and corn pricing could drive up bakery and tortilla costs, making staple menu items like sandwiches, burgers, and breakfast offerings more expensive. Restaurants depending on flour-based goods could see profit margins squeezed.

3.       Packaging & Gasoline: Rising Transportation Costs
Supply chain logistics depend heavily on fuel and packaging. If gasoline prices rise due to changes in energy policy or geopolitical instability, the cost of transporting food and beverage products will skyrocket. Meanwhile, tariffs on imported paper and plastics could inflate the cost of takeout packaging, forcing brands to either find local alternatives or raise menu prices.

Four Safe Planning Strategies for Restaurants in TRUMP 2.0

1.       Diversify Supplier Relationships
Restaurants should establish relationships with multiple vendors—both domestic and international—to hedge against supply chain disruptions. Seeking out regional producers for key ingredients can mitigate the impact of tariffs and transportation cost increases.

2.       Adjust Menus with Seasonal & Local Ingredients
A flexible, rotating menu that emphasizes local and seasonal ingredients can help offset cost volatility. Instead of relying on year-round imported produce, leveraging local farmer partnerships can provide cost stability and promote sustainability.

3.       Rework Packaging & Delivery Models
With potential increases in packaging and fuel costs, restaurants should explore alternative packaging solutions, such as compostable materials sourced domestically. Additionally, partnering with delivery companies that optimize routes and fuel efficiency can help control delivery costs.

4.       Proactive Consumer Messaging & Transparency
Transparency with customers about price changes, ingredient swaps, and menu adjustments will be critical. Restaurants should use their marketing channels to communicate these shifts in a way that reinforces brand authenticity. Messaging that educates consumers on why certain changes are occurring—while highlighting sustainability or quality improvements—can build trust and brand loyalty.

Don't Be Silent

Think About This

The restaurant industry has always been resilient, but menu planning in TRUMP 2.0 will require even more agility. Political shifts, tariffs, and supply chain turbulence will create challenges, but smart operators who plan ahead can turn potential disruptions into opportunities. By staying ahead of economic changes, sourcing strategically, and crafting thoughtful messaging, restaurants can not only survive but thrive in the coming years.

Invite Foodservice Solutions® to complete a Grocerant ScoreCard, or for product positioning or placement assistance, or call our Grocerant Guru®.  Since 1991 Foodservice Solutions® of Tacoma, WA has been the global leader in the Grocerant niche. Contact: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or 253-759-7869