How Chili’s Is Cooking Up a Hot Streak in a Cool Economy

 

In a casual dining landscape where many brands are still trying to find their footing, Chili’s is striding confidently—steak fajita platter in one hand, frozen margarita in the other. The Dallas-based chain has now posted five straight quarters of double-digit same-store sales growth, culminating in a 24% jump in Q4 fueled by 16% traffic growth. That’s on top of last year’s 15% gain—meaning a two-year growth of 39% that leaves competitors like Applebee’s and Red Robin playing catch-up.

What’s the secret sauce? Let’s break it down through the Tacoma, WA based Steven Johnson, Foodservice Solutions®, Grocerant Guru® lens: Price, Value, Service, and Social Equilibrium.

 

Price & Value

The engine driving this comeback is Chili’s $10.99 “3 for Me” value meal—an anchor offering that’s both inflation-proof and appetite-friendly. By pairing this core deal with strategically priced upsell items—like the Big QP Burger, ribs, and $10 frozen margaritas made with Patron—Chili’s manages to deliver perceived value without racing to the bottom on price. The numbers tell the story: even with broader economic pressure, guests are trading up, ordering nearly 5% more high-ticket items and tacking on apps or desserts.

 

Service & Operational Excellence

Value brings them in; service keeps them coming back. Since CEO Kevin Hochman’s turnaround began three years ago, Chili’s has:

·       Invested $160 million more in labor than in 2022.

·       Shrunk its menu by 25% to focus on core, well-executed items.

·       Reached record-high food quality scores and slashed “guests with a problem” to a mere 2.3%.

Add to that tech upgrades—like redesigned server tablets to reduce order-entry frustration—and operational best practices lifted from the brand’s top-performing locations, and you’ve got a service model that scales.

 

Social Equilibrium

Chili’s has hit a rare balance: it knows how to go viral without becoming a gimmick. The Triple Dipper appetizer found TikTok fame last year (hello, cheese pulls), but the brand didn’t stop at social buzz. It’s now anchoring national TV campaigns with that same product, turning fleeting trends into long-term menu momentum. The result? 15% of transactions now include a Triple Dipper—a staggering attachment rate for a casual-dining app.

 

Consumer Focus: Winning Back the Old, Welcoming the New

One of the most underestimated parts of Chili’s success story is how it’s bridging the gap between legacy loyalists and first-time visitors.

For longtime customers, Chili’s is reestablishing trust by bringing back the hits—ribs worthy of the old jingle, burgers built to rival fast-food icons, and ingredient upgrades that feel like a commitment to quality, not cost-cutting. These guests remember the “glory days” and are coming back to see that Chili’s has recaptured its stride.

For new customers, Chili’s is making itself relevant through value-driven entry points, social-media-fueled curiosity, and upgraded in-restaurant experiences. Gen Z and Millennials may not have grown up with the Baby Back Ribs ad, but they’re responding to Instagram-worthy plating, TikTok challenges, and the allure of a big-brand-quality burger in a casual dining setting.

The result is a multi-generational dining experience that blends nostalgia with novelty—a combination that’s rare in casual dining today.

 

The Nostalgia Play

In turbulent times, smart brands reach back to the familiar. Chili’s is leveraging legacy assets like its ’90s “Baby Back Ribs” jingle and classic menu anchors. Why does this work? Four reasons:

1.       Emotional Comfort – Familiar flavors and jingles trigger warm memories, reassuring consumers during uncertain periods.

2.       Brand Trust – Legacy menu items remind guests the brand has stood the test of time, building confidence in quality and consistency.

3.       Low Cognitive Load – When budgets are tight, customers gravitate to “safe bets” they already know they’ll enjoy.

4.       Multi-Generational Appeal – Parents who loved Chili’s in the ’90s now bring their kids, creating a cycle of repeat visits and cross-generational loyalty.

 

The Grocerant Guru’s Three Recommendations for Chili’s Moving Forward

1.       Seasonal Legacy Revivals – Introduce limited-time throwback menu items tied to past campaigns or flavor profiles (think: “1997-style Baby Back Rib Sauce” month) to tap nostalgia spikes without menu clutter.

2.       Grocerant Extension Play – Bring Chili’s signature items—like Triple Dipper sauces or Big QP Burger seasoning—into retail grocery channels for at-home trial, driving both revenue and brand salience.

3.       Social-to-Table Challenges – Create interactive campaigns where guests can post their Chili’s “food moment” for a chance to have it featured on menus or in-store signage, blending user-generated content with real-world dining incentives.

 

The Road Ahead

With new nachos, a chicken sandwich relaunch, ingredient upgrades (50% thicker bacon—amen), and a plan to remodel stores by 2027, Chili’s is signaling it’s not coasting on this momentum. The chain expects mid-single-digit same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026—slower than the current fireworks, but still outpacing the industry.

For the casual dining world, Chili’s is proving a simple truth: price and value open the door, service and social connection keep the table full, and nostalgia done right can turn yesterday’s jingle into today’s cash register chime.

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Four Smaller Walls Too Drive Relevant Growth at TGI Friday’s

 

When consumers are evolving faster than your brand, customer relevance ebbs to the point your franchisees close stores, your profits trail off, and you watch your customers migrate to any brand that is more relevant to them. 

That said, brands have value, consumers know just what they like from your brand but at times they need something additional, different, or fresh according to Steven Johnson, Grocerant Guru® at Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions®.

The grocerant niche filled with Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat fresh prepared food continues to drive top-line sales and bottom-line profits in every sector of retail foodservice today. In fact, TGI Friday’s was one of the first branded chain restaurants to place products in the Frozen Food Court and continues to find success their according to Johnson.

When your primary target consumers age there is no reason to abandon them according to Johnson.  TGI Friday’s clearly understands the importance of developing their brands off-premise business while extending a customer’s life time value.

In an effort to edify its brand, and extend its best customers life time value, TGI Fridays is launching a small-format spinoff called Fridays on the Fly with more fresh food fast.

In a Battle for Share of Stomach

You can Win! 

These smaller footprint units focus is on meal delivery and takeout.  In addition, they will serve multiple virtual brands out of a single kitchen, adding customer relevance by day-part, flavor profile, price.

Not able at this time to move on completely, each new unit for now will also have a dining room for on-site guests. While the new smaller footprint format may appear is a product of the pandemic, which has enabled the brand to do more off-premise business. The trending growth of the grocerant niche filled with fresh prepared Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat food has been top-of-mind at TGI Friday’s for a good 20 years.

TGI Friday’s CEO Ray Blanchette, stated, "Now that 30% of our revenue comes away from restaurant, we can actually do both," Our Grocerant Guru® has been helping brands do just that for 28+ years.  Hint; there is no sign of consumers desire not to continue to evolve garnering branded fresh food from new non-traditional points of distribution.

At TGI Friday’s as regular readers of this blog know part of the off-premise revenue is coming from a host of virtual brands. Fridays has its own online-only concepts such as Conviction Chicken and has also partnered with C3 to offer some of its brands out of its restaurants. Krispy Rice, for instance, is now in test at 14 locations in Southern California and the Washington, D.C., area with promising results, said John Neitzel, Fridays' president and COO. 

So, the first On the Fly location is currently under construction, and executives did not say how many units it ultimately expects to open. The company expects the stores to generate $2 million average unit volumes with annualized earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation of $300,000. "The sky's the limit in terms of potential," Neitzel said. The team at Foodservice Solutions® agrees.  How are you evolving? Where are you evolving?

Looking for success clues of your own? Foodservice Solutions® specializes in outsourced food marketing and business development ideations. We can help you identify, quantify and qualify additional food retail segment opportunities, technology, or a new menu product segment.  Foodservice Solutions® of Tacoma WA is the global leader in the Grocerant niche visit us on our social media sites by clicking one of the following links: Facebook,  LinkedIn, or Twitter

Want Football Food Dickey’s Delivers

It’s that time again when the undercurrents of college football and NFL football bring old friend together and this year Dickey’s Barbecue Pit can deliver a grocerant niche Ready-2-Eat tailgate party pack for $99 that everyone will enjoy according to Tacoma, WA based Foodservice Solutions® Grocerant Guru®, Steven Johnson.

Dickey’s Barbecue Pit is offering guests a more convenient way to order, deliver, set-up, clean-up and perfect football fan food.  The Tailgate Party Pack can feed up to 12 adults, boasting four pounds of Dickey’s most popular slow-smoked meats and enough classic barbecue sides to satisfy a defensive line. The Tailgate Party Pack includes:

·         2 lbs Brisket

·         2 lbs Pulled Pork

·         64 oz Potato Salad

·         64 oz Coleslaw

·         64 oz Barbecue Beans

·         12 Buttery Rolls

·         Serving utensils & plates

Want more you can also order or add Dickey’s new Rack N’ Roll Platter ($26), which includes a full rack of ribs and six buttery rolls, to satisfy your crew well into overtime.

Laura Rea Dickey CEO of Dickey’s stated “Barbecue and big games are a perfect match. We think folks will find our Tailgate Party Pack is a win for parties and a much higher quality alternative to wings or pizza for a similar price,”… “Plus, the Tailgate Party Pack can be ordered for delivery, so no one misses any football. We’re excited to bring slow-smoked barbecue into the delivery space, giving guests more time to enjoy the season.”

Both the Tailgate Party Pack and the Rack N’ Roll platter, along with Dickey’s full menu, can be ordered at dickeys.com. The majority of Dickey’s Barbecue Pit locations are also launching delivery directly through the restaurant or through a third party delivery partner. Orders may also be placed by calling 866-Barbecue.

Dickey’s Barbecue Pit has partnered with more than 50 delivery services across the United States to ensure guests can enjoy Texas-style barbecue without leaving the comfort of their homes. Most Dickey’s Barbecue Pit franchises have partnered with vendors like GrubHub, DoorDash, UberEats, Postmates and Amazon, amongst many others. Through Dickey’s newly redesigned website, guests have the ability to easily place online orders for what is most convenient to them whether it be delivery through these partners or in-store pickup.

Interested in learning how Foodservice Solutions 5P’s of Food Marketing can edify your retail food brand while creating a platform for consumer convenient meal participation, differentiation and individualization? Email us at: Steve@FoodserviceSolutions.us or visit:  www.FoodserviceSolutions.us for more information.